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Susan Estrich
10 Feb 2012
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The Wave

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This is what a wave feels like:

One candidate has good crowds; the other has amazing crowds. One candidate has enough supporters to win if the same number of people who voted last time vote this time. But they don't.

The stories start circulating early in the day about polling places running out of ballots, people standing in line, first-time voters filling out the lines.

One campaign sends out the word not to "dance in the end zone." The other tries to bat down the talk of major staff shakeups, premature exits, new people taking over and coffers running on empty.

One campaign puts out the buckets to collect the money as fast as it pours in. The other dials for dollars, hitting up people who have been hit up before to give more, find more, do more.

Waves don't always reach the beach. There was a wave for Gary Hart coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire in 1984 that slowed down in Alabama and ran out of steam by June. There was a wave for John McCain coming out of New Hampshire in 2000 that ran into a wall in South Carolina.

But there is still nothing like riding the wave. Nothing better, nothing worse.

Obama is doing everything right, which is a lot easier to do when you're riding the wave than when you're facing it. He goes from New Hampshire to New Jersey, to Hillary's back yard, signaling his intention to compete and win even in her strongholds on Super Duper Tuesday, then to New York and Boston to fill up the buckets with money, and then to Chicago to rest, which is critical in a grueling business. His people have put out the word to be gracious — no Carter 1980 dancing on the grave, which led to a protracted battle, a bloody convention and a disappointing general election.

For Hillary, it's harder.

Much harder. When a campaign is going well, everything is a sign of it and everyone involved is a genius. When it's going poorly, everything is a sign of weakness and everyone involved is a fool. In Hillary-land, eyes welling up are viewed as bad strategy and disingenuous emotion, and last year's geniuses are this year's fools, bad strategists who missed the wave instead of smart tacticians who played the hand they were dealt. Campaigns that lose have to acknowledge failure and make changes, if only to satisfy the media's demands for affirmation of their judgments.

What should Hillary do? She has two choices: She can try to stop the Obama wave, or she can stand up and fight for what she believes in.

She can wake up and say this isn't about me; the days of inevitability are over; the dynasty has fallen; this is what I believe in; these are my bold ideas for America's future; this is how your life will be better if I am president.

Or she can try to destroy Barack Obama — and destroy herself in the process.

Standing up for what she believes in, fighting for what she cares most about, defining this race in terms of our future and not hers, may or may not be enough to stop the wave that is, right now, the Obama campaign. His numbers are going straight up, and hers are going straight down. There will be many people telling her it isn't fair, that he's gotten less scrutiny than she has, that the media and the pundits and the rest have done her in. It doesn't matter. At this point, one of the reasons Obama is winning is because he represents a different kind of politics. You don't beat the new politics with the old politics.

Part of the change people want is a change in politics. Hillary Clinton can be part of that change, or its first victim. It's up to her.

To find out more about Susan Estrich and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.

COPYRIGHT 2008 CREATORS SYNDICATE INC.


Comments

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In Tuesday evening's New Hampshire primary results, Clinton and her special interest party won tonight over the party of the people.



The people of New Hampshire with record turn out stood in long lines to vote and the exit polls were not wrong and the pollster were not wrong, by all rights, Obama should have won New Hampshire, but the special interest money groups pulled another rabbit out of their hat and gave the victory to Clinton. The earlier results, where paper ballots were being used, the victory went to Obama in a very large margin, where voting machines were used most likely without paper trails, Clinton got the victory. This same scenario happened to Gore and Kerry. The exit polls and pollsters saying one thing and the machines saying another. That is why people cannot trust their government, and until we have voting machines that are fool proof and tamper proof and go back to elections with paper ballots, like in Iowa, we cannot really trust our election results. Iowa pollsters had it right because thier voting system is done with paper ballots and in the light of day! It is not because white America is lying to the pollsters when it comes to an African American candidate.



On the eve of the election, Hillary played her poor me, self-pity act (her so-called authentic moment) and Media complicit in this charade, played this teary-eyed Hillary over and over again to get out the "sympathy vote", which she did, but neglecting the air the piece right afterwards in which she lashes out at Barack Obama . This policy blunder will be huge ammonition for the Republicans if she wins the nomination. They will ask: How can she deal with the critical issues facing us today This "teary-eyed" piece will be aired over and over again in campaign commercials; citing her as to weak and to unstable to lead the country. ? A big mistake for her!



Change is hard, but Senator Obama will continue on with his message of hope and change. The special interst groups do not want to give up their power and they will do everything they can to keep power in their hands and out of the people's hands. Deciding who to back, be it Republican or Democrat as long as they serve their ends. Eventually the people will win and we will keep on fighting.



President Clinton, a man supposedly of honor, distorted and took out of context words Senator Obama's spoke at the 2004 Democratic Convention about his stance on the Iraq war. Do we really want people like that in the White House who will lie and distort for their own selfish gains? Or do we want a man of goodwill and integrity in the White House a man more concerned about you than himself. It is no easy to task for a man to risk his life for you because he answers the call to make America better and to take it to a higher ground.

When President Clinton achieved his Presidency, he took a lot of Democrats down. They had record loss in both the Senate and the Congress and the tone of Washington, D.C, was divisive and nasty, and a Hillary Presidency will do the same and we will have lost our moment to come together as one.



Much is at stake, we are at a crossroads. Change is hard because the media is in their pockets; the voting machines cannot be trusted. We can only HOPE! God bless this country!
Comment: #1
Posted by: bacaangel
Wed Jan 9, 2008 5:58 AM
Sen. OBAMA was ahead by 12 points to Clinton the day before the NH primary. Those polling results were holding on the day of the primary. The polls were right in ever other case for both the Republicans and Democrats but completely and miserably wrong on the match-up between Obama and Clinton. The IOWA poll was right on the money but in New Hampshire something very, very different happened that only INVOLVED TWO of the CANDIDATES.

Someone has suggested that NH voters lied about who they were really going to vote for. I hope AP, CNN, ZOGBY will poll NH voters to find out if their poll response matched up with their actual voting behavior. I think this type of poll would lay to rest the rumblings that there is something suspect about the NH results. I would much rather it be that the NH voters said one thing and di something else than to think that the Clinton did something underhanded and illegal to create the totally unexpected NH OBAMA -CLINTON result.
Comment: #2
Posted by: Debbie
Wed Jan 9, 2008 12:25 PM
I had a visceral reaction to Hillary's tearing up and I have been an Obama supporter since the draftobama.org days. I am a woman and a baby boomer - I saw her tear up and thought, "Aww - that's real. She's tired. After all she's done and how hard she works, no one appreciates what she does. You've been going and going and worked hard and spent all your time in the shadow of a man and now this upstart is going to crush your dreams." I would well up too.
SO the women of New Hamshire felt her pain and 10% more than planned to went out and voted.
She can't use it again. And in this YouTube age, you can't get away with being disingenuine. Just wait - she is transparent as she can be and Obama will remain strong.
Work for him, call for him, keep saying his name if that's all you can do. We are the wave but it doesn't keep rolling without us.
Comment: #3
Posted by: Susan Sheridan
Fri Jan 11, 2008 11:05 AM
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