President Joe Biden suggests he has run out of patience and options to resolve the two-decade military disaster that is Afghanistan. On Wednesday he announced the withdrawal of all U.S. forces from the country by Sept. 11, the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. It's safe to say, given the Taliban's rapid resurgence across the countryside and the abysmal response of Afghan government forces, that either all-out civil war or a fairly quick Taliban sweep into power is in that country's future.
Why should Americans care anymore? Biden is correct in his assessment that this nation is exhausted by an endless Afghan war that defies all military or political solutions. Still, there are several reasons why everyone should care. This was, after all, the country that hosted al-Qaida as it planned the 9/11 attacks. Since the U.S. invasion, millions of Afghan women have celebrated their ability to attend school, work in offices or, heck, just walk down the street alone without having male relatives' accompaniment or permission.
For a president who campaigned as a defender of women's rights, Biden would consign Afghan women to re-enslavement under the Taliban. They, along with men who have thrived under the democratic freedoms brought by the invasion, will be first to swarm the U.S. Embassy, Saigon-style, when the Taliban retakes Kabul.
In his speech Wednesday, Biden cited Taliban promises not to let Afghan territory be used again for terrorist attacks against the West. True, Taliban leaders know the heavy price they paid in 2001 for having hosted al-Qaida and are unlikely to make that mistake again. But some of the group's most horrific bombings, beheadings and Islamic street justice rival the worst atrocities committed by the Islamic State. They cannot be trusted.
Chances for a peace deal between Taliban and the Afghan government are nil at this point. The chances of government forces holding their own against a Taliban onslaught after the U.S. withdrawal also are virtually nil. The Afghan people, for all their love of the freedoms accompanying the U.S. occupation, have demonstrated repeatedly their unwillingness to stand and fight for what they cherish.
Perhaps Biden isn't telling Americans everything he has in the works. Perhaps he will leave behind a substantial residual force of U.S. Special Operations troops assigned off the books to the CIA and authorized to hold the Taliban in check. And with the right financial incentives, Pakistan also has been known to keep a tight lid on Taliban offensives.
The best outcome of all would be one in which Afghans finally take hold of their own destiny and refuse to be ruled by a rag-tag gang of outlaws. Maybe that's wishful thinking, but at this late stage, wishful thinking appears to be at the heart of U.S. strategic planning for Afghanistan's future.
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