Congress this week is expected to take what now is a largely symbolic vote on the nuclear arms deal the Obama administration and five other nations negotiated with Iran. With the fate of the agreement sealed, the focus must quickly turn to making it work.
Vote counters expect both the House and Senate to reject the pact, given that the Republican majorities in each chamber are united in their opposition. But President Barack Obama has secured more than enough Democratic votes in the Senate to uphold his promised veto.
That means the deal will go into effect, which was the practical reality from the moment the administration shook hands with Iranian negotiators. Even if the GOP could muster the bipartisan support needed to override a veto, the other nations involved in the talks have signaled they will go ahead with the lifting of sanctions against Iran.
Now what?
The promise of the agreement is that it will delay Iran's march toward nuclear weapons capability by at least a decade, and hopefully longer. During that period of containment, it is hoped the hard-line regime in Iran will soften, and that increased economic interaction with the rest of the world will make good behavior in Iran's best interest.
That's a lot to hope for from a nation whose preoccupation is dominance of its region and the upheaval of its neighbors.
The flaws of the pact have been well discussed. Integrity of the inspections protocol negotiated independently with the International Atomic Energy Agency is suspect, and the pact itself affords Iran the opportunity to delay and thwart inspectors if it chooses.
Sanctions will lift once Iran begins taking steps to comply with the agreement, rather than after it has demonstrated a long-term commitment to compliance. That could rather quickly place up to $150 million into the hands of a regime that already uses 65 percent of its military budget to promote terror and unrest.
Iran will retain much of its nuclear infrastructure, which can be restocked and restarted in very short order.
No good answers have been presented to the question of what happens if Iran does violate the pact. Are the United States and its allies willing to take military steps to force compliance? Doubtful. Obama speaks of a "snap back" of sanctions should Iran cheat, but the reality is that once global economic ties are reestablished, it will be almost impossible to reinstate effective sanctions.
Accepting the reality that this is an imperfect agreement is the first step in the next phase of relations with Iran. It's also smart to assume Iran will cheat, as it has for decades when it comes to its nuclear program.
America and its allies will have to commit more resources to intelligence gathering. The short break-out period for Iran to reach nuclear capability - roughly one year - demands that it be constantly and consistently watched. The inspections process spelled out in the deal, even though favorable to Iran, must be vigorously enforced.
While it's naive to assume the current sanctions can be snapped back, as the president says, the parties to the pact must be willing to take meaningful punitive action if Iran strays from its promises. What that response looks like should be the subject of ongoing talks.
If the agreement is seen as a pathway for Iran to ultimately get a nuclear weapon, its neighbors will want one, too. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and others must be convinced proliferation is not an inevitable course for the region.
Finally, Iran should be taken at its word when it states, as it did this summer, that Israel is an illegitimate state that could soon be wiped off the map. Military support for Israel must increase, and must be concentrated on its ability to deter a nuclear strike.
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