Austin Bay from Creators Syndicate https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay Creators Syndicate is an international syndication company that represents cartoonists and columnists of the highest caliber. en Thu, 14 Dec 2017 22:19:24 -0800 https://www.creators.com/ http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Austin Bay from Creators Syndicate https://cdn.creators.com/features/austin-bay-thumb.jpg https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay ae486439d13886b5e446ca2306964f12 The Real Challenges for American Intelligence Agencies for 12/13/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/12/17/the-real-challenges-for-american-intelligence-agencies Wed, 13 Dec 2017 00:00:00 -0800 <p>In October 2003, former Secretary of Defense and former CIA Director James Schlesinger observed that "major organizational change (in American intelligence agencies) is not the salvation. I would submit the real challenge lies in recruiting, fostering, training and motivating people with insight."</p> <p>Insight. Sounds arcane, mysterious, rare, tough to describe to human resources directors much less cable television talk show hosts &#8212; and indeed it is. </p> <p>Yet this highly individual talent is indispensable to American security. That's why Schlesinger &#8212; ever the erudite patriot &#8212; said identifying it, hiring the individual possessing it and then nurturing, cultivating and promoting this gifted employee in a government institution jumbled by Beltway bureaucratic procedures and garbage politics, is "the real challenge" to real leaders in U.S. intelligence services.<p>Updated: Wed Dec 13, 2017</p> cc6b6867ff42976de0c0c899961dace3 The 'Two Big Wars At Once' Threat Returns With A Vengeance for 12/06/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/12/17/the-two-big-wars-at-once-threat-returns-with-a-vengeance Wed, 06 Dec 2017 00:00:00 -0800 <p>A quick scan of existing and emerging threats to the U.S. and its vital interests ought to end any lingering debate. The Pentagon must prepare to fight two simultaneous wars in two widely separated geo-political theaters.</p> <p>Right now, I don't think we can do it.</p> <p>During the Cold War, the U.S. prepared to fight globally, but the Asia-Pacific region and Europe were the primary theaters. As the Cold War faded, "two major regional contingencies" became a buzz phrase for large regional wars. Planners often added the word "conventional." In a "conventional contingency," the U.S. did not expect the use of or encounter nuclear weapons.<p>Updated: Wed Dec 06, 2017</p> 75bc077dc55b270ae842ada9b5fb911a The Islamic State's Bloody Defeat In Mosul for 11/22/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/11/17/the-islamic-states-bloody-defeat-in-mosul Wed, 22 Nov 2017 00:00:00 -0800 <p></p><p>On June 21, as Iraqi ground forces neared the center of Mosul's Old City, Islamic State fighters detonated explosives and destroyed the al-Nuri Grand Mosque.</p> <p>For eight centuries, the building symbolized Mosul, which is why, in June 2014, ISIS senior commander Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi proclaimed the ISIS caliphate from a Grand Mosque balcony. Speaking freely in the great house of worship demonstrated Al-Baghdadi's control of Mosul. As an internet propaganda tool, video of his declaration confirmed he was a caliph, the religious-political ruler of an expanding militant Islamist territorial state.<p>Updated: Wed Nov 22, 2017</p> 85bfc8b3c93b473aa92ce1ed07691331 Have Iranian Threats Spurred a Saudi-Israeli Alliance? for 11/15/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/11/17/have-iranian-threats-spurred-a-saudi-israeli-alliance Wed, 15 Nov 2017 00:00:00 -0800 <p></p><p>The Iranian-sponsored November 4 ballistic missile attack on Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh, continues to roil the Middle East &#8212; and it should.</p> <p>Last week, I wrote a column arguing that missile attack signaled an escalation in the simmering regional war between Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia and Iran's Shia Islamic revolutionary regime. Their proxy war in Yemen would become more intense and could spread to the Persian Gulf littoral.<p>Updated: Wed Nov 15, 2017</p> b91fab0068571ec6a4c1e4d88e6076e0 The Saudi Arabia-Iran War Escalates for 11/08/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/11/17/the-saudi-arabia-iran-war-escalates Wed, 08 Nov 2017 00:00:00 -0800 <p>On November 4, a U.S.-made Patriot missile intercepted an Iranian-manufactured Burkan H-2 short-range ballistic missile as its warhead plunged toward the international airport outside Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's capital.</p> <p>Though the missile was launched from Yemen, with good reason Saudi leaders called the attack an act of "aggression" by Iran. A human rights organization said the "indiscriminate" missile attack was "an apparent war crime."</p> <p>Under any circumstances, the missile attack signals that war between the Sunni Muslim kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran's Shia Islamic revolutionary regime is escalating and their proxy war in Yemen will become more intense.<p>Updated: Wed Nov 08, 2017</p> 6863e67f0629bfcf9040e228f5a3b587 North Korea's Criminal Sovereignty for 11/01/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/10/17/north-koreas-criminal-sovereignty Wed, 01 Nov 2017 00:00:00 -0700 <p>The economic and political sanctions regimen the Trump Administration has placed on North Korea and its corporate enablers may help undermine one of the dictatorship's most important industries: its global organized crime operation.</p> <p>Military and diplomatic analysts agree that criminal organizations influence several ongoing wars. But crime syndicate participation is rarely a decisive factor.</p> <p>However, trans-national narcotics trafficking organizations like Mexico's notorious drug cartels have the financial resources to bribe key government and law enforcement officials. They can also hire gunmen with military-level combat skills and arm these gunmen with better weapons than the federal police.<p>Updated: Wed Nov 01, 2017</p> cc5833f97d3766e52b3b5fb12198ea68 Niger and the West African War on Terror for 10/25/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/10/17/niger-and-the-west-african-war-on-terror Wed, 25 Oct 2017 00:00:00 -0700 <p>In his October 23 Pentagon press conference describing the U.S. military presence in Niger, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford demonstrated it is possible to address serious national security issues and finesse the current spate of domestic political hysterics.</p> <p>"This area (in west Africa) is inherently dangerous," General Dunford said. "We're there because ISIS and al-Qaida are operating in that area."</p> <p>Here's the predicate to Dunford's statement: on October 4, four U.S. Army Green Berets died in combat in Niger. They were part of a 12-man U.S. detachment accompanying 30 Nigerien soldiers on a patrol returning from the village of Tongo Tongo, near Niger's border with Mali. Five Nigerien troops died in the battle.<p>Updated: Wed Oct 25, 2017</p> 6486b0ea209495774de59d8b167a5f18 As Benghazi's Port Re-Opens, Libyan Factions Start to Talk for 10/04/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/10/17/as-benghazis-port-re-opens-libyan-factions-start-to-talk Wed, 04 Oct 2017 00:00:00 -0700 <p>The UN and western diplomats are trying to put Libya back together again.</p> <p>Previous diplomatic attempts to glue the broken state have failed &#8212; bloodily. The Libyan curse of regionalism is a major reason.</p> <p>World leaders underestimated the damage done to Libyan society by dictator Muammar Gaddafi. During his four decades in power, Gaddafi savaged the country, leaving a legacy of torture and corruption. He exacerbated factional resentments. The factional resentments fed the regional rivalries and distrust that, in turn fired, the episodic warfare that has shredded Libya from 2014 through mid-2017.<p>Updated: Wed Oct 04, 2017</p> 531fb21455dd5ef8f16291c2e11543aa The Nationalist Aspirations in Kurdistan and Catalonia for 09/27/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/09/17/the-nationalist-aspirations-in-kurdistan-and-catalonia Wed, 27 Sep 2017 00:00:00 -0700 <p>Kurdistan and Catalonia both have long histories. That's one reason many Kurds and Catalans argue that they deserve their own nation states.</p> <p>Iraqi Kurds voted September 25, and it appears a majority support establishing an independent Kurdistan in what is now Iraqi Kurdistan. Though the referendum is advertised as "non-binding," Kurdish leaders say the results will empower them to negotiate a "peaceful secession."</p> <p>On October 1, Catalans will vote on secession from Spain. Current polls indicate Catalan voters will narrowly reject secession. However, ham-handed Spanish attempts to halt the referendum have sparked a pro-secession uptick.<p>Updated: Wed Sep 27, 2017</p> c13b294080998cfc393b35e6fa03874f Russia's War in Ukraine and War Games in Belarus for 09/20/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/09/17/russias-war-in-ukraine-and-war-games-in-belarus Wed, 20 Sep 2017 00:00:00 -0700 <p>Russian President Vladimir Putin's personally expressed dismay at the collapse of the Soviet Union connects directly to two current events: Russia's war of conquest in Ukraine and the Russian Army's large-scale war games in western Russia and Belarus. By the way, the Russian military calls its war game enemy "The Western Coalition." The name deliberately incriminates NATO, the USSR's Cold War nemesis and an outfit on which Putin ritually blames 21st century Russian woes.</p> <p>A minor dispute rages over the precise translation of Putin's April 25, 2005, USSR lamentation. Did he say that the USSR's demise was "a major geopolitical disaster of the (20th) century" or that it was the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century"?</p> <p>The BBC and NBC News chose the "catastrophe" translation. Both renditions confirm the USSR's collapse appalled the former KGB colonel, who is now Russia's president.<p>Updated: Wed Sep 20, 2017</p> cc7393e83d26295c18ec0b91dbfb093e Congo's Vicious Kasai War Could Reignite The Great Congo War for 09/13/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/09/17/congos-vicious-kasai-war-could-reignite-the-great-congo-war Wed, 13 Sep 2017 00:00:00 -0700 <p>In August 2016, small but violent conflict erupted in the Democratic Republic of Congo's south-central Kasai region.</p> <p>In the world beyond the Kasai region's five provinces (Kasai, Kasai-Central, Kasai-Oriental, Sankuru and Lomami) the cause of the violent outburst was unclear. According to initial reports, it involved a local grievance.</p> <p>The Kasai region's relative isolation contributed to the lack of information. However, President Joseph Kabila's government wanted to limit news coverage. A self-serving decision made by his regime and related to the upcoming November 2016 national election was the "local grievance" that deeply offended hundreds of thousands of citizens within the region. Members of the dominant Luba tribe scorned Kabila's decision as an arrogant cultural insult and an outright political crime.<p>Updated: Wed Sep 13, 2017</p> b0810603e0047fc0d702f181ae909e4b Yemen's Odd War Is A Human Disaster for 09/06/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/09/17/yemens-odd-war-is-a-human-disaster Wed, 06 Sep 2017 00:00:00 -0700 <p></p><p>Three civil wars with roots in Arab Spring revolts continue to plague the Arab world: Yemen, Syria and Libya.</p> <p>Syria receives the most international attention. With over 500,000 dead that's understandable. Libyan battles over oil facilities also draw headlines.<p>Updated: Wed Sep 06, 2017</p> 0f56b43df343f75d414884716fce3285 North Korea Targets Japan -- 1998 and 2017 for 08/30/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/08/17/north-korea-targets-japan-1998-and-2017 Wed, 30 Aug 2017 00:00:00 -0700 <p>On August 31, 1998, North Korea bluntly informed Japan that the next time the Korean War escalated to all-out combat, Tokyo would be a target.</p> <p>Pyongyang used a multi-stage Taepodong-1 intermediate range ballistic missile to deliver the diplomatic message as a military object lesson. The first stage of the rather poorly constructed missile landed in water west of Japan not that far from Russian territory. The second stage slammed into the North Pacific about 300 kilometers east of Japan.</p> <p>Poor construction, however, had a virtue. A splash on either side "bracketed" Japan. Kentucky windage said the next shot could hit a Japanese home island.<p>Updated: Wed Aug 30, 2017</p> 997a6abb1238560f00068041218f16bb Interring the Islamic State in Iraq for 08/23/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/08/17/interring-the-islamic-state-in-iraq Wed, 23 Aug 2017 00:00:00 -0700 <p></p><p>President Barack Obama's 2011 decision to withdraw U.S. combat troops from Iraq was not based on the political and security conditions within the country. Obama's 2012 re-election campaign determined the withdrawal timetable. Obama intended to sell himself as a war-ender no matter the real world conditions.</p> <p>No debate &#8212; Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Iraqi government blundered, repeatedly. But in Iraq American troops served as mentors, honest brokers and a reassuring security presence. When the GIs left the Maliki government's sins multiplied. One of its worst mistakes was sectarian favoritism in the security forces &#8212; giving unqualified Shia Arabs commands at the expense of more qualified Sunni Arabs, Kurds and other minorities.<p>Updated: Wed Aug 23, 2017</p> f0865b1a4fa5d10e77dd3d2004c40fee Practicing Coercive Diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula for 08/16/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/08/17/practicing-coercive-diplomacy-on-the-korean-peninsula Wed, 16 Aug 2017 00:00:00 -0700 <p>On August 11, the U.S. island territory's Homeland Security Office of Civil Defense posted a website fact sheet entitled "In Case of Emergency...Preparing for an Imminent Missile Threat" in response to North Korea's threat to launch a volley of ballistic missiles in Guam's direction.</p> <p>The fact sheet included a warning reminiscent of late 1950s Cold War "duck and cover" advice American citizens were to follow during a nuclear attack: "Do not look at the flash or fireball...it can blind you."</p> <p>Guam, located west of the International Dateline, likes to call itself the place "where America's day begins."<p>Updated: Wed Aug 16, 2017</p> b3eee7d9fac920fd153158fad417c7d6 Floating A Diplomatic Solution In The South China Sea for 08/09/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/08/17/floating-a-diplomatic-solution-in-the-south-china-sea Wed, 09 Aug 2017 00:00:00 -0700 <p></p><p>Beijing's slow but belligerent invasion of the South China Sea has created Cold War conditions in the sub-tropical zone. </p> <p>For diplomats, the question of the moment is this: Can we craft a political accommodation that can keep the peace while ensuring sovereign territorial rights?<p>Updated: Wed Aug 09, 2017</p> 8c631e1c7cda8cc0257b21d41588d012 Venezuela Slides Toward Civil War for 08/02/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/08/17/venezuela-slides-toward-civil-war Wed, 02 Aug 2017 00:00:00 -0700 <p></p><p>In the early morning hours of August 1, Venezuelan secret police arrested the country's most prominent opposition political leaders, Leopoldo Lopez and Antonio Ledezma, and quickly hauled them off to prison.</p> <p>Lopez is the gutsy leader of the Popular Will Party and a former mayor of Caracas. Ledezma also served as mayor of Caracas and is a long-time critic of President Nicolas Maduro and his bombastic predecessor, Hugo Chavez.<p>Updated: Wed Aug 02, 2017</p> 762373c764a765ec04f2ffb40d7524e5 Time for a Free World Bullet for 07/26/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/07/17/time-for-a-free-world-bullet Wed, 26 Jul 2017 00:00:00 -0700 <p></p><p>The allies should use their anti-missile missiles to intercept a North Korean ballistic missile test launch. Whatever its operational code name &#8212; Operation Return Of Serve is amusing &#8212; intercepting a Pyongyang missile test has military and political utility.</p> <p>North Korea's regime, led by rotund dictator Kim Jong Un, has invested its scant resources and Kim's personal prestige in its weapons programs. The regime has bet on strategic policy of implacable belligerence backed by the development of long-range offensive missiles and nuclear weapons. <p>Updated: Wed Jul 26, 2017</p> b9a844ebf3aede84f0a44664156cfd75 Mosul and Urban Warfare for 07/19/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/07/17/mosul-and-urban-warfare Wed, 19 Jul 2017 00:00:00 -0700 <p>On July 10, Iraqi prime minister Haider al-Abadi declared coalition forces had won a "total victory" in their fight to free the city of Mosul. Since June 2014, the unfortunate city had been occupied by ISIS terrorists.</p> <p>Abadi's claim of total victory was premature. In the following days, several small firefights erupted around the city. ISIS fighters reportedly entered a liberated village outside Mosul. Had they been hiding, planning to stage "stay behind" attacks on coalition forces? Or were they fleeing? Who knows. In city fights, flickering resistance may continue for weeks after the major battle is done.</p> <p>Offensive operations to free Mosul officially began on October 16, 2016. "Shaping operations" to prepare for the decisive assault arguably began in 2015. Throughout the campaign the Iraqi government, fragile as it is, remained patient and persistent. To defeat the Islamic State, Iraqi Army and police units conducted operations with pro-Iranian Shia militias of suspect loyalty and Kurdish militias who disdain Baghdad. The government sought U.S. and NATO help, air support first and foremost, but also special operations personnel, the U.S. Marines and Army artillery units, and intelligence and logistics support.<p>Updated: Wed Jul 19, 2017</p> 06c9d52ac8aece7aef1f729bf3691888 Responding to North Korea's Fourth of July ICBM for 07/12/2017 https://www.creators.com/read/austin-bay/07/17/responding-to-north-koreas-fourth-of-july-icbm Wed, 12 Jul 2017 00:00:00 -0700 <p></p><p>North Korea's Kwasong-14/KN-14 intercontinental ballistic missile test launch was by far the Fourth of July's most disturbing firework.</p> <p>Spoiling America's birthday was Pyongyang's goal. In fact, for the Kim dictatorship, it's an old hat propaganda tactic. On July 4, 2009, North Korea test-fired seven short-range missiles. <span class="column--highlighted-text">July 4 missile displays send a provocative signal: the North Korean dictatorship is targeting the U.S.</span><p>Updated: Wed Jul 12, 2017</p>