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Presidential Polls Don't Truly Speak to Race or Gender Issues

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When a new poll comes out, those of us in the media, especially on television, get excited and giddy over what the numbers may mean to the overall electorate.

As any good pollster will tell you, polls offer a snapshot into the minds of the voters on a given day. Of course, that view could change the next day for a multitude of reasons.

My BlackBerry and Treo were buzzing Thursday over the release of polling data showing that America is ready to elect a black president by overwhelming numbers. And those polled say we're readier to do so than we are to elect a woman.

According to a CNN/Essence Magazine/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Thursday, 76 percent of those polled say America is ready for a black president. Sixty-three percent say we're ready for a female president.

Feminist Gloria Steinem must be screaming, "See, I told you so!" But there are some other realities that we must confront before we accept the notion that gender is a greater barrier than race.

First, white men are 43 for 43 when it comes to the presidency. That's one heckuva ratio, and regardless of the excitement generated by Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, if either gets the Democratic nomination, there is no way of guaranteeing that record won't continue to be perfect in a fall campaign against Sen. John McCain.

Second, no white women or African-Americans ever have been this close. (I say white women because when we speak of women, African-American women normally are not included; they typically are placed in the racial category.) In fact, only Elizabeth Dole on the GOP side has done anything of substance in a presidential nomination battle. Rep. Shirley Chisholm, an African-American, ran in 1972, and former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, also African-American, was in the race briefly in 2004. (Rep. Geraldine Ferraro didn't run for president. She was selected as a vice presidential nominee.)

For African-American men, the Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr. ran in 1984 and 1988, and prior to Obama, no African-American did better than Jackson did.
Former Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder was briefly in the race in 1992, and the Rev. Al Sharpton ran in 2004. But neither did anything to truly impact the race.

So, does this mean that although Obama is an African-American man, he must have a leg up against Clinton, a white woman?

I just don't accept that conclusion. Why? Just look at the real-time data of how the nation has elected white women and African-Americans to high office.

Since Reconstruction, there only have been three black U.S. senators: Edward Brooke of Massachusetts and Braun and Obama, both of Illinois. Excluding Braun, there have been 34 female U.S. senators.

Since Reconstruction, only two African-Americans have been elected governor in America: Wilder of Virginia and Deval Patrick in Massachusetts. There have been 27 women elected governor since Reconstruction.

As they say, the proof is in the pudding, and it's clear that if there is a greater barrier to office, it has been race, not gender.

This is not to engage in a contest of who has had the greater pain. But it's using real data for us to have a substantive discussion about what is at play here.

The polling data should be seen for what it is: Americans are growing more comfortable with the notion of African-Americans and white women being in positions to go places where others previously have failed to go. When it comes to breaking barriers, it takes someone to walk across the hot coals in order to fulfill destiny.

All the women and minorities before them have paved the way for Clinton and Obama to be where they are. This race offers a blueprint for those in the future to seek higher office because they will be able to study what they did — well and badly — and create their own game plans.

So, we know it's guaranteed that the Democrats will achieve history with their selection of Obama or Clinton. We'll just have to see whether America's changing opinions on race and gender for the presidency will be reflected at the ballot box Nov. 4.

Roland S. Martin is an award-winning CNN contributor and the author of "Listening to the Spirit Within: 50 Perspectives on Faith." Please visit his Web site at www.RolandSMartin.com. To find out more about Roland S. Martin and read his past columns, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.

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Originally Published on Friday April 04, 2008


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