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Hello, Goodbye

NASHUA, N.H. — So it has come to this: Seven days since it began, it is essentially over.

Just a week since the Iowa caucuses, the first contest of a long primary season, it is widely assumed that Mitt Romney will be the nominee of the Republican Party.

Forget about delegates. Iowa, which Romney won by eight votes, gave him no delegates. It was a pure beauty contest.

But the real beauty of his win was this: Romney, who spent the least time in Iowa, beat Rick Santorum, who spent the most time in Iowa.

That is not supposed to happen in a "retail" politics state. Did Romney have TV ads? Sure. Do TV ads win caucuses? No.

Romney, the guy we are told that 75 percent of the Republican Party hates, is prohibitively ahead in South Carolina and Florida, the next two contests.

But he may not get more than 50 percent in these contests, the talking heads say.

So what? Right now it's a seven-person field. It's not only really difficult to get more than 50 percent in a seven-person field, it is also not necessary.

Two guys are out camping, when they hear a bear clawing into their tent.

The first guy jumps up and starts pulling his shoes on.

"Don't be an idiot," the second guy says. "You can't out run a bear!"

"I don't have to outrun the bear," the first guy says. "I just have to outrun you."

Mitt Romney doesn't have to outrun the bear. He doesn't have to be a perfect candidate. He doesn't have to be the reincarnation of Ronald Reagan. All he has to do is outrun Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and Buddy Roemer. (I'll get to that last guy in a minute.)

I'll boil it down for you: Winning a nomination is about winning.

Rudy Giuliani never got that. He thought he could lose his way to the nomination. In 2008, he thought he could lose Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and then waltz into Florida where his natural charm and heroic stature would carry him to victory.

Instead, he came in a distant third in Florida and withdrew from the race. But he did leave something behind: a $3.6 million debt.

So forget the mug's game of adding up all those votes that are split among the losing candidates. The guy who counts is the guy who wins.

Could the polls be wrong? Sure. None of them, to the best of my knowledge, got Iowa right.

But at a dinner of national reporters gathered around a table in an expense-account restaurant in downtown Manchester a few days ago, the talk was not about who might upset Romney in New Hampshire, who might beat him in South Carolina or who might edge him in Florida.

The talk was about who Romney might select as his running mate.

(When my guess of Rick Perry was met with universal derision — a broccoli spear might actually have been thrown at my head — I quickly switched to David Petraeus, which, though an unlikely choice, did make people put down their vegetables.)

And you know what Romney's opponents are really, really holding out their hopes for? A speech at the Republican National Convention in Tampa. And we're not even talking primetime. Some would be delighted with 2 in the afternoon.

There is much media attention being paid to Romney's weaknesses: his true record of job creation or job destruction at Bain Capital and his statement Monday about bad health care providers when he said, "I like being able to fire people who provide services to me."

His opponents have pounced like pumas. "Gov. Romney enjoys firing people; I enjoy creating jobs," said Jon Huntsman.

Buddy Roemer, who has appeared from nowhere, is now beating Rick Perry by 2 percentage points in one poll here. Roemer, a former governor of Louisiana, who left office 20 years ago, announced for the Republican nomination last July and appears to have been campaigning in some alternate universe ever since.

The press has been left to pick over the bones. Who will come in fourth here? Fifth? And how many tickets are there out of New Hampshire, anyway? (Answer: One.)

Romney is playing it cool. He is not predicting a large victory. "I am hoping for a margin larger than Iowa," he says. "I don't think I could take another night like that."

It looks like he won't have to. Ron Paul, who some assume will stay in the race no matter what, tells reporters that he will make a big play for Florida — which he estimates can cost from $10 million to $20 million — only if he can raise the money. "We shouldn't act like government and spend money we don't have," he says.

We in the media poke among the table scraps: Herman Cain announces he will make an "unconventional endorsement" on Jan. 19, two days before the South Carolina primary. "Underscore the word 'unconventional,'" Cain says to near-universal yawns.

Four-time Tesoro Iron Dog champion Todd Palin, who is married to a former governor of Alaska, endorses known outdoorsman Newt Gingrich, who never saw a snowmobile he didn't want to take a nap on.

Will Romney really have it this easy? Will he coast instead of claw his way to the nomination? History says no, but it feels like yes.

Hello, you other candidates. Now say goodbye.

To find out more about Roger Simon, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate webpage at www.creators.com.