"Jobs Plan Tanks," screamed the Drudge Report the morning after the president's much anticipated speech. The headline linked to reports of the drops on the various stock markets, which are based, it appears, as much on global uncertainty as they are on the support, or lack thereof, of the president's plan.
But does it matter?
The problem with building expectations is that — whether you are a candidate or a president or a football coach — you almost never meet them. That's why the usual game is to hype things down rather than up so that you can do better than expected or, to borrow from Bill Clinton, the best politician I've ever met, assume the mantle of "the Comeback Kid." Which is precisely what Barack Obama needs.
In truth, the reaction was predictable. The logical recourse for a president seeking to create jobs is to spend money — either by appropriating it or by forgoing it in tax cuts. When I was in law school, legendary tax professor Stan Surrey taught us that tax cuts had to be viewed, in fiscal terms, as being no different from appropriations. "Tax expenditures" he called them. Conservatives, led by President Reagan and his Office of Management and Budget Director David Stockman, never bought it. Invoking JFK's 1960s tax cuts, they managed to convince the country that you could cut taxes and increase spending without increasing the deficit.
It didn't work that way, and years later, Stockman admitted that he never quite bought it even when he was doing it.
If you ask me, the Republican approach to tax cuts can only be justified by resorting to the old adage about a foolish consistency being the hobgoblin of small minds.
Last month, when the president proposed closing tax loopholes that benefit corporate America and letting the supposedly temporary Bush cuts for the richest Americans lapse, Republicans screamed bloody murder. And to the consternation of many liberals, the president backed down. Last night, when he proposed tax breaks for businesses that create jobs or raise wages, as well as new spending for infrastructure repair, they screamed bloody murder about the impact on fiscal policy. Go figure.
The short answer is that the Republicans aren't going to do anything to help this president, at least when it comes to economic policy. They'll never admit that their goal is to keep those unemployment numbers high, to wreak havoc with markets, to undermine the confidence that is necessary to any recovery. In fairness, their strategy makes perfect sense. Their goal is to put a Republican in the White House, and sadly, from a policy perspective, the easiest way to do that is by keeping the bread and butter off the table and the chicken out of every pot.
What became clear Thursday night is that the president is not going to win this election by seeking consensus in Washington, no matter how good his speeches are. If he couldn't get a deal on the deficit without looking both arrogant and weak, he isn't going to get a deal to pass his budget initiatives.
Voters say they want consensus, but if Obama tries to deliver it, he will lose. Which leaves the other option: picking fights; staking your presidency on what you believe in; being willing to put a marker in the sand, even if it stays there. In times like this, the only way to win the presidency may be to put it at risk in no uncertain terms. What Obama needs more than a good and balanced plan is a good and meaningful fight.
To find out more about Susan Estrich and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.
You accuse the Republicans of engaging in crass politics instead of serving the public; yet, you do not find fault with President Obama as he does the same. His speech was a campaign speech; it was not an attempt to resolve a problem. The first clue was that he could not/would not/did not explain how his plan would be paid for. If he were serious he would have. Ms Estrich, what is good for the goose is also good for the gander, so hold the President and his supporters to the same standards you do the Republicans and theirs. Otherwise, you come across as just another political hack, and you are not that.
Comment: #1
Posted by: Motley Wisdom
Sat Sep 10, 2011 5:59 AM
I read with interest your column this morning in The Advocate, "President must prove, yes, he can". The problem is he can't. He has repeatedly proven that he is out of touch with middle America, he has an elitist mentality and he surrounds himself with people that aren't remotely qualified for the job. You are a smart woman. Obama was part of the Congress that put us in this unbelievable economic situation and for the past several years the Congress that continually approved his poor decisions were Democrats. Blame Reid, Pelosi, their cronies and their leader, Obama for this mess, stop blaming Republicans and Tea Party members for disagreeing with him. This administration reminds me of the Emperor Has New Clothes, only he doesn't.
I look forward to your next column. Thanks.
Comment: #2
Posted by: ardis gomez
Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:58 AM
Revenue will increase due to tax cuts until the rate drops below 17% - that is considered an "optimal" value. Why? Because by reducing taxes people have more money to spend, which creates demand, which causes employers to hire. When an employee is hired, they become a *new* taxpayer (if they were currently unemployed). When this happens several good things occur: 1) new tax revenue is generated, 2) social security funds increase, and 3) unemployment payments reduce. This is basically why when Reagan reduced taxes - revenue when up NOT down! So why did the debt increase??? Because, despite federal tax revenue increases of about 6.5% each year, Congress increased spending by almost 7% each year... you do the math. So Reagan recipe for reducing taxes worked! - the problem was Congress passing budgets that increased spending even more than the revenue increases arriving. (Learned all this in basic economics - it's fairly simple stuff, in fact it was a "side column" in my econ book.)
Oh, I should note, you can confirm the above posting by downloading the yearly budgets and tax revenue collected off the Office of Management and Budget. By the way. ever since Obama became president, this information is more difficult to find on the site. It is still there in the form of an Excel spreadsheet - just a little harder to locate.
"They'll never admit that their goal is to keep those unemployment numbers high, to wreak havoc with markets, to undermine the confidence that is necessary to any recovery."
This is pure ad hominem argument, a sleazy, unprovable personal attack on those who disagree with your politics, and it is unworthy of someone calling herself a teacher. It is the best indicator that the speaker has no other solid argument.
Economist Robert J. Barro (from Harvard in today's NYTimes Week in Review) states that the problem with Obama's solutions to the economic mess are helter skelter and temporary, with further depredations to companies explicitly promised as opposed to a stable tax and regulatory future. These chaotic Obama proposals and his incessant attacks on businesses and business people ("fat cats") do more harm than good.
Comment: #5
Posted by: Stubbs
Sun Sep 11, 2011 10:12 AM
So Stubbs and Derek, and ardis and Motley Wisdom,,,,,,,
What is YOUR solution to this economic problem........?
People are hurting NOW. Do we just let them slowly starve to death? I see the same faces ,,,who don't want to stop spending a nickel in our overseas wars because rich fat-cats have interests in businesses that manufacture war products,,,, saying that any Jobs plan is too expensive.
Comment: #6
Posted by: robert lipka
Sun Sep 11, 2011 3:15 PM
The Democrats have put us in such a situation that there is no quick resolution to the problem. There are more and more people dependent on hand outs and the Democrats want to continue increasing that base. Ultimately the large percentage of voters will be/are dependents (on government) and continue to vote into power the same people that put them there. It the "progressive plan" for power and it appears to be working.
See Robert Lipka's postings!
Comment: #7
Posted by: Early
Mon Sep 12, 2011 8:19 AM
I never ceased to be amazed at how eaily smart people adopt mantras as facts. You can have tax rate reductions and a measure of increased spending without deficits, at least after an initial period of deficits while the tax changes accomplish their stimulative effect. Of course Ms. Estrich is referring to the deficits of the 1980s. The mantra is that Reagan cut taxes and increased spending and therefore produced record deficits. Wrong! He did spearhead a reduction in tax rates, but in addition a reduction in stifling regulations that had been handcuffing American businesses for years. The result of this? After an initial drop in tax revenues (which he wrongly responded to by agreeing to non-income tax increases), tax receipts for the federal government nearly doubled in his presidency. He did increase defense spending, but most of that was front loaded. By his second term, defense spending increases greatly leveled off. Ones opinion on these spending increases depends on your view of fighting the Cold War. That said, the increase in spending on non-defense programs dwarfed the defense spending increases. Whereas defense spending increased by about 150-160% during Reagan's years, non-defense spending increased by over 400%. There are your deficits, Susan. We could have kept all the defense spending of the Reagan years (and I for one believe this spending was excessive) and increased every item in the budget by 5% annually and ended up with a balanced budget by the end of his term. The 1980s deficits were the product of political competition. By God, if Reagan is going to get his defense spending increases, then we are getting our also. And as far as this idiocy that tax rate redutions equates to spending? Please. That defies logic unless you first assume that the money belongs to the government and therefore anything that reduces the amount of tax revenue it collects is actually a LOSS of some sort. Only central-controlling Leftists think like this. The real world does not.
Comment: #9
Posted by: Victor
Mon Sep 12, 2011 11:00 AM
Susan:
The idea that tax breaks for the very wealthy without any strings attached boosts jobs growth has proven to be a myth. Make that MYTH in capital letters. So what is the answer.
The rich make money by using workers to make money for them.....If they want $1,000 dollars and it takes 10 workers netting out $100 AFTER EXPENSES, guess what, Rich people hire them. But not if you give them the $1,000 up front.. Why would they risk the $1,000 on any hires and production.??? No incentive there. Trickle down does not work. It has been a proven fallacy for many years. What is needed is tax breaks AFTER a certain level of production.
We need to add to the American GDP rate and increase our sales of overseas goods. We wont do that by protecting our fat cats with no incentive to risk their capital.....they will just send the money overseas to more lucrative investments. Foreign workers work for a few pennies less than Americans and that kills jobs in America. Every time you talk to a person in a call center in India or some other foreign country , you are putting another nail in the coffin of American workers. Did you know that you can insist on speaking to an American every time you get one of those foreign accents and , by law, they have to transfer the call back to America?? Try it next time you get one of those foreign tech reps. You will save another American job by doing that.
We have to work hard to protect American jobs, We have to insist the rich people invest in Americans to make their profits and not sell us out for a few pennies less.
Re: robert lipka
Good luck with "we have to INSIST the rich people invest in Americans." You can't tell them what to do with THEIR money. They will invest it when the government gets off their back.
Comment: #11
Posted by: Early
Tue Sep 13, 2011 8:13 AM
Re: robert lipka
Good luck with "we have to INSIST the rich people invest in Americans." You can't tell them what to do with THEIR money. They will invest it when the government gets off their back.
Comment: #12
Posted by: Early
Tue Sep 13, 2011 8:17 AM
So tell me again why we should fall in line to pass a program, that is proposed by a person who has failed in the past, and not only failed, but by his own words is unpatriotic.
Now that is the definition of stupid.
His program failed. If you tell a person your plan will keep unemployment below 8% and increase jobs, and it doesn't happen, that is easy to see as a failed program. There are no excuses. The man wanted the job, told us he was qualified and told us his plan would do as he said. It didn't. But what to be expected from a person that wants to spread the wealth.
As to unpatriotic. He stated that when President Bush was running up the debt, and he was senator voting for the increase, that President Bush was unpatriotic for this debt being increased. So by his own words, relating to his own actions the man in the oval office in unpatriotic.
Not a good combination a failed unpatriotic leader trying to tell us what to do.
Last night I gave up watching Monday night football to watch the Tea Party debate....something happened there that appalled me. No decent person could ignore what happened when debate moderator asked the folowing question. " If a 30 year ofl young man in perfect health decides Not to buy health-care insurance and suddenly goes into a coma, should we treat him or just let him die? When Ron Paul tried to answer this question , the Tea Partiers made it obvious with their reaction that the guy should die. What has happened to the party that once believed, or at least said they believed in RIGHT to LIFE ? No decent person could sit there and listen to these people cheer and not be appalled. Maybe they are ignorant of the fact that it is the law that such a person be treated at any hospital, but that is no excuse for the behavior of that audience. If you believe in RIGHT TO LIFE you have to be consistant. To cheer the possible death of a poor person is not Christian. I was appalled that NONE of the candidates weighed in for protecting the life of this mythical young man......That could some day be one of their relatives in that position.
"OUR" SATANIC "CORPORATIVISM"!
Most Respectful, submit This Most Patriotic and Most Faithful Message also personally and specially to a Nationally Significant Patriotic Friend. Thank you
OUR “MOST BELOVED” AMERICA'S MOST CROOKEDLY EVIL ANTI-AMERICAN “CORPORATIVISM”!
Most Respectfully, This Most Earnest Patriotic Appeal was also submitted to almost all of The Heads of Our Churches and to almost all of The Presidents and Provosts of Our Universities – “Personally”!
UNIVERSAL PSEUDO-CORPORATISM!!!
This Most-Loving Prayer was also addressed and mailed personally to all Top Politicking and Religious Leaders of The World!
THE WORST CRIME, EVER, AGAINST ALMIGHTY GOD'S HUMANITY – FOREVER?
(Also Truly Honoring Dr. Martin Luther King's Most Patriotic Legacy!)
The Nucleus of Our Whole World's Ever-Growing Suicidal Nuclear Crisis is created by No Other than The Most Defrauding and Most Greedy Ultra-Conservative and Ultra-Libertine Politico-Religionism Everywhere – Universally! Our Whole World has No True Religion Anywhere!
The Nucleus of The Most-Dominant Over-Ambition of Our Universal True Atheism is none other than The Most Voracious Globally Inhuman “Corporatist” Economic Exploitation: all by The Most Extreme Global Disregard for THE MOST FUNDAMENTAL BASIC UNIVERSAL HUMAN LITERACY and also for THE MOST FUNDAMENTAL UNIVERSAL GOOD-SAMARITAN BASIC HEALTH INSURANCE. THESE TWO TOGETHER INDEED CONSTITUTE ALMIGHTY GOD'S TRUE UNIVERSAL MOST ELEMENTAL DEMOCRACY'S MOST VITAL AS MOST ESSENTIAL MEANS FOR ALMIGHTY GOD'S TRUE INDIVIDUAL EQUAL OPPORTUNITY – TO REACH THOSE TWO MOST INDISPENSABLE ALMIGHTY GOD'S INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTAL HUMAN GIFTS (RIGHTS), NO MORE, NO LESS!!!
All of Our Vast World-Wide HUMANITY Perpetually Shackled – AS ILLITERATE AND INFIRM “HUMANITY” – of course including Our Western World, is ever more and more so “CRUCIFIED” as threatened with impunity by instilling in them “OUR” Religionist-Inculcated Utmost Fear of “GOING TO HELL” if they have “NO FAITH” – that is, if disobedient to “Our” Politico-Religionist False “Leadership - as just like telling them “THEIR ‘HEAVEN' IS ‘LIVING' IN OUR SATANIC EXPLOITATION”!
Our Totally Politico-Religionist Western World has always even tried to expand Our Most Voracious Greedy “Corporatism” to Our Islamic Eastern World's “Friendly” Governments, but I most strongly suspect that Islamic Religionism has an opposite but Equally Religionist Inhuman Self-Defense: when Our Western “Corporatist” Inhuman Intervention reach Their Eastern Critical Religionist Level – as in Our Unending Warring Perplexity with “Their Islamic” World - Their Islamic Religionist Counteracting General “'Inspiration'-To-Go-To-Heaven” is no other than Their Ultra-Terrorist “Salvific” Individual Self-Immolation!
ALL OF THESE, FOR SURE SO FAR, ARE THE MOST IRREFUTABLE PORTENDING SYMBOLISM OF A MOST-CERTAIN-GLOBAL-NUCLEAR-ARMAGEDDON: THERE IS NOT THE SLIGHTEST DOUBT ABOUT THE CERTAINTY OF THE WHOLE WORLD'S TOTAL HOLOCAUST!!! MAY WE REALLY AND TRULY PRAY, SO THAT WE ALL – TRULY AND SOLIDLY HONEST AMERICANS – REALLY ENABLE GOD THE ALMIGHTY TO BLESS (SAVE) OUR MOST BELOVED TRUE AMERICA!!! OTHERWISE, ANY OTHER “CRIME” OR”ABORTION” IS AN INNOCENT BY-PRODUCT!!!
"OUR" SATANIC RELIGIONISM!
Most Reverent, please submit This Most Patriotic and Most Faithful Message, also personally and specially, to a Nationally Significant and Patriotic Friend. Thank you!
“OUR MOST BELOVED AMERICA'S” MOST CROOKEDLY SATANIC ANTI-AMERICAN POLITICKING AND RELIGIONISM!
Most Reverent, This Most Earnest Patriotic Appeal was also submitted to All The Presidents of Our American Universities, and to Their Provosts – submitted to both personally!
UNIVERSAL RELIGIONISM AND POLITICKING!
This Most Loving Prayer is also addressed to All Top Religious and Politicking World Leaders – Most Faithfully!
This is all and only about The Most Criminal World-Wide RELIGIONISM AND POLITICKING EVER!
All that Our Whole Wide World has ever needed, and still presently needs foremost and more than ever, is A TRULY AMERICAN NATIONAL INCORRUPT REEVALUATION!
“MERRY CHRISTMASTIMES !!!” “HAPPY NEW YEARS!!!” “HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!!” “HAPPY NEW CENTURIES!
ALMIGHTY GOD'S TRUE NUCLEAR DEMOCRACY SHALL NEVER EXIST IN OUR AMERICA UNTIL BOTH TRUE DEMOCRACY'S UNIVERSAL MOST BASIC FUNCTIONAL LITERACY, AND UNIVERSAL MOST BASIC TRUE“GOOD SAMARITAN” HEALTH INSURANCE ARE CONSTITUTIONALLY COMPELLED AS MOST CRIMINALLY PUNISHABLE! THAT IS, UNTIL OUR INSATIABLE ULTRA-WEALTHY CORRUPT “CORPORATISM” GIVE A TRUE EXAMPLE FOR SUCH A SACRED UNIVERSAL HUMAN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY – FOR THE SAKE OF OUR MOST EXPLOITED AS MOST SUFFERING ILLITERATE AND POOREST HEALTH-UNINSURED AMERICAN BROTHERS!
Almighty God did not write His Bible just to “Inspire” The Implacable Religionist “Sacrosanct” Church-Like Corporations of This World to use IT as toilet paper; that is, to use IT as Such a Globalized, Religionist, Materialist, PIOUSLY MUM, AND SO ULTIMATELY EQUALLY SUICIDAL-TERRORIST,SUBLIMINAL INHUMAN EXPLOITATION!
Why ”THE TRULY UNIVERSAL CHURCH” – AS “FREE AND SEPARATE FROM THE STATE” – NEVER TAKE ALL OF THESE AS ITS TRUE DAILY PREACHING INITIATIVE – AS ITS TRUE RELIGIOUS LEADERS DID BEFORE???!!! BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT ANYMORE “THE TRUE SERVANTS OF ALMIGHTY GOD” (AS THEY SO FERVENTLY CLAIM) BUT OF THE GOVERNMENTAL “MOST COMFORTABLE” RAPACIOUS CORPORATIST MOST INHUMAN WORLD POLITICS OF EXPLOITAION!!!
WHY ABSOLUTELY NOBODY SPEAKS ANYTHING – SPECIALLY AT THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION TIME – ABOUT DENOUNCING AND UPROOTING ONCE AND FOR ALL THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF OUR “AMERICAN” ILLITERACY AND LACK OF TRULY DEMOCRATIC UNIVERSAL “GOOD SAMARITAN” ALSO INDISPENSABLE MOST BASIC HEALTH INSURANCE!
THE TRUTHFULLNESS EVER MISSING IN ALL OF OUR SUPER-POLITICAL SPEECHES, ALWAYS PRETENDING TO “HONOR” OUR MOST BELOVED AMERICA – AND MOST SORELY MISSING FOR OUR AMERICA'S SALVATION – IS THE TRULY POLITICAL, TRULY RELIGIOUS, AND TRULY PATRIOTIC DEMOCRATIC INSPIRATION!
WHY ARE WE SO SILANTLY MOST OBSTINATE AND MOST ANTIPATRIOTIC!!!???
MAY WE ALL TRUE AMERICANS ALWAYS TRULY PRAY SO THAT WE ALL TRUE SOLID AMERICANS REALLY ENABLE ALMIGHY GOD TO EVER BLESS (SAVE) OUR MOST BELOVED TRUE AMERICA!!!
OTHERWISE, ANY OTHER “CRIME” OR “ABORTION” IS AN INNOCENT BY-PRODUCT!!!