In late September, I wrote that the race for the Republican presidential nomination was a muddle.

I wrote that "Rudy Giuliani leads in virtually every national poll but trails in the key states that may decide the nominee" and that "Mitt Romney leads in key states but continues to rank an anemic fourth in national polls."

I also wrote that though Mike Huckabee was "everybody's choice for vice president, could he actually sneak away with the top spot?"

Today, Giuliani still leads in the national polls but trails in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Romney leads in New Hampshire, has lost his lead in Iowa and South Carolina, and has moved to third place in national polls.

And Mike Huckabee, now leading in Iowa and South Carolina, has, incredibly, moved into second place nationally.

In other words, the Republican race is still a muddle. Or worse.

"The Democratic field is fluid, and the Republican field is chaos," says Ken Duberstein.

Duberstein, who is not aligned with any candidate, was Ronald Reagan's chief of staff from 1988 to 1989 and deputy undersecretary of labor for Gerald Ford.

He is extremely well connected within the Republican Party.

And he thinks the Republican race is so confused that ice and snow could play a major role.

"Things are totally up in the air, and the result may be impacted by the weather in Iowa and New Hampshire more than any other factor," he says.

If the Iowa Caucuses were being held tonight instead of Jan. 3, the weather would be cold, snowy and icy, and only very dedicated voters might be willing to venture out to vote at 7 p.m., as the caucus system requires.

Bad weather usually favors the candidate with the best organization — or the most tire chains.

So could this give a boost to Romney, a candidate who has spent several million dollars building an organization in Iowa?

Probably. But there is a counter-theory that says the voters who feel most passionate about their candidate turn out in bad weather. And that might boost Huckabee.

Weather aside, Duberstein feels the Republican race will be decided by one factor: who can win next November.

"Electability is absolutely critical in the Republican race," he says. "This is about holding the White House, not about a litmus test or about ideological purity. It is about who can hold on to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave."

That might favor Giuliani. According to a New York Times-CBS News poll released Tuesday: "Among Republicans, 43 percent viewed Mr. Giuliani as their most electable candidate, compared with 18 percent for Mr. Romney and 13 percent for Mr. Huckabee."

But polls can turn around quickly once voters actually start voting. Win early, and you may win often.

And this, Whit Ayres believes, could favor Huckabee.

Ayres, who is unaligned, is a pollster and consultant who worked in Lamar Alexander's 1996 presidential campaign and in numerous Senate and gubernatorial races.

"In states that reward one-on-one campaigning, the retail politics states, you could see Huckabee doing extremely well," he says.

Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two contests, are "retail" states, where candidates spend a lot of time talking to voters face to face.

"It is clear Huckabee has enormous political talent and fine skills as a one-on-one campaigner," Ayres says. "The real question is whether he can retain that momentum in states that require massive amounts of media."

Ayres, an expert on Southern politics, also thinks Romney's Mormonism is not going to be as big a negative factor as some think in South Carolina, where there are many evangelical Protestant voters.

"The Mormon factor is overblown," Ayres says. "It is still a factor — you can't dismiss it. But demographic characteristics tend to fade in importance once the voters get to know the candidates. That is true of gender and race, as well."

But how about Giuliani's "win late, win it all" plan? Can it work?

Can he lose the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and then come back to win Florida on Jan. 29 and in the 20-plus states holding contests on Feb. 5 to win the nomination?

Mathematically, it is certainly possible.

But can any candidate give up all that early momentum and still be a winner?

"Giuliani will be a great test of that hypothesis," Ayres says. "If anybody can do it, he can do it. He has hero status, a national name and plenty of money. And after a career dealing with the New York press, it is hard for anybody to knock him off his game, get under his skin or make him lose his cool."

To find out more about Roger Simon, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.

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