If it was my responsibility to organize a national Republican campaign (admittedly, a highly unlikely possibility) and could make only two phone-calls for advice, one of those calls, I can be sure, would be to former six-term GOP congressman from Virginia, Tom Davis.
Davis who voluntarily left his suburban Virginia district in 2006 was the respected chairman of the House Republican campaign committee, four years earlier, when for the first time in 68 years (since FDR's first term), the party controlling both the US House and the White House successfully increased its House majority in the President's first mid-term election. So, I decided to seek in the closing days of President Barack Obama's first mid-term election Tom Davis's distilled wisdom on campaign 2010 and its consequences.
What about the universally-expected GOP victories? According to Davis: "This race has not been about the Republicans; it has been about the Democrats. The 2010 election is not an affirmative endorsement of my Party. We are simply an instrument for voters to use as a protest"
He reminded me of the similarities between 2010 and the year he was elected to Congress, 1994 the first mid-term election of the last Democratic President, Bill Clinton: "That year, voters elected me—-and the first Republican House in 40 years-to protect them from Bill Clinton. Two years later, voters re-elected Bill Clinton to protect them from me and the House Republican majority."
Divided government-with one party controlling the White house and the other controlling at least the House or the Senate-has been lately the rule rather than the exception. "For 38 of the past 60 years, voters have given uns divided government.," notes Davis." This election has been about putting a check on the Obama administration and the Democrats in Congress."
He has not been surprised at the " revolt against the nation's political establisment of both parties" citing the upset primary victories of GOP insurgents against the Party-backed US Senate candidates in Kentucky, Colorado, Alaska, Utah, and Delaware.
Davis thinks it only logical after the failed political record of the last decade beginning with "9/11,followed by two failed wars, a national economic meltdown, and a dysfunctional political system."
So what lies ahead? Tom Davis sees " gridlock on steroids....I believe it's going to get more polarized before it gets better." One reason for the increased polarization, according to Davis, is that the two parties are now defined and divided more "along cultural and values lines. It is much harder to compromise on differences in values than on economic differences."
Much will depend on the reaction of President Obama to the newly-embodened Republican opposition. "Which course do you think is more liely ?" asks Davis. "Will the President be bold and seek to set the Republicans as obstructionists or will he emerge as a "moderate to win back the middle?" But Republicans, according to this former Party leader, are " not in any mood to compromise"-especially after they have seen what happened (in party primary defeats) to their colleagues who did so and were branded collaborators.Tom Davis thinks that the President conclude that he has "to demonize the Republican Congress."
Still he holds out hope: "Divided government can be a good thing when leaders can step forward and step out of their (partisan) boxes in order to get things done." Davis was in office when Democratic President Bill Clinton and a Republican House passed welfare reform and managed to achieve the first balanced federal budgets in the last forty years.
But Tom Davis believes that what lies ahead immediately is "going to be a nasty period."I have learned from first-hand experience,don't bet against the political insights of Tom davis,an authentic Republican wiseman.
To find out more about Mark Shields and read his past columns, visit the Creators Syndicate web page at www.creators.com.
DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS.COM
COPYRIGHT 2010 MARK SHIELDS

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4 Comments | Post Comment
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I don't think we've had government by one party since Obama was elected. The "blue-dog" Democrats have behaved like Republicans.
Comment: #1
Posted by:
Fri Oct 29, 2010 4:33 AM
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Re: Anne W.
Dems and reps haven't overspent enough, huh? Neither have they overstretched the constitutional limits allowed government. Just how big should the deficit be before we rein it in?
You won't like Tuesday's outcome, but you caused it. You are the type of government dependant so many people will be voting against in a few days.
Most republicans have behaved like democrats for the past 8 years. If you don't like my condescending tone stop being dependant on the cash of strangers.
Money does not grow on government trees. Rather the vines are clogged with freeloaders who complain more than they accomplish. You may want to be led by a government leash, but plenty of good people are opposed to being lapdogs. Blue-dogs, indeed.
Comment: #2
Posted by: Tom
Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:04 PM
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This is an open letter to Mark Shields. Mr. Shields. You said on the News Hour that the election was a repudiation of the Presidents policies because they did not like them. I strongly disagree and I disagree for good reason and many of them.
My overarching rationale is simply that the policies were generally fine and even good, it was that two things happened. Number One and the largest problem, he failed to explain them properly or well or even often enough to the American people so that he could turn around the demonizing of them. 2. That in doing so, he left many, many Democrats who took the hard choices and voted for them and Nancy Pelosi out to dry.
For example: It is obvious that the meat and substance of Healthcare reform was good for America. If one asks about the dominant parts of the bill, no one wants to repeal any of those parts. But if one generalizes and just demonizes the bill, it scares seniors and others. What was at fault? Communication. Mr. Obama did not launch a sustained communication of the good things the bill does. It should have been on all the airwaves, what good this bill does.
Then there is the Stimulus Bill. Every single Republican demonized the stimulus, as if it did nothing. Even taxed the American people just when they don't need it. There was 300 Billion Dollars of tax cuts for the middle class in that bill of 700 Billion. Almost half. It is almost ridiculous to assume that if you ask any Republican if they thought tax cuts were a bad idea, that they all would say it was a good idea. But do any Americans even know they got a tax cut? NO!!! When Bush gave a tax cut, each American got a check. They could see it. When Obama did it, it was just there in their yearly or monthly payment. No one knew. The Republicans made it look like it was one big expenditure, when half of it was a tax cut. What is the problem? Policy, you say, Mr. Shields. I do not agree. It was the Communication. It was letting the Republicans demonize the bill and doing nothing about it. He should have sent a check to every American so Democrats could run on the Stimulus instead of getting screwed by it.
Finally, we have TARP. The Bank Bailouts. Everyone understands the problem there. Most people know it was Wall Street and the Banks and AIG. Most people feel we had to do it or the entire worlds economy would fail. Once again, it was Communication. The taxpayer has gotten almost all of their money back and it is even thought about that the taxpayer could even make a nice profit from it when all is said and done. General Motors was saved and it about to do a Public Offering and the major banks have paid it all back with interest. But Mr. Obama said nothing. He let the Republicans demonize him and it and even Bush. Even more egregious, he let the congressman who took those hard votes out to dry and I will bet every one of them hate it. Of course, the fact that they did nothing to shed light on all the things I mentioned doesn't help either.
Finally, that brings me to the Tea Party. The Tea Party movement was borne out of total ignorance and frustration. More ignorance than anything, though. Rand Paul, from the Progressive state of Kentucky wants to repeal all the laws he can find. Social Security, the Civil Rights Act, Medicare, anything he can find. Others have similar bizarre viewpoints. The Tea Party candidates would have you believe we could have just sat there and let our country burn to the ground during the bailouts and everything would have worked itself out, when if it had burned to the ground, everyone would have expected the government to do something, just like they did with Katrina and with the Oil Spill and now with high unemployment. They cheer and rail that there is too much government and when their mouths move they want the government to create new jobs that the banks and the financial crisis took away from them. The stupidity is astounding and awe inspiring. ODonnell not knowing the Separation of Church and State. Buck thinking being Gay was a choice, Angle wanting to get rid of the Education Department. The list goes on and on as does the stupidity. The Rich in this country must love it. "Keep 'em stupid!"
The Tea Party is a joke, or a bad one. Like McCarthyism. It is a movement built on a ridiculous premise and stupidity and it is fed by people who are clueless and are just asking to be perennial beggars and poverty stricken victims. It is always someone else fault, they say and believe. Not their own. Now that they have some power, it was be terrible if they could reap what they sow.
All in all, Mr. Shields. It was Mr. Obama's inability to communicate that was the problem. He had to sell, like Clinton did or Reagan did. They all knew it and no one did a thing about it. BUT------ For you to say it was a policy problem and that the American people repudiated the policies. If anybody with a brain, (A large caveat, I must admit, after seeing the Tea Partiers) was in a room and was presented with the main 3 policies that I covered and that everyone ran on, they would think they were all good for the country. Yet, no one was presented with them. No one did it. Not the President or the Democrats that ran. No one. And therein lies the big elephant in the room.
One last point. Unbridled money spent on the campaigns. The Filibuster and the lies. Those three items are going to haunt this country for a long time. The Supreme Court f-cked up. They even wrote that disclosure would solve the problem and may have, if they had any clue as to the political process, which they didn't since they have been so walled off, they did not understand that there would be no disclosure and there is likely not to be. Karl Rove usurped the RNC during this entire election cycle along with foreign money and other corporate and union money.
The filibuster means, Congress is broken. That will not work in this age of the internet and fast turnaround expectations. It could mean a Third World America for certain as well, if we cannot put the publics interest to work for all of us instead of just the rich few.
Finally, the lies. All campaigns have them and you see it all the time. But in this age of the internet and unbridled spending, I have never seen more people sick and tired of being bombarded with advertising in my life. No one believes any ads they see anymore and if the public had a chance, they would want all the ads to stop. No ads. People would like to see that. None.
These three items must be dealt with along with redistricting. (The color of America will change more and more and I think it will be inevitable the demonizing blacks and latinos is just not going to work and portends poorly on the scare tactics of the Republicans.
So, I had to write this. It was long, but you have it wrong, which is worse than what I have, which is long.
Comment: #3
Posted by: Robert
Wed Nov 3, 2010 4:36 PM
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Dear Mr. Shields,
As a longstanding viewer of The Newshour, I have always admired your balanced and cogent perspective. I am, therefore, disappointed by your embrace of the news media's "boilerplate" interpretation of the recent election. You disparage Obama for his hubris and insensitivity to his constituency.
Certainly, President Obama was given a mandate in the 2008 election. Has he not focused on fulfilling the promise of his mandate? The President has not tackled many of the issues for which he campaigned. However, he has not implemented or attempted to implement legislation for which he did not campaign. The enactment of his mandate's components has been emasculated by the relentless and purposeful obstruction of Republicans and Bluedog Democrats.
So here we are. Does the president honor, compromise or abandon his mandate? John Boehner now claims that he has a mandate. What does that look like? Philosophy informs us that a premise cannot be proven or defined by negation. I have seen nothing but negation from Mr. Boehner and his colleagues. Yes, this is a very difficult period. I will continue to support the president in his pursuit of the program for which he was elected.
Respectfully.
Steven Harvey
Comment: #4
Posted by: Steven Harvey
Thu Nov 4, 2010 5:23 PM
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