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Senator Meek?

If you'd told me a year ago that Democrats would find themselves within striking distance of picking up a Senate seat in Florida, running an African-American congressman no one outside his district had ever heard of, I'd probably have asked you what you were smoking.

But that was before Florida's still-popular Republican governor effectively got booted out of his own party in a conservative takeover that could end with Republicans grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory.

My conservative friends have spent much of the past year dumping on poor Gov. Charlie Crist, the once-unbeatable future senator, and heaping praise and attention on his fiery conservative opponent, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio. Rubio has been the darling of conservative chatterers and tea party activists everywhere, amassing a commanding lead over the more moderately conservative Crist.

Thursday's decision by the governor to ditch the party label and run as an independent is probably his only shot of making it to the general election and, ultimately, to the Senate. But it is hardly a sure thing. With only 22 percent of its electorate not registered as either Democrat or Republican, and with Democrats substantially outnumbering Republicans, Crist's move makes Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek's job a whole lot easier than Rubio's.

It takes 33 percent of the electorate — plus one vote — to win a three-way election. Meek needs the Democratic base. That's all he needs. In what should be a Republican-leaning year, he doesn't need a single Republican or independent vote. That's a much easier task for a Democrat this year than winning 50 percent plus one.

As for Rubio, he has to walk a pretty tricky line. There just aren't enough tea partiers in the state for him to win from the hard right.

If he sticks with the fiery rhetoric that gave him the lead in the Republican primary, he risks pushing everyone to the left of him into Crist's column. If he tones it down, he loses his base and his credibility.

Watching Rubio wiggle around on the immigration issue is a case in point. Arizona's passage of its controversial (and almost certainly unconstitutional) state law making it a crime to be an illegal immigrant and authorizing police to detain individuals for that reason alone (even if they have committed no other crime) is splitting the Republican Party pretty much in half.

Popular former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has come out and criticized the law, which tells you something about how at least one smart politician from that state sees it. As for Rubio, he's dancing right now — not exactly saying he's for it, not exactly saying he's against it and, most strikingly for a guy who claims to be against big government, calling on the federal government to do more.

His statement this week reads like classic waffle politics: "States certainly have the right to enact policies to protect their citizens, but Arizona's policy shows the difficulty and limitations of states trying to act piecemeal to solve what is a serious federal problem. From what I have read in news reports, I do have concerns about this legislation."

So much for federalism. Your only source is news reports? How about reading the law itself? Are you for it or against it? Do you think it's constitutional or not? Rubio's most ardent supporters have opinions on those issues. Many of the swing voters who decide elections also have opinions, and they aren't necessarily the same ones. Giving people three candidates to choose from means they don't have to compromise. Rubio's path to Washington got a lot more complicated this week, and Meek's got a lot more straightforward.

As for Crist, he's taking his best shot. If ever there were a year to belong to no party, this might be it.

To find out more about Susan Estrich and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.

Comments

3 Comments | Post Comment

I live in Florida. Ever since Crist ran for Attorney General of Florida I had him pegged. He's neither a Democrat nor a Republican; he's a Cristican, all for Charlie!
The liberals will soon convince Charlie that if he caucauses with them they will stop their support of Meek, who is a meek candidate. Once again the far left liberals (new socialists) will win, just when we conservatives thought we could help return the country to its Constitutional reality.
Just in case Susan didn't know - Charlie Crist is a self centered unprincipled flip flopper.

Comment: #1
Posted by: Early
Fri Apr 30, 2010 6:21 AM

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Ms. Estrich,
Who is to say that Crist will make a significant impact as an independent in this election? As a person who is watching from afar, it does not seem likely that a man who blew a 30 point lead has a shot remote chance. I am sure his former Republican support is now unavailable, so he needs to pull most if not all the independents and a good portion of democrats to win. Will democrats cross the line and vote in enough numbers for an independent candidate who used to be with the party they consider to be the enemy? I think their party loyalty runs a little deeper than their affinity for Governor Crist. Let us remember the democratic party is one of the most bigoted and dysfunctional collection of half wits ever organized within the United States. I agree with you that Meek probably has benefited from Crist's actions, but given that Florida has traditionally goes Republican, only time will tell for him. Meek is going to have to make a persuasive case to the voters that he is the right person for the job. As for Marco Rubio, does he have more or less of a chance now that it is a three way race? Probably less of a chance, but considering he was 30 points down not to long ago, I would say he is still in it. Rubio has proved to be a very formidable candidate thus far and probably has a chance to win intelligent open minded voters. As for him not reading the Arizona law that was recently past, why should he? He lives in Florida and he is running for a US Senate seat. Perhaps, if he was running for a state office in Arizona he should be familiar with Arizona law. But, he is not. So please explain to me why he should be reading up on what the legislature of Arizona is doing? Once again Ms. Estrich you failed to make a persuasive case.

Comment: #2
Posted by: Frankie Barbella
Fri Apr 30, 2010 7:21 AM

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Dear Susan,

I would not bet on Meeks getting elected. The people in Florida may be largely Democratic, but, there is a large segment of this that is also Jewish who have turned against the Messiah and his party as they see their Medicare benefits being reduced and long waiting lines to see a doctor. One has to enter this into the equation. How will Meeks distance himself from the Obamacare that is largely unpopular with the voters and yet tell the people all the good things he will bring back to Florida for them? Double edged sword for Mr. Meeks

As for the law recently passed by the voters of Arizona and signed into law - the count to date is Arizona 3 and the Federal Government 0 in court cases. Seems that the Arizona lawyers read and understand the Federal Laws on the subject and mirror them in their laws which leads to it being absolutely correct and definitely in line with all written laws on the subject. If the Supreme Court has to kick one out then they have to kick both out. I doubt the Democratic Congress would appreciate getting more egg on their face before the 2010 November elections. \

You may push for Mr. Meeks to get elected all you want as it is still a free country, but, in my humble opinion I think the people of Florida will not give him the needed support with Obamacare hanging over his head. The Democrats have lost the Independent people like myself who do not like things pushed down our throats. We are intelligent enough to understand the bills when we are allowed to read them and the resultant taxes coming forth by ever bigger government which does not produce GDP - only taxes.

Comment: #3
Posted by: Gene44
Sun May 2, 2010 7:38 AM

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