Why Iowa?

Now lets see, a high school quarterback of the state championship team is picked by the NFL Patriots to start the SUPER BOWL this year?????? That is essentially what you have with Sen. Obama..Less than 500 days of national experience in the Senate?????.....are the democrats really going to put up another Mcgovern/Dukakis type candidate...to get clobbered......will all you genius types tell me what one state Obama can or will win? If you can't,,,, it is time to get behind someone who can break the Republican hold on the White House and break the legislative gridlock we are mired in now. THINK. We want someone who can win in the general election. It is time for the elder Democrats to step forward and educate the younger Democrats about winning. Please

Susan, I'm afraid that you have to be perceived, at least a little bit, as a Clinton shill.
Let's just hope that either Edwareds or Obama knocks this recent Clinton incarnation out of the race, and dispels the myths that Clinton politics have propogated forever.
Clintonian politics and triangulation have been equally responsible for the cynical, corrupted, and disenfranchised place that most of the American people occupy in our alleged democracy today as the horrible, horrible administration of George Bush

Nice try Ms. Estrich shilling for HRC in a backhanded way. You diminish Obama's experience. Fact is what experience does HRC have? She got into the Senate through her husband's machine and connections
. Even Ted Sorenson recently laughed about her qualifications saying that his three kids dspent a lot of time in the White House and that doen't qualify them.

The Presidential Race, My Take



By Alexander P. De Filippi
Sunday, January 06, 2008


Mainstream republicans have reasons to celebrate and to worry, from the news coming from the Iowa caucus this past Thursday January 3. In effect, Mike Huckabee, the mainstream candidate and future presidential republican nominee, won easily the election. The media calls Mitt Romney “the establishment candidate” because he has money, the true is; the real establishment candidate is Huckabee, who represents the George W. Bush line in all matters, from free trade, to immigration plus his pro-life stance. The mainstream or establishment candidate in the Republican Party is not determined by the amount of money or name recognition of the candidate, but by the base of support within the Republican Party that the candidate has. Governor Mike Huckabee has on his favors the two main factions of the Republican Party, the Christian right and the business community, no one of the other republicans in the race count with those two elements of support. Giuliani, McCain, Ron Paul, have to divide among themselves the fiscally conservative, non religious right, which is located mostly in the east and west coast, and that does not surpass more than twenty percent of the republican electorate across the country.

The second good news for republicans came from the democrats results, the establishment candidate, Senator Hillary Clinton, came on third place. I call her the establishment candidate because she counts with the media support and the money coming from the business community located mostly in California and New York. It is very difficult to foresee that Barack Obama could win a presidential contest against Mike Huckabee, therefore if the democrats nominate Senator Obama they would be loosing the presidential election, a presidential election that based on the results coming from the 2006 congressional election is up to the democrats to loose.

The sobering or sour note for republicans came from the Iowans participation in the caucus, Iowa isn't New York, Iowa is a conservative state that went for George W. Bush in 2004 and slightly for Al Gore in 2000. Therefore, the fact that the people participating in the democrat's caucus was two and a half greater than those participating in the Republican caucus is a bad news for republicans. Iowa has only seen benefits for the last seven years from the George W. Bush administration, Iowans should be grateful of republicans, also, in that state, the grass root republican machine is almost as good as the one they have in the south, in fact the Christian republican grass root machine runs well even in New York City. The Iowan local press isn't liberal either, therefore that massive participation of people, including independents, in the democrat's caucus, is impressive and should put the republicans on notice that something as unusual as the awful results of the congressional and gubernatorial race of 2006 could happen again this year.

The democrats conundrum. The democrats have the momentum with the American electorate this year as they had it on 2006, therefore wining the presidential race should not be a problem for them. Nevertheless, in spite of the favorable winds, the democrats find themselves unable to nominate a good candidate; any of the three main contenders, Obama, Edwards and Clinton is an easy target for republicans. Any of those three should loose in a race against Huckabee, any of those three democrats will have to name a vice-president that can help them, maybe Al Gore? Vice-president again? I do not know. I believe the democrat establishment will be able to save Hillary Clinton becoming her the democrat nominee, unfortunately for democrats, she is a poor candidate, as any of the three just mentioned. Therefore, the democrats' faith depends of two factors, the vice-president they name and a repetition of the 2006 phenomena where independents and moderates, nationwide, broke for the democrats. The democrats could make easier for them to get the independent and moderate votes if they play the “minister card” against Huckabee. Independents and moderates, that make up easily twenty percent of the electorate, tend to be non religious, the reason they tend to be moderate or independents is become they do not take any position to the extreme, whether we talk about politics, environment or religion. In addition, in this occasion, the republicans, apparently, won't have the Hispanic support as they did in 2000 and 2004, the media has manipulated the immigration subject in such way that Hispanics, unfairly though, perceive republicans as anti-immigrants.

looks like u back the wrong horse again better luck next time. do yourself a favor and get real u have been lividng in a dream world long enough.

Susan
I am a conservative, you are one of a few "liberals" that I respect. Can we agree that no one is trying to drag the film industry out of Hollywood, or the financial hub out of New York. Iowa is as good a place as any to start the process, and if your premise that Iowa is not a good predictor of the eventual outcome, then what does it matter anyway? Just wait until super tuesday to comment on who is ahead or behind. The fact that Mr. Obama convincingly won the Demacratic nod is proof positive that Iowans aren't predisposed to voting for the white fella, but proof of the contrary. Will you also please disclose that you are a Clinton supporter, and that Iowa showed the nation that the likes of Mr.Romney, and Ms. Clinton weren't able to purchase the election.
Respectfully,
Rob Williams
Des Moines, Iowa.

Your viewpoint appeared in the January 9 Quad City Times. Iowa is not important in the general election? Seems to me that the Clinton campaign thought so in 1992, when he campaigned here in August and on October 31, a few days before the election. I worked on the October event in Davenport and know that they placed a great value on winning the state. I also recall that Iowa was considered an important swing state in 2000 and 2004. But reporters from the east or west coast - those who think that Minneapolis or St. Louis are small towns - just get themselves into a real snit when they have to go places where their teeth might chatter. Well, my friend, the same chill can be found in Michigan, Illinois and Ohio. Even Massachusetts. If you can't stand the cold, go to Florida, where elections are positively banana republican.
Iowa a small state? Iowa is 30th in population; 26th in land area, placing it roughly in the middle of the states. Of a labor force of 1,675,000, non-farm employment is 1,529,000. Iowans are well educated and pay close attention to domestic and international issues. Many of us live in urban areas as large as 500,000. Maybe not L.A., but not the "sticks" either. The stereotyping is getting old. And Iowa is larger than New Hampshire in population and area. When can I expect to see your "Why New Hampshire" column?
Now, all the fuss made over the Iowa caucuses is generated from outside of the state. Iowa holds caucuses every two years. Caucuses are the method used to select delegates to conventions and choose party officials. The national media opts for the quadrennial invasion of the state, where they fly into a frenzy and then turn around and attack the process? If you don't think it is important then don't show up. If the press avoids the state maybe the candidates will do the same. Iowa would hold caucuses whether or not anyone running for any office showed up to campaign. Other states hold caucuses, so the process isn't unique to Iowa. When will you be attacking Wyoming, Nevada and Colorado?
Next time stay in your comfort zone. Then Iowans can hold their caucuses in peace and not have to put up with the daily grousing from an elitist crowd who know far less about this country than they think.