Right before New York's Democratic mayoral primary, political seers declared with enormous confidence that Andrew Cuomo would easily beat Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani. They were wrong.

Now, about a month before the general election where Cuomo is running as an independent, the same blowhards are barking that Mamdani has it all but in the bag. They may be wrong again.

It was believed that Mayor Eric Adams had split the non-Mamdani votes with Cuomo and that if he left the race, Cuomo's poll numbers would rise. A handful of hours after Adams did drop out, CNN's "Chief Data Analyst" Harry Enten is bellowing that the mayor's departure proved to be "a giant dud" for Cuomo, because his numbers improved just slightly.

Many Adams supporters probably didn't even know then that their candidate had bowed out. This was a beautiful fall Sunday. Enten said he based his conclusion on "poll after poll" without naming the polls. Nor did he say when the polls were taken.

It's true that the general election is only about a month away. It's also true that a lot can happen in a New York minute.

The Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa, still holds a good piece of the electorate. Almost everyone, many Republicans included, want him to drop out to give Cuomo a better shot. Despite his fiery vows to stay in the race, Sliwa might still do the right thing and end his campaign.

Give Mamdani this: He is a master politician. He's centered his campaign on making New York more affordable at a time when the cost of housing keeps rising. But a New York mayor cannot unilaterally impose a rent freeze. And any rent freeze would affect only rent-stabilized apartments, a fraction of the apartments.

Interviewers keep asking Mamdani that if he's elected, would he moderate his views. He answers that he will erect a "big tent" and listen to everyone. That's the clever way of not answering the question.

The Cuomo side is now running ads. They note that Mamdani has no experience running anything. He's held paying jobs for all of three years and now imagines he can oversee the city's $104 billion budget.

Mamdani is now trying to erase his 2020 outrageous and childish call to "defund" and "dismantle" the New York City Police Department. But just three years ago, State Assemblyman Mamdani voted to cut 1,300 officers from a "racist" NYPD.

It happens that lower-income New Yorkers of color tend to live in neighborhoods highly reliant on police for protection. That can explain why Black voters preferred Cuomo in the primary, as did voters in the Bronx.

And other constituencies are unlikely to go his way.

Most Jews do not like Mamdani's dancing around his "intifada" talk or his vow to arrest Benjamin Netanyahu when he visits New York. Jews may have mixed feelings about the Israeli leader but want to know why only him? They have their guesses. About 12% of city residents are Jewish.

For Italians, about 6% of the population, there's the picture of Mamdani giving the middle finger to a statue of Christopher Columbus, alongside a tweet demanding, "Take it down." Columbus remains a hero to many Italian Americans.

And whites of all backgrounds may not appreciate Mamdani's promise to raise taxes on richer, "whiter" neighborhoods.

The temperature on primary day was a torrid 105 degrees. Many Cuomo supporters, believing their man was a shoo-in, undoubtedly figured he would win without their venturing outside into the heat. And in the end, only 12% of all registered voters chose Mamdani.

The stakes have changed. And there are many more New York minutes to go before Nov. 4.

Follow Froma Harrop on X @FromaHarrop. She can be reached at [email protected]. To find out more about Froma Harrop and read features by other Creators writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators webpage at www.creators.com.

Photo credit: Patrick Boucher at Unsplash