Trump Comeback in High Gear

By Richard Morris & Eileen McGann

August 24, 2016 3 min read

Are you wondering whether Donald Trump can win?

Damn right he can.

In fact, in the past week and a half he's been winning. He's moved up in all polls and is tied or ahead in the two online polls (Zogby and L.A. Times/USC). He's stopped making mistakes and, without his gaffes to highlight, Hillary Clinton has absolutely no message.

Trump has given cogent and thoughtful speeches on the economy, terrorism and racism in the past week, and the response is showing in the polls.

Meanwhile things are not going well for Clinton. She has no message. She's completely ensnared in emails and her litany of lies that are unraveling day by day. Colin Powell has all but called her a liar — and the FBI discovered almost 15,000 new emails that the State Department did not originally received from Clinton's attorneys. And Judicial Watch has released additional emails that show how the Clinton Foundation regularly pushed for special access for their donors — and got it.

Our new book, "Armageddon: How Trump Can Beat Hillary," explains that this race will be volatile until the election. Thanks to your help, it's been on the top of the New York Times best-sellers list for the past month. On Sunday, it was No. 3!

Is Trump too far behind? No way. Compare Gallup's August data in past elections with the outcome.

—In 1980, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan were tied in August. Reagan won by 19.

—In 1988, Michael Dukakis was 17 ahead. George H.W. Bush won by 8.

—In 2000, George W. Bush was 16 ahead. He finished one-half point behind Gore.

—In 2004, John Kerry was ahead. George W. Bush won by 4.

And two final points:

1. Trump consistently polled an average of 5 points below his actual vote share in the primaries. Voters may be embarrassed to admit they are for Trump. That may be why he's winning online polls but losing phone polls.

2. Donald Trump voters are downscale, late deciders who aren't really felt in polls until the very end.

So stay the course. We can win and are coming back strong.

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