PHILADELPHIA — No state began with more promise than did the commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Here was the new nation's first capital city. And what leaders! William Penn — whose Quaker values imparted charity, tolerance and acceptance of religious minorities — then the wise and brilliant Benjamin Franklin, the quintessential Founding Father.

Sadly, since those early salad days, Pennsylvania has produced just one U.S. president, the disastrous one-term Democrat James Buchanan, whose weak indecisiveness plunged the nation into its bloodiest and most tragic era, the Civil War. But please note that the man had a truly impressive resume — Buchanan had served with some distinction in Washington, D.C., in the House, later as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, and then as secretary of state and ambassador to Great Britain, and had three times turned down a nomination to the Supreme Court. With that experience, one might have concluded Buchanan would have been ready on day one!

In 1900, Pennsylvania was still the United States' second largest state. As recently as 1960, when John Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon, Pennsylvania, which JFK carried, had the same number of electoral votes — 32 — as did California, which Nixon won. This November, the winner of the Golden State will get 55 electoral votes, while carrying the Quaker state will mean just 21 electoral votes.

During the George W. Bush presidency, Pennsylvania has lost 207,400 manufacturing jobs. The state is now the nation's third oldest (only Florida and West Virginia have a higher percentage of elderly), 43rd in percentage of population under the age of 18 and 46th in growth (Pennsylvania is projected to lose another congressional seat in the 2010 census.)

To put it bluntly, Change has not been that good to Pennsylvania. While the American tradition has been to welcome Change as essentially just another name for improvement, Keystone state citizens have grown understandably wary of Change.

While historians can debate whether the incumbent Republican chief executive is as bad as Buchanan, and while better than four out of five Americans believe their country is "seriously off in the wrong track," Pennsylvanians appear reluctant to embrace Big Change.

You almost got the feeling, in the candidates' debate here Wednesday night, from the somber, almost sullen facial expression of Democratic front-runner, Barack Obama, that he knew the skepticism and doubt toward Change among the electorate.

It had been easily Obama's worst week of the campaign.

He had been playing defense — badly — never fully apologizing for nor adequately explaining his thesis, offered at a private San Francisco fund-raiser, as to why economically stressed blue-collar Pennsylvania voters turned to their religion, their hunting and their fear of the unknown. From personal experience, I can testify that I have never been more fervent in devotion to my own religious faith than when I was away from all family, friends and the familiar as a lowly enlisted man in the Marine Corps.

What was missing from Candidate Obama was the message of Hope, which had carried him to the fore. Gone, too, was his wonderful smile. Americans love smiles on their public favorites. Think of Ike and JFK and FDR, and you see their smiles, warm and confident. Imagine Tiger Woods without his smile. You can't. Obama's winning smile was apparently a casualty of a week of punches.

Up to now, one of the strongest cases for the Obama candidacy has been the Obama campaign, which has been exceptionally well-managed and efficient, as well as refreshingly welcoming and inclusive. But every campaign is inevitably and ultimately the mirror reflection of the candidate in whose name that campaign is run. It has not been the high-tech wizardry that has made the Illinois Democrat's campaign so special, it has been his message of hope, change and inspiration of bringing people together in the common interest.

Pennsylvania is not easy for Barack Obama. But how he responds will tell us volumes about the kind of presidential nominee and, more importantly, the kind of president he would be.

To find out more about Mark Shields and read his past columns, visit the Creators Syndicate web page at www.creators.com.

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COPYRIGHT 2008 MARK SHIELDS