Low Mortgage Rates Rooted in Europe

By James Woodard

June 2, 2014 5 min read

Today's exceptionally low mortgage rates in the U.S. are rooted in Europe and are contributing to our high level of home affordability.

"Important economies around the world are struggling, and we may be on the verge of a Euro-style trend before too much more time passes," according to a report from the National Association of Realtors.

"Efforts over there to produce more inflation and growth are beneficial to mortgage borrowers here for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that yields on our relatively safe-and-secure debt are very attractive to investors relative to that available from other places."

The NAR report noted that while our 10-year Treasury bonds are yielding about 2.5 percent, comparable investments available in Germany offer about 1.3 percent, in Japan about 0.6 percent, and "riskier" sovereign debt pays about a half-point more than Italy and Spain. U.S. yields are still attractive and safe, even considering currency exchanges and tax issues.

"The specter of stimulus by the European Central Bank underscores two considerable issues," the report noted, pointing out, "Growth in the Eurozone remains tepid and inflation is too low for their liking.

"Stimulus in the form of lower rates may only serve to make any of their offerings of debt less attractive to yield-starved investors, who may choose instead to send their money here, keeping our own interest rates from rising despite an improving economy — one featuring a touch more inflation of late," the report noted.

Q: Are higher-priced homes most likely to be underwater?

A: No, affordable homes — those most sought after by first-time homebuyers — are being kept off the market in part because nationally, those homes are almost three times more likely to be underwater than the most expensive homes, according to the Zillow Negative Equity Report.

The national negative equity rate fell to 18.8 percent in the first quarter, with almost 9.7 million American homeowners whose mortgage is underwater owing more on their mortgage than their home is worth.

The negative equity rate fell to 18.8 percent of all homeowners with a mortgage in the first quarter of this year, representing 9.7 million Americans. Negative equity is expected to fall to 17 percent by the first quarter of 2015.

About 30.2 percent of mortgaged homes in the bottom price tier are in negative equity, compared to 18.1 percent in middle tier and 10.7 percent in top tier. The "effective" negative equity rate, including those homeowners with 20 percent or less equity in their homes, is 36.9 percent.

Q: Are condos usually FHA-approved?

A: Surprisingly, only 30 percent of condo buildings are approved by the Federal Housing Administration, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors.

Nationally, only about 30 percent of condos are approved for FHA financing, and even fewer are VA-approved, said Realtor Rita Tayenaka, a member of NAR's federal financing and housing policy committee. She presented a video pointing out the problem at the Conference & Trade Expo in Washington, D.C.

A condo project that receives FHA or VA approval is more likely to attract a larger pool of qualified buyers.

Q: Is a service available to help homeowners predict the future value of their homes?

A: Yes, a new service was recently announced that helps in making an accurate value estimation. Zillow, a real estate online site, announced it has introduced the Zestimate forecast, a consumer-focused predictive tool to estimate the future value of individual homes.

The program predicts the estimated change in a home's value over the next 12 months in both dollars and percentages. For example, if a home at 123 Main St. has a current value of $200,000, the forecast for that home in one year might be $210,000, which means it is predicting that home's value will increase by 5 percent.

This new feature helps consumers and real estate professionals better understand how local housing trends can affect the future value of specific properties.

To find out more about Jim Woodard and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.

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