Why did the murderous Hamas attack on Israel happen now? What comes next?

First, why now?

Just last month, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said, "If you have the leading Islamic country in the world making peace with Israel, I think that truly is transformative." All year, the Biden administration has been boasting of its work to bring Saudi Arabia and Israel together to bring peace to the Middle East.

Such a deal would indeed be transformative, but in a way that challenges the Hamas Covenant's call to "obliterate" Israel. The deal would almost certainly have included concessions to Palestinian Arabs intended to bring regional peace closer. So, Hamas took to terrorism to undo the deal. Those despicable videos of ruthless murders of innocent Israeli citizens were posted and publicized as a warning to potential peacemakers. Hamas is threatening next to "regrettably" execute Israeli civilian hostages.

A peace agreement among three of its sworn enemies would also be a devastating blow to Iran's strategic position in the Middle East. Iran supplied Hamas with the funds and arms that made the terrorist raids possible. Iran must have urged, ordered or consented to the attacks.

Political crises in both Israel and the U.S. also made it a favorable time to launch the attacks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's intention to limit judicial power led to mass street protests last spring. Israeli air force pilots threatened not to report for duty. The Ministry of National Security, which oversees the border police, is headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir, who was appointed for the right-wing votes he could bring to the Netanyahu coalition and not for any expertise or administrative ability.

And what about the United States? On the day of the attack, there was no speaker of the House of Representatives. How long might this political stalemate delay any emergency funds for Israel? The Republicans, who hold a majority in the House, seem ready to step away from support for Ukraine against Russian aggression and terrorism. Could Iran and Hamas have drawn a lesson there? On the other side of Capitol Hill, Sen. Tommy Tuberville is single-handedly corroding U.S. military readiness by blocking the promotions of senior officers.

The ramifications of the Hamas terrorist attacks will spin out over years if not decades. But there are short-term consequences I'd put money on.

Netanyahu positioned himself as the indispensable protector of his country's security. He failed. Only two weeks before the surprise Hamas attack, he told the United Nations General Assembly that Israel was "at the cusp" of that peace agreement which "will go a long way to ending the Arab-Israeli conflict." A predecessor as prime minister, Golda Meir, was pushed out of office within a year for allowing Israel to be surprised by an attack a half-century ago. Netanyahu's fate will be the same.

The Saudis couldn't let Iran be seen as the protector of Palestinian Arabs while they themselves aligned with the Jewish state. As a result, the Saudi Arabian foreign ministry did not condemn the Hamas attacks, but instead pointed to Israel's "occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and the repetition of systematic provocations" as responsible. The march toward a Saudi peace agreement with Israel is now frozen in place if not in full retreat.

Over two decades, Israel hunted down the terrorists who murdered Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics. The country will be just as single-minded with the Hamas leaders and terrorists responsible for the deaths of over a thousand citizens in recent days. (As a percentage of its population, 1,000 Israeli deaths is equivalent to 12 times the number of Americans who died in the crash of the Twin Towers on 9/11.) Remember, there are videos of the perpetrators. Like its nemesis Netanyahu, Hamas is bound to lose its power over the Gaza Strip.

Only in the longer term do things begin to look more hopeful. The United Arab Emirates was "appalled" by the actions of Hamas. Saudi Arabia should also come to see killing babies and taking hostages is not a basis for sympathy. Any resuscitation of the peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia will have to include consultations with the Palestinian Arabs on the benefits an agreement will bring to them.

Lord Palmerston, the 19th century British prime minister, said that Britain had no eternal allies or enemies, only eternal interests. Even in the wake of the heinous terrorist attacks, it is in the interests of both Israel and Saudi Arabia to stand for peace and stability and to oppose Iranian-fostered terrorism. I look forward to a future where Hamas will be crippled or gone; a new prime minister will hold office in Israel; Saudi Arabia will make peace with Israel; and Palestinian Arabs have set forth on the road to justice and democracy.

In Keith Raffel's checkered past, he has served as the senior counsel to the Senate Intelligence Committee, started an award-winning internet software company and written five novels, which you can check out at keithraffel.com. He currently spends the academic year as a resident scholar at Harvard. To find out more about Keith and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators website at creators.com.

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