Future home price expectations are a key motivator for today's buyers. This and other affordability factors will determine the speed of our total housing recovery.
More than 100 experts are split on the root causes of mounting housing affordability concerns in several large housing markets nationwide and expect home values to end the year up 4.4 percent, on average, according to the latest Home Price Expectations Survey.
The survey of 106 economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists asked panelists to predict the path of the Home Value Index through 2018 and solicited opinions on the main cause of declining home affordability. The survey was sponsored by real estate information marketplace Zillow, and is conducted quarterly by Pulsenomics.
Panelists were asked to identify the primary cause of declining affordability from a list of choices.
"Given all of the distortions currently affecting the housing market, one could probably make the case that things could, and maybe should, be a lot worse. We're certainly in a better spot than we were just a couple years ago, but the housing market remains far from anyone's definition of 'normal,'" said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries.
The panelists who indicated that abnormally high rates of home value and rent growth were most to blame for decreasing affordability were also asked if those price spikes might risk inflating a new bubble. More than 90 percent of respondents said these price spikes were either already inflating a bubble or had a moderate to high risk of inflating one.
Q: What's the new plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?
A: That's been a key point of discussion for several months. Plans are now being finalized. The Federal Housing Finance Agency recently released its strategic plan for the conservatorships of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In its report, the FHFA focused on tenets going forward for the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). It maintains foreclosure prevention activities, reduces taxpayer risk, and builds a new, single-family securitization infrastructure.
The first point in the strategic plan calls for a continuation of foreclosure prevention activities, as well as providing credit availability for new and refinanced mortgages to "foster liquid, competitive, and resilient national housing finance markets."
The FHFA noted that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac helped maintain broad liquidity in the secondary mortgage market — $6.4 trillion since 2009 — helping to stem losses and provide opportunity. However, the agency feels some originators have overcompensated, creating an environment that results in the rejection of many loans that would meet the GSEs' credit standards.
Going forward, the FHFA would like to extend access to credit to more borrowers who are worthy while keeping risk low.
Q: Do most luxury-home buyers in California prefer an oceanfront home?
A: Luxury-home buyers in California preferred hilltop homes rather than oceanfront properties by a margin of four to one, according to the California Association of Realtors' Luxury Real Estate Consumer Survey.
Preference for luxury homes in hilltop locations is a nationwide trend.
Hilltop homes even outranked oceanfront homes and ocean-view homes combined (38 percent). Buyers also purchased luxury homes located near a golf course (16 percent), mountain area (12 percent), resort area (9 percent), lakefront (4 percent) and ski resort (1 percent).
The vast majority (79 percent) of luxury-home buyers said they purchased the home as a primary residence. Ten percent purchased the home as a vacation or second home. Nine percent purchased the home as an investment or rental property, and 2 percent cited "other" reasons.
Q: Are FHA mortgage costs rising too high?
A: The Federal Housing Administration's rise in mortgage insurance fees prevented an estimated 375,000 purchases last year, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. FHA has more than doubled its mortgage insurance fees since 2010, adding up to about $340 a month to some buyers' payments compared to $125.
FHA raised its premiums to replenish its capital reserves, which were depleted during the housing crisis and because of a high number of defaults, it was reported.
NAR and Community Home Lenders Association, among other groups, are calling for the agency to partially roll back and restructure its fees, particularly since FHA is set to regain its financial footing later this year.
The agency will have a capital reserve balance of $7.8 billion in 2014, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
To find out more about Jim Woodard and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.
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