Race to First Shakes Up Campaign

DES MOINES — The political primary calendar for 2008 is beginning to resemble a game of bumper cars more than an orderly way of selecting the next Democratic and Republican nominees.

Near panic was set off Wednesday, when some people got the incorrect notion that New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner was going to announce a new date for his state's primary Thursday and force Iowa to hold its caucuses in December. Gardner made no such announcement, and, in fact, reliable sources have assured me he will not set a date until this fall or later.

South Carolina Republicans will move their primary to Jan. 19 and officials visited New Hampshire Thursday as a courtesy and to show they have no intention of crossing swords with the all-powerful Gardner. The Jan. 19 date for South Carolina would mean that under New Hampshire law, Gardner will have to hold his primary on Jan. 12 or earlier.

If Gardner stuck to the New Hampshire tradition of always holding the primary on a Tuesday, that would mean he would hold his primary on Jan. 8 or earlier. Which would mean that by state law, Iowa would have to hold its caucuses on Dec. 31, 2007, or earlier. But I am reliably informed this is not going to happen.

One solution: Gardner could hold the New Hampshire primary on a day other than a Tuesday, giving Iowa the breathing room it needs to hold its primary in early January.

Confused? You should be. Just about everybody else is.

The problem is not just the very complicated skein of state laws and party rules. The problem is pride.

Each state is fighting for what it sees as its proper status, as well as national attention and, to a lesser extent, the millions of dollars spent by the candidates and the media in the early contests.

Iowa wishes to protect its First Caucus in the Nation status.

New Hampshire wishes to protect its First Primary in the Nation status (which is complicated by the fact that it will allow no other contest — primary or caucus — to go before it other than Iowa.

It allows Iowa to do this through tradition, but that door is now closed and New Hampshire says no other state can apply.)

South Carolina, whose Republicans have a long tradition of early primaries (but whose Democrats do not), wishes to preserve its First Primary in the South status.

Florida, a mega-state by virtue of its population, does not want to hold its primary on Feb. 5 with two other mega-states, New York and California, because, well, it doesn't want to, that's why. Florida may hold the First Mega-State Primary in the Nation on Jan. 29.

But Florida and South Carolina both happen to be in the South, which is why South Carolina had to move up to protect its First in the South status.

One problem: The Democratic Party says it will not allow Florida to move up because this would violate the party rules. So Florida Democrats could lose delegates to the convention, or the candidates who compete in the “illegal” primary could be punished.

Except once the Democratic convention convenes, it could reverse any punishments and almost certainly would do so out of a sense of party unity. Or the Florida party could hold just a “beauty contest” on Jan. 29 without selecting delegates in a way to get around party rules.

And then there is Nevada. For the first time, the Democratic Party said it would allow Nevada to hold caucuses after Iowa and before New Hampshire. Party operatives assumed Bill Gardner would allow this because Nevada is a caucus and not a primary and New Hampshire could still have the First Primary in the Nation status.

But as The Politico revealed on Jan. 25 of this year, Gardner will not allow Nevada to go before New Hampshire no matter whether Nevada conducts a primary, a caucus or a ring toss.

Still confused? Nobody blames you.

To find out more about Roger Simon, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.

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