Opinion> Roger Simon> New Hampshire S Turn As Leader May Be Up

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New Hampshire's Turn as Leader May Be Up

At this point, the presidential nominating calendar for 2008 is more easily deplored than described.

Somebody is going to go first. We know that.

Maybe it will be New Hampshire. Or maybe not.

Maybe New Hampshire will go in December. Or maybe not.

After that, it gets kind of confusing.

I went to the Christian Science Monitor breakfast Wednesday to hear Carl Levin speak.

Levin is the senior Democratic senator from Michigan, the chairman of the Armed Services Committee, and an expert on both foreign and domestic affairs.

He talked very knowledgeably for more than half an hour about Iraq, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, missile defense deployment in Europe, CAFE standards (which, interestingly enough, have nothing to do with cafes), and the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

I didn't pay any attention.

OK, I paid a little attention. I took notes (just in case any of it is on the final), but I had come for something far more important than things like war, peace and the environment.

I had come to hear Levin say bad things about New Hampshire.

Levin hates New Hampshire. Not the people or the foliage, just the fact that New Hampshire holds the first primary in the nation. (Levin also hates Iowa because it holds the first caucus in the nation, but he hates New Hampshire more.)

Levin has argued for years that New Hampshire is a small state that is not representative of the nation and it would make more sense for some other state — Michigan, for instance — to begin the nominating process.

By general agreement, the other 48 states allow New Hampshire and Iowa to go first because when those two states feel threatened, they go absolutely ballistic and vow to halt syrup and ethanol production, and possibly form their own nation.

Like many political reporters, I like both states very much, know people there whom I consider not just sources but friends and would continue going there no matter when they held their contests.

But both states have a huge emotional investment in their status and, in some ways, feel defined by it.

Both states also have laws demanding that they go first.

Carl Levin doesn't care. He and Debbie Dingell, a member of the Democratic National Committee from Michigan, wrote a scathing letter to Democratic Chairman Howard Dean last month complaining about the "stranglehold" that New Hampshire has on the nominating process and "the gun that New Hampshire holds to candidates' heads."

They also complained that Dean was standing by "silently" while New Hampshire rode roughshod over everybody and demanded that Dean "urge candidates to stop campaigning in New Hampshire."

(A spokesman for Dean told me he would answer the letter next month.)

On Wednesday, at the breakfast, Levin threatened to move Michigan's contest to the same day as New Hampshire's in an attempt to blow up a process he called "cockamamie."

"No state should have that dominant a role," Levin said.

The problem with trying to hold a contest on the same day as New Hampshire, however, is that New Hampshire keeps its date a secret until the last minute.

Bill Gardner, the New Hampshire secretary of state, just waits until the other states announce their dates — laws and practical concerns force most states to announce their dates months in advance — and then he picks a date that is at least seven days before everybody else (except Iowa, which Gardner allows to go first for historic reasons).

Pretty nifty, right?

Well, maybe not.

If Levin can get Michigan Democrats to go early enough in January to force New Hampshire into December, he may get exactly what he wants: the destruction of New Hampshire's favored status in the future.

"If New Hampshire goes in December, Gardner can kiss first-in-the-nation status goodbye in 2012," a senior Democrat, who actually likes New Hampshire, told me. "This whole controversy is horrible for democracy."

Levin, on the other hand, thinks it is all very good for democracy.

"New Hampshire has a hammerlock, folks," he said. "How do we end it?"

He may have found a way.

To find out more about Roger Simon, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.