Why are some presidential candidates doing unexpectedly well this year and some doing unexpectedly poorly?

I think you can sum it up in one word: strength.

Some candidates are projecting strength from the stump, and others are not.

Strength has been an especially potent force in our politics ever since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

When Republicans picked up seats in the congressional elections of 2002, Bill Clinton had a simple analysis: "When people are insecure, they'd rather have somebody who is strong and wrong than someone who's weak and right."

And in 2004, George Bush had a simple campaign theme: Vote for me or die.

If Americans voted for him, he said, he would protect the homeland against terrorism. Democrats were not unpatriotic, he said, they were merely weak and ineffective.

Further, Bush sold the notion that fighting in Iraq protected Americans at home.

"This is a war in which, if we were to leave before the job is done, the enemy would follow us here," Bush said.

Since then, the Iraq war has become a symbol of strength misdirected, strength misspent, strength squandered. And the Republicans suffered for it in the congressional elections of 2006.

But strength remains a critical factor in this presidential election.

Take a look at the Democratic side. Which candidate projects the most strength?

That's easy: Hillary Clinton.

She is so relentless about projecting strength she will not admit even to human error. Others may swivel and snivel and say they made a mistake voting to authorize the Iraq war, but not Hillary.

She will explain her vote, but she will not apologize for it.

And in every debate, she has radiated a calm, above-the-fray toughness.

While, early on, some of her backers worried that she was not likeable and warm enough on the stump, her campaign decided that was secondary to her being forceful, firm and tough.

Barack Obama projects healing and unity on the stump. He is cool. He is cerebral. He is sincere. He wants to bring us together.

In his latest television ad, he says America must break away from "conventional thinking" and restore its leadership in the world by "reaching out to friend and foe alike."

This is not a strength message. It is a peace message. It is a typical Democratic message. And Hillary is beating Obama in the national polls by more than two to one.

John Edwards began his campaign with a message of compassion and sacrifice. Eradicating poverty was the centerpiece of his campaign. On the stump, he is warm and inviting. But needing to get past his "Breck Girl" image from 2004, he got into trouble this year over what? Haircuts. D'oh!

Edwards does not project strength. And he is running a poor third in the national polls.

Look at the Republican side. Rudy Giuliani continues to lead in the national polls. His theme has not changed from day one, and his theme is strength.

"The Democrats do not understand the full nature and scope of the terrorist war against us," he says. "Never, ever again will this country ever be on defense waiting for (terrorists) to attack us if I have anything to say about it. And make no mistake, the Democrats want to put us back on defense."

Sound familiar? It is the Bush theme from 2004: The Democrats don't get it, and I do. The Democrats can't protect you, and I can.

Mitt Romney radiates competence on the stump. He is smart, and he is friendly.

But you look at him and you think: CEO. You do not look at him (yet) and think: commander in chief. He is running fourth in most national polls.

Fred Thompson has a strong image on film, but unfortunately for him he has to campaign in person. At least a little. And thus far, his campaigning has begged the question: Can a candidate sleepwalk his way to the presidency?

Describing Thompson in a recent article in The New York Times, Michael Luo wrote: "But he spoke with his chin often buried in his chest, his voice largely monotone, and he cleared his throat or coughed repeatedly, prompting some to wonder if he might be ill."

Which is not a strong image.

John McCain's campaign nose-dived when immigration was a hot issue — his moderate stance on it did not project strength — but now he is trying to claw his way back. His theme is familiar.

"When we lost the war in Vietnam, we came home, the enemy didn't follow us home," he tells audiences. "These people want to follow us home."

As a former POW, he has proved his strength and toughness. But he is 71 and needs to show it every day.

Which brings us to Mike Huckabee, who is still polling at about 5 percent. He is a funny guy. He is a nice guy.

His signature line is: "I am a conservative, but I am not mad at anybody."

Which may be why he is polling at about 5 percent.

Strength is not going to be the only factor in this presidential election, but it is going to be a critical one.

Which means this election is going to be very tough and very nasty.

Because in strength elections, nice guys finish last.

To find out more about Roger Simon, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.

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