House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is in a pickle of his own making over next steps to address the nation's debt ceiling. McCarthy is trying to play a game of chicken with President Joe Biden to see who will cave first. The deadline is fast approaching before the United States defaults on its debts unless McCarthy and his narrow Republican majority in the House agree to raise the debt ceiling. But his own party doesn't seem to know what it wants, and any choice McCarthy makes will mean risking a rebellion he can't politically afford.

Ex-President Donald Trump's radical MAGA supporters in the House are the ones putting the heaviest pressure on McCarthy to hold the line against Biden. They want to attach future spending limits to the debt ceiling talks, and Biden is holding firm in saying that the debt ceiling is not negotiable because raising it is required to cover past spending that now must be paid for, versus the separate issue of future spending (and future deficits).

If the United States can't be relied upon to pay its past bills, the results promise to be catastrophic and with far more expensive political and economic repercussions than what would result just by raising the debt ceiling. A default would send the global economy off a cliff, sparking a revenue-reducing recession and a U.S. credit-rating downgrade. Interest rates would spike on U.S. debt and make it even more expensive for the U.S. to borrow money. McCarthy cannot win if he allows a default to occur.

But GOP hard-liners have demanded all kinds of concessions in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida has insisted on a balanced-budget amendment, no Social Security or Medicare cuts, and no tax increase. Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida demands a work requirement for Medicaid recipients. Rep. Chip Roy of Texas, one of the most high-profile anti-McCarthy rebels in January's speakership fight, wants to condition the debt ceiling on tighter border security. Rep. Greg Pence of Indiana, the former vice president's brother, has said he won't vote to raise the debt ceiling under any circumstances.

Meanwhile, the MAGA political action committee attached to Trump's presidential campaign is attacking Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for supporting cuts to Medicare and Social Security. In other words, Trump and his loyalists are taking those two expensive programs off the table in the budget talks. Military hawks refuse to discuss cutting another big-ticket item — defense. Others are adamant about maintaining the deficit-exploding tax cuts from the Bush and Trump administrations.

McCarthy faces impossible choices: He can go against Trump and his loyalists, or he can defy the defense hawks, or he can fight the tax-increase refuseniks. Or he can do nothing and let America default. Heads, he loses. Tails, he loses.

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