I studied British history in college and grad school and am struck by the parallels between the British Empire in days of yore and the United States today.

The era of British supremacy began with the defeat of Napoleon in 1815 and lasted well over a century. By the end of World War II, the United States had taken over the top spot. And yet, over the past decade, the United States has appeared to be following the example of its onetime mother country as its pillars of political, economic and military supremacy are cracking if not crumbling.

A century ago, the British Empire controlled roughly a quarter of the world's land and a little over one-fifth of its population. Excluding its contested claim in Antarctica, Britain and its remaining overseas territories now account for less than 1% of the world's land and population. A coffin nail was driven into any pretense of imperial power when the U.K. returned Hong Kong to China in 1997 under an agreement guaranteeing a high degree of autonomy. In 2020, the British government said China's new national security law constituted "a clear and serious breach" of the agreement, but the U.K. had little leverage to enforce it.

While the British still sing "Britannia, rule the waves," the U.S. has been more subtle in exercising its imperial power. The postwar American order has relied less on direct rule than on alliances, military bases, institutions and economic power. As the prominent historian Sir Niall Ferguson wrote, the United States "is an empire, in short, that dare not speak its name."

The United States has exerted its military and diplomatic power through NATO in Europe and a network of alliances and security treaties across Asia and the Americas. Trump is signaling the abandonment of the American version of empire. For example, he has said he would not always defend a NATO country under attack and in 2025 refused to rule out force in claiming Greenland, a territory belonging to NATO ally Denmark. During the first Trump administration, French President Emmanuel Macron even said, "Europe can no longer entrust its security to the United States alone."

A parallel economic system has underpinned American power, including the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development for policy coordination, the World Trade Organization for a rules-based trading system, and the International Monetary Fund for monetary stability. Trump's repeated use of sweeping tariffs and tariff threats is prompting U.S. trade partners to look elsewhere for economic leadership. In a speech last January, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged the years when "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security and support for frameworks for resolving disputes." But he concluded, "This bargain no longer works."

Around 1860 the British Empire produced about 29% of the world's manufactured goods. A decade later it accounted for roughly 24% of global economic output. Those days are long gone. In 2024 China generated an estimated 32% of world manufacturing value added, more than double the United States' 15%. For every electric car manufactured in the United States, China manufactures more than 10. All the while, the Trump administration has rolled back federal policies designed to encourage electric vehicles and other clean-energy initiatives, including ending federal clean-vehicle tax credits.

In 1879, Zulu warriors, armed primarily with assegai spears and clubs, defeated a British force using artillery and firearms at Isandlwana. An imbalance between cheap weapons and advanced military technology is playing out again today in the Persian Gulf, where American forces are trying to counter low-cost drones with multimillion-dollar missiles and aircraft. An Iranian Shahed-136 attack drone runs around $35,000.

The British colossus that once bestrode the world as the leader in manufacturing, political reach and military power is no more, supplanted by the U.S. in all three areas. During the eight decades of the American-led postwar order, real world GDP per person has risen to nearly five times its 1950 level, adult literacy has climbed from roughly 56% to 88%, and global life expectancy has increased from 46 years to 73 years.

British history shows how the tides of history can recede. The question is whether the United States is following that historical precedent with an administration whose policies undercut treaty relations, retreat from economic cooperation and weaken military power.

In 1903, the U.K.'s Colonial Secretary Joseph Chamberlain announced, "I believe in a British Empire ... and I do not believe in a Little England."

Before the end of this decade, the U.S. will need to decide whether it will continue to support the alliances, military strength and open economic system that formed the foundation of its global influence.

The current administration is answering no, turning inward and abdicating the global leadership the United States has exercised since the end of World War II.

A renaissance man, Keith Raffel has served as the senior counsel to the Senate Intelligence Committee, started a successful internet software company, and had six books published including five novels and a collection of his columns. He currently spends the academic year as a resident scholar at Harvard. You can learn more about him at keithraffel.com. To read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators website at creators.com.

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