The Impact of Declining Homeownership

By James Woodard

May 20, 2013 5 min read

The homeownership rate has reached its lowest point since 1995. Capital Economics predicts further declines before a rebound occurs.

The analytics firm predicts that the homeownership rate will fall to a low of 64 percent. If and when it does, the market will have about 9 million more renters than when the homeownership rate peaked.

One of the major contributors to the ongoing decline in homeownership is the high level of foreclosures that continues to challenge the market.

While home affordability has reached record high levels, for renters, housing cost burdens have been steadily increasing. According to the annual Housing Landscape report from the Center for Housing Policy, 26.4 percent of working renters spent more than half of their household income on housing costs in 2011.

The share is an increase from 2008 when 22.8 percent of working renters had a severe housing cost burden. CHP provided two reasons the burden of renting has grown: falling incomes and rising rental housing costs.

For example, the report found the median housing cost for working renters rose nearly 6 percent between 2008 and 2011, yet median incomes fell more than 3 percent. Renters are definitely feeling the financial squeeze.

Q: To what extent are home prices rising?

A: Increases are now in, or very close to, double-digit territory, according to CoreLogic's Home Price Index report. Home prices — when including distressed sales — rose by 10.5 percent in March compared to the year before, marking the biggest annual gain since March 2006, it was reported.

CoreLogic's pending HPI projects prices in April will show a 9.6 percent annual gain and rise by 1.3 percent month-over-month.

In Fannie Mae's monthly National Housing Survey, more than half of those surveyed (51 percent, up from 48 percent in March) said they expect home prices to climb in the next year, while 10 percent expect declines. Thirty-five percent expect no changes.

April's report marks the first time in the survey's three-year history that more than half of respondents projected price gains.

Q: Are home foreclosure filings still rising?

A: No, foreclosure filings have dropped to a six-year low. RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure properties and real estate data, recently released its Foreclosure Market Report for April 2013.

It shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 144,790 U.S. properties in April, a decrease of 5 percent from the previous month and down 23 percent from April 2012. Total foreclosure activity in April was at the lowest level since February 2007, a 74-month low.

The report also shows one in every 905 U.S. housing units had a foreclosure filing during the month.

"The April numbers indicate that the pig is moving through the python when it comes to deferred foreclosures in judicial foreclosure states," said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac.

Q: Why are outdoor kitchens so popular this year?

A: Perhaps it's because so many homeowners want to really enjoy the upcoming summer months after a long period of stress and uncertainty.

Homeowners want to enjoy the summer months — and sometimes spring, fall and winter, too — with the sizzle of their outdoor grill. But running back and forth between the kitchen and the barbeque can get old quickly, it was noted in a report from the National Association of Home Builders.

"Outdoor kitchens make life easier for those who enjoy grilling their meals and entertaining outdoors, making the deck or patio an extension of the family's living space.

"It also can enhance the home's resale value. With the proper amount of forethought and planning, the homeowner can be enjoying meals in the great outdoors in no time," it was reported.

Q: In what areas are home prices rising most rapidly?

A: One recent study found that asking home prices posted the strongest gains in cities where job growth was also solid. The study was conducted by Trulia.

In a report, Jed Kolko, Trulia's chief economist, provided two reasons to explain the link between jobs and housing: job growth attracts newcomers to an area who look for housing, and job finders often look for their own place to rent or buy.

To find out more about Jim Woodard and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.

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