Laugh at Palin at Your Own Risk

I hate to say I told you so. No, that's a lie. I love to say I told you so. I just don't get to do it very often.

But 50 weeks ago, I wrote a column that was widely reviled. It was attacked both on blogs and in the mainstream media. People demanded that I produce both a birth certificate and proof of sanity.

And all because I wrote in June 2010 a column that began: "Sarah Palin can be the Republican nominee in 2012. I am not saying she will be, but she can be. Those who underestimate her do so at their own risk."

I advised her to do seven things: Dump Alaska, surround yourself with people smarter than you are, pick a handful of issues and stick to them, study up, don't believe you can't do it, don't go changing, and don't worry about failure.

Today, I am not saying that she is following this advice, or that she even knows it exists.

But her recent decision to begin a multi-state bus trip was treated as explosive by the media.

On Sunday, I checked Google News. The No. 1 story was: "Sarah Palin causes stir at Rolling Thunder."

The No. 2 story was: "In Joplin, Obama offers healing words to residents."

I am making no judgment as to which story was really more important. But 50 weeks ago, that ranking would have been considered laughable.

And some are still laughing.

On NBC's "Meet the Press With David Gregory" on Sunday, New York Times columnist David Brooks dismissed Palin by saying that "running for president is not 'American Idol.' And I think people may agree with her, they may like her, but that doesn't mean they're going to vote for her."

Brooks may be right. People might decide to vote for a candidate they don't agree with and don't like. It doesn't happen very often, but I suppose it could happen this time.

After all, Mitt Romney is running this time.

In The Washington Post Monday, a front-page story referred to Romney as "widely regarded as the front-runner for the nomination," and that is absolutely true. Because it is the media that are doing the "widely regarding."

The polls are not. The most recent poll, concluded on May 26 and conducted by CNN, shows Rudy Giuliani as the Republican front-runner by one point over Romney and three points over Palin.

The Gallup poll, which concluded on May 24, does show Romney in the lead by two points over Palin, but that poll didn't include Giuliani.

One reason Romney is widely considered the front-runner, however, is money, which hugely impresses the media, even though the historical record shows that the candidate who raises the most money before the primaries begin does not always win the nomination.

Romney recently raised $10 million in one day, but $10 million is also what he blew on a one-day event — the Ames, Iowa, straw poll of 2007. He won the straw poll, but he lost the state, rendering that expense a waste. The real trick is to both raise money and spend it wisely.

But back to who's on first. Let's look at it another way. Let's not depend on horserace polls, but look at how the voters view the candidates on both a personal and issue-oriented level.

Another Gallup poll, released May 26, concludes: "Romney in general has high favorable ratings and low unfavorable ratings, but he does not generate the same type of intense feelings as do other candidates.

"Palin, on the other hand, has a more segmented appeal ... she now fares best among Republicans who say social and moral issues are their top concern, and essentially ties for first among those who favor business and the economy and national security/foreign policy. Palin, however, lags among the largest group of Republicans — those most focused on government spending and power."

I realize this sounds like typical poll-speak: On the one hand, but on the other hand, but on the third hand ...

So let's look at the only person at this point sure to be on a national ticket: Barack Obama.

Of four national polls completed in May showing a head-to-head race of Obama vs. Romney, Obama wins by a low of six percentage points and a high of 13.

Of four national polls completed in May showing a head-to-head race of Obama vs. Palin, Obama wins by a low of 17 percentage points and a high of 21.

If you are a Republican, you could look at that and say Romney has less ground to make up in order to beat Obama. Or you could look at that and say, heck, if we're going to lose anyway, we might as well nominate a candidate we really are passionate about, and not a candidate assembled by kit.

But who are Republicans really passionate about?

Gallup has a poll for that, too. It is called the Positive Intensity Score, and the winner is not Romney at 14 and not Palin at 16, but former pizza-king Herman Cain at 27. The bad news for Cain, however, is that hardly anybody knows who he is.

Gallup's conclusion: "There is thus no potential candidate who at this point combines a high name ID with strongly positive reactions among Republicans."

So according to the polls, the trick for Palin, who leads all potential Republican candidates with a name recognition of 96 percent (Newt Gingrich is second at 84 and Romney is third at 83), is to build positive reaction among Republicans, especially those most focused on government spending and power.

Would that really be so difficult?

As some visionary once wrote: Sarah Palin can be the Republican nominee in 2012. I am not saying she will be, but she can be. Those who underestimate her do so at their own risk.

To find out more about Roger Simon, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate webpage at www.creators.com.

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