Economists View Impact of Presidential Hopefuls on Housing

By James Woodard

May 30, 2016 5 min read

So many people want to buy or sell a home in today's market, this will probably be a major factor in how they vote in this year's presidential election.

One real estate organization sponsored a survey of top economists to see how they felt about candidates now seeking the nation's top office. A portion of their report follows:

"A presidential win for presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democratic candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders would negatively impact the housing market and overall economic outlook for the United States, according to experts surveyed in the latest Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey.

"Overall, the economists surveyed predicted home price appreciation would be up 4 percent year-over-year at the end of 2016, higher than predictions of 3.7 percent indicated in the previous survey. However, if Sanders or Trump is elected, the economists would lower their expectations both for home values and the overall performance of the U.S. economy.

The quarterly survey, sponsored by Zillow and conducted by Pulsenomics, asked more than 100 housing experts about their expectations for the housing market.

"With the upcoming presidential election, the respondents were also asked about the anticipated impact of several presidential candidates on U.S. housing and the economy.

"Respondents least liked Sanders' democratic socialism and Trump's unpredictability. Clinton also received mostly positive ratings from the panelists."

Personal note: This month (June) marks the 45th year I've been writing this real estate column, beginning in 1971. It has been a fascinating ride, reviewing and reporting on these news and trends.

Q: When will home sales show substantial growth?

A: We may be turning that corner now. Here's a portion of a report from the leading housing organization.

"Despite ongoing inventory shortages and faster price growth, existing-home sales sustained their recent momentum and moved higher for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors.

"A surge in sales in the Midwest and a decent increase in the Northeast offset smaller declines in the South and West. Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million in April from an upwardly revised 5.36 million in March. After last month's gain, sales are now up 6.0 percent from April 2015.

"Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says April's sales increase signals slowly building momentum for the housing market this spring."

Q: What is the typical age of today's Realtors?

A: Results of a recent survey on this subject was recently released by the National Association of Realtors. Here is a portion of a special report:

"The median age and years of experience of Realtors has decreased as new and younger professionals enter the industry, according to the 2016 National Association of Realtors Member Profile.

"The survey's results are representative of the nation's nearly 1.2 million Realtors(r); members of NAR account for about half of all active real estate licensees in the U.S.

"The typical member reported a median of 10 years of experience in real estate, down from 12 years in last year's report. Realtors median age also decreased from 57 in 2014 to 53 in 2015, the lowest it has been since 2008 when the median age was 52."

Q: Are home foreclosures declining?

A: RealtyTrac, an established source for housing data, released its second quarter of 2016 U.S. Residential Property Vacancy and Zombie Foreclosure Report. It shows nearly 1.4 million (1,398,046) U.S. residential properties (1 to 4 units) representing 1.6 percent of all residential properties were vacant as of May 2016, up 2.7 percent from the previous quarter when 1,361,628 U.S. residential properties were vacant.

A news release included details of the findings?

"The report also shows that 19,187 U.S. residential properties actively in the foreclosure process were vacant (zombie foreclosures), representing 4.7 percent of all residential properties in foreclosure — down 3.1 percent from the previous month and down 30.1 percent from a year ago."

To find out more about Jim Woodard and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com. Jim Woodard's email: [email protected].

Photo credit: Dale Cruse

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