In retrospect, removing Venezuela's socialist-drug thug dictatorship was Domino One — the first criminal regime to topple in the Trump administration's calculated campaign to give China a harsh and instructive taste of Beijing's own grand strategy of resource deprivation and denial.

As I write this column, Iranian threats to oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz continue to jack global crude prices. As gasoline prices rise, myopic U.S. and European media hype long-term economic malaise — precisely the propaganda line Tehran wants media to peddle. With their ballistic missile inventory dwindling, hysteric economic fear spawned by threatening Hormuz is the only strategic weapon the decimated ayatollahs possess.

China's communist government, however, now sees quite clearly it confronts a grave strategic threat to its so carefully plotted, so astutely prepared and so prudently executed Slow War of Strangulation and Eventual Domination waged against America and the world.

Yes, a long name for the war, but it captures the pace (slow — too slow for legacy media to notice), the key operation (strategic deprivation) and the Middle Kingdom's goal.

As noted in last week's column (Ending the Ayatollahs' 47-Year War on the World), "in 2025, China imported an estimated 1.38 million barrels per day in sanctioned oil shipped from Iran in 'ghost fleet' tankers." All told, Ayatollah Iran supplied 11% of Chinese annual oil imports. The rest of the Middle East? Another 44%, the majority of the oil shipped by tanker from the Persian Gulf, from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, etc.

Without Middle Eastern oil, China's No. 2 on the planet economy suffers extreme strangulation — and stalls.

My bet: U.S. Navy and U.S. Air Force already control the Strait of Hormuz. By the first week of April, it will be clear the U.S. and Israel have destroyed the ayatollah regime. When the ayatollah regime collapses, whatever and whoever replaces it will ultimately share control of Hormuz with the Gulf Arab states and the U.S. Central Command.

As for the Iranian port of Jask on the Gulf of Oman (Indian Ocean, outside Hormuz)? Strategic speculators pegged Jask as a future Chinese Navy port, similar to Pakistan's Gwadar. From Jask, Chinese ships and aircraft (including drones) could either police or threaten the Strait. China could also easily reach the Bab al-Mandab, the strait connecting the Indian Ocean and Red Sea (leading to the Suez Canal).

One maritime chokepoint after another, all within Beijing's slowly expanding operational reach.

My bet: The next Iranian government will make sure Jask doesn't become a Chinese asset. Beijing will pay for supporting the ayatollahs with weapons, technology and political cover.

For the record, China imported 390,000 barrels per day of sanctioned oil from Venezuela, a little over 2% of its annual imports. Losing 2% is not make or break. However, Venezuela was a base in the Americas for undermining South American and Caribbean nations. The Trump administration is in the process of eliminating Chinese control of port facilities in Panama. From Venezuela, China could threaten to close the Panama Canal. But no more.

Cuba? With Venezuela no longer supplying fuel oil, the remnant Castro communist regime is confronting unrest. Cuba may be Domino Two, before Iran becomes Three.

Last year, China pulled the strangulation noose when it began restricting U.S. access to its rare earth minerals. That was more than a squeeze on the U.S. economy. Rare earths are essential to manufacturing high-tech weapons and communications systems. Denying rare earth imports and imposing manufacturing restrictions harmed U.S. defense capabilities and advanced data systems.

Sun Tzu, China's great 5th-century B.C. strategist, argued the greatest commander is one who never has to fight. From Book 3, "The Art of War": "... (N)eutralizing an adversary's forces without battle is absolute perfection." In other words, the superior general defeats his enemy psychologically and economically and never risks destructive combat.

That was China's plan. Gaining control of rare earth mining and refining. Cornering the market on cobalt. Dominating global manufacturing of first consumer goods, then autos, then shipbuilding and weapons manufacturing. And positioning itself to interdict shipping lanes — from the Middle East, through the South China Sea.

The U.S. is on the verge of being able to deny China 60% of its annual imported oil requirements. It can already deny any of its adversaries these key maritime shipping choke points: Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab, Strait of Malacca (Singapore), Panama Canal, Strait of Gibraltar. Allies and friendly states control the Suez Canal, the Turkish Straits and the Skagerrak (Baltic-North Sea). If global warming really sets in, perhaps Russia will try to contest the U.S. in the Bering Strait?

To find out more about Austin Bay and read features by other Creators writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate webpage at www.creators.com.

Photo credit: Arthur Wang at Unsplash