Looming Fiscal Cliff Awaits If Lawmakers Fail to Act

By Daily Editorials

May 31, 2012 4 min read

Want to kill economic growth? Revisit the recession?

Easy. Just let the tax hikes and spending cuts coming in January take effect.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office last week estimated that the coming "taxmageddon" would suck $607 billion out of the economy in 2013, likely pushing the economy back into recession. The CBO said that without congressional action, the economy is likely to contract at an annualized rate of 1.3 percent in the first half of the year. Growth of 2.3 percent is projected later in the year.

The CBO report analyzed the effects of the end of the George W. Bush-era tax cuts, which expire on Dec. 31, along with a payroll tax cut. At the same time, cuts are in the pipeline for the Defense Department and other federal agencies as part of a deal arranged during the debt limit debacle last summer.

The fear — a realistic one — is that neither side will budge, forcing another colossal showdown in Washington in the wake of the national election this December. Republicans, of course, want to extend the Bush tax cuts and protect the Pentagon from spending cuts. President Barack Obama has promised to veto efforts to change the coming spending cuts unless Republicans agree to let taxes rise for households earning more than $250,000 a year.

With the election looming, it's unlikely any deal can be struck until November, which leaves the matter in the hands of a lame duck Congress with time running out. As a result of the expected contentious negotiations and the timing, there is a sense of grave uncertainty. The Washington Post reported recently that defense contractors were hiring fewer people and accountants were warning clients that their favorite tax breaks might disappear. From hospital executives to university presidents, there is concern.

"How do you plan for chaos?" Marion Blakey, president of the Aerospace Industries Association, told the Post. "It's almost a unique moment in government because there's so much at stake. And there's nothing that inspires confidence that this will get done."

We agree that taxes on the wealthy could rise with very little effect on the economy. And as a matter of fairness, that's probably what should happen. However, this train wreck of a solution requires statesmanship — in other words, the "c" word (compromise). Are there any statesmen or stateswomen left?

The Republicans are mostly to blame for the expected stalemate. They've become so imbued with the idea of tax-cutting purity (and signed pledges vowing never to raise a single tax) that they have provided themselves with very little wiggle room. For them the "c" word has become a four-letter word.

But Democrats, led by Obama, share some of the responsibility for this as well. Congress should revamp the tax code with the goal of lowering rates while closing loopholes for corporations and individuals alike. Obama's own deficit-reduction commission recommended just that a year and a half ago, but the president ignored its recommendations.

The CBO estimates are sobering. What the nation does not need now, especially with Europe teetering atop its own fiscal house of cards, is another recession. This is avoidable. If our representatives in Washington act responsibly. Will they?

REPRINTED FROM THE MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL

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