Political sages turn today's polling and past voter behavior into confident predictions about upcoming elections. That's their job. But fortune-tellers may do nearly as well, especially when the vote takes place months in the future.
Public sentiment can shift on a dime, and in any case, isn't always properly measured. You know the saying about data and computers: "Garbage in, garbage out." Even Madam Marie knew that.
Nonetheless, thick were the prophecies last month that Democrats would have their clock cleaned over health care reform. Then the legislation passed, the public started warming to the idea, and the seers ran back to their calculators to revise downward the Democrats' impending losses come November.
This would be a harmless exercise if people didn't take it seriously. But they do. Predictions of voter revolts can become self-fulfilling. They make soft-spined politicians lose their nerve and act against their consciences. They cause good people to withdraw from races in competitive districts.
Junk-laden data almost brought down health care reform. The American people disliked the bill, the polls kept telling us. But you didn't have to be Nostradamus to recognize that the respondents were giving their opinions based on propaganda, outright lies and, in many cases, displeasure that the reforms weren't going far enough.
Back in February, respected pundit Charlie Cook warned Democrats away from the legislation. "Would they really help themselves by enacting something that most voters say they don't like and don't want?" he asked in the National Journal. The month before, Cook declared the Democrats' efforts on health care reform "a colossal miscalculation."
Leave aside the quaint notion that some politicians may choose to do what's right for the country and worry about helping themselves later. Here was a "something" that voters obviously didn't understand in the fog of political war — but that they certainly would once the dust settled.
I enjoy Charlie Cook and respect the man's nonpartisanship.
His interpretation of numbers may provide a useful snapshot of public feelings at the moment. But as a basis for all but calling an election 10 months away, it does not serve the civic culture.
And it may be very wrong. "A year and a half before the 2006 election, Cook wrote that "it would take a tidal wave higher than '94's for Republicans to lose control of both houses of Congress," and "no one" predicts that. As it happened, everyone was wrong. Republicans lost the majority in both the House and the Senate.
One group that did understand the dynamics of the health care legislation — that it would prove more popular once passed — was the Republican leadership. That's why in the hours before the House vote, House Minority Leader John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell issued hysterical warnings directly to Blue Dog Democrats, who tend to represent conservative districts: They would lose, lose, lose in November if they sided with the bill, said Boehner and McConnell. You don't think Republicans were trying to help them keep their seats, do you?
The immediate reaction to the bill's success bore out Republican fears. A USA Today/Gallup poll showed 49 percent of adults suddenly calling passage a "good thing" and only 40 percent deeming it a "bad thing." One expects that support to solidify in the months to come.
And to think that Democrats almost blew their chance to start fixing the health care mess over some polls that measured little more than the public's confusion.
As fate would have it, a fortune cookie recently provided the wisest advice to political prognosticators. "The smart thing is to prepare for the unexpected," the fortune said. The next one should read, "Modesty is a great virtue."
To find out more about Froma Harrop, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate web page at www.creators.com.
"But you didn't have to be Nostradamus to recognize that the respondents were giving their opinions based on propaganda, outright lies and, in many cases, displeasure that the reforms weren't going far enough... & ...A USA Today/Gallup poll showed 49 percent of adults suddenly calling passage a "good thing" and only 40 percent deeming it a "bad thing." One expects that support to solidify in the months to come." I'm one of those respondents. I did my own research. I came to my conclusions to oppose this bill without blindly following like a sheep. Most of the people opposed to this bill did the same as I. It is arrogant of you to classify us as unthinking goons. The outright lies were (and still are) spread by the leftists, hell bent, on destroying this country. Federal government forcing its citizens to buy health insurance is wrong. Spending more money than one has cannot, ever, reduce the deficit. A temporary "blip" in poll data is hardly worthy of gloating. If, the support does not solidify then, you should retire from writing.
Comment: #1
Posted by: David Henricks
Mon Mar 29, 2010 10:42 PM
Please be skeptical of screeds that employ lies, fear, anger, meanness, and personal attacks rather than examination of ideas. The comment by David Hendricks does all of these:
Lies - "...you to classify us as unthinking goons." Ms. Harrop hasn't, and probably never would.
Fear - "...leftists, hell bent on destroying this country." No, open your eyes and look around to see this is a lie.
Anger - "arrogant", "goons", "gloating", etc. Inflammatory language robs argument of logic and rationality.
Meanness - "blindly following like a sheep", "...leftists, hell bent...". Judgmentalism and hypocrisy are ugly.
Personal attack - "arrogant of you", "you should retire from writing".
Come on, David, you can do better than this. The author you attack seems to me to be far more honest, intelligent, better informed, and of good will than you are. You do the conservative agenda no service by attacking liberals this way. I'm for dropping the labels and working together for the good of our country and all its citizens, and the rest of the world, as well.
Comment: #2
Posted by: Jan Miller
Mon Mar 29, 2010 11:50 PM
A rebuttal to Froma Harrop's March 31, 2010 column:
A retired Constitutional lawyer has read the entire proposed government healthcare bill. His conclusions follow. Please pass this on as you wish, as well as making your opinion known to your elected ' representatives ' in Washington ..
The Truth About the Health Care Bills - Michael Connelly, Constitutional Attorney
Well, I have done it! I have read the entire text of proposed House Bill 3200: The Affordable Health Care Choices Act of 2009. I studied it with particular emphasis from my area of expertise, constitutional law. I was frankly concerned that parts of the proposed law that were being discussed might be unconstitutional. What I found was far worse than what I had heard or expected.
To begin with, much of what has been said about the law and its implications is in fact true, despite what the Democrats and the media are saying. The law does provide for rationing of health care, particularly where senior citizens and other classes of citizens are involved, free health care for illegal immigrants, free abortion services, and quite probably participation in abortions by members of the medical profession.
The Bill will also eventually force private insurance companies out of business, and put everyone into a government run system. All decisions about personal health care will ultimately be made by federal bureaucrats, and most of them will not be health care professionals. Hospital admissions, payments to physicians, and allocations of necessary medical devices will be strictly controlled by the government.
However, as scary as all of that is, it just scratches the surface. In fact, I have concluded that this legislation really has no intention of providing affordable health care choices. Instead it is a convenient cover for the most massive transfer of power to the Executive Branch of government that has ever occurred, or even been contemplated If this law or a similar one is adopted, major portions of the Constitution of the United States will effectively have been destroyed.
The first thing to go will be the masterfully crafted balance of power between the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial branches of the U.S. Government. The Congress will be transferring to the Obama Administration authority in a number of different areas over the lives of the American people, and the businesses they own.
The irony is that the Congress doesn ' t have any authority to legislate in most of those areas to begin with! I defy anyone to read the text of the U.S. Constitution and find any authority granted to the members of Congress to regulate health care.
This legislation also provides for access, by the appointees of the Obama administration, of all of your personal healthcare direct violation of the specific provisions of the 4th Amendment to the Constitution information, your personal financial information, and the information of your employer, physician, and hospital. All of this is a protecting against unreasonable searches and seizures. You can also forget about the right to privacy. That will have been legislated into oblivionregardless of what the 3rd and 4th Amendments may provide.
If you decide not to have healthcare insurance, or if you have private insurance that is not deemed acceptable to the Health Choices Administrator appointed by Obama, there will be a tax imposed on you. It is called a tax instead of a fine because of the intent to avoid application of the due process clause of the 5th Amendment.However, that doesn ' t work because since there is nothing in the law that allows you to contest or appeal the imposition of the tax, it is definitely depriving someone of property without the due process of law.
So, there are three of those pesky amendments that the far left hate so much, out the original ten in the Bill of Rights, that are effectively nullified by this law It doesn ' t stop there though.
The 9th Amendment that provides: The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people;
The 10th Amendment states: The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are preserved to the States respectively, or to the people. Under the provisions of this piece of Congressional handiwork neither the people nor the states are going to have any rights or powers at all in many areas that once were theirs to control.
I could write many more pages about this legislation, but I think you get the idea. This is not about health care; it is about seizing power and limiting rights. Article 6 of the Constitution requires the members of both houses of Congress to "be bound by oath or affirmation to support the Constitution." If I was a member of Congress I would not be able to vote for this legislation or anything like it, without feeling I was violating that sacred oath or affirmation. If I voted for it anyway, I would hope the American people would hold me accountable.
For those who might doubt the nature of this threat, I suggest they consult the source, the US Constitution, and Bill of Rights. There you can see exactly what we are about to have taken from us.
Michael Connelly
Retired attorney, Constitutional Law Instructor
Carrollton, Texas
Comment: #3
Posted by: Mike
Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:19 AM
It was not comforting to read Froma Harrop's column, March 31, telling concerned citizens that we were the dupes of "propaganda" when it came to the health care legislation. Her contentions are that we voters were not smart enough to know when we are being lied to and are fickle enough to forget.
Where we can agree, there has been no legislation in my lifetime that has had more exposure to what was included and less substance available to read. Therefore, "propaganda" from the proponents and opponents guided much of the discussions.
Why? Because both the house and senate bills were long, obtuse and designed for voter obfuscation. Even, Speaker Pelosi said they had to pass the bill to see what was in it. And, she has a history of guiding legislation that she has not read.
Harrop says we were duped to oppose the bill. We may not all be apologists for the liberal legislation, but we can read and understand. The fact that the Democrat legislators exempted themselves, their staffs and a myriad of other sacred cows are probably good indications that they fear the results of their bills.
While public opinion may "turn on a dime", I am thinking public disgust with the process that exempts states like Nebraska, Florida, and Louisiana is not "propaganda." Turning over the best health system in the world to a government that has already proven it cannot manage Social Security and Medicare does not require "Nostradamus to recognize" that we are in jeopardy of losing it.
Comment: #4
Posted by: TR Tomkins
Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:21 AM
News Flash!!!!
After almost two weeks of a media bounce on health care, Democrats are still sinking with voters.
The latest Gallup poll shows the lowest favorability rating for the party (41 percent) since the firm started asking the question 18 years ago ...
Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Morning-Must-Reads----Passing-Obamacare-didnt-stop-the-bleeding--89680422.html#ixzz0jrGLjcr1
Comment: #5
Posted by: David Henricks
Thu Apr 1, 2010 7:21 AM
Another News Flash!!!!!!!!!!The latest CBS News Poll, conducted between March 29 and April 1, found Americans unhappier than ever with Mr. Obama's handling of health care - and still worried about the state of the economy. President Obama's overall job approval rating has fallen to an all-time low of 44 percent, down five points from late March, just before the health bill's passage in the House of Representatives. It's down 24 points since his all-time high last April. Forty-one percent of those polled said they disapproved of the president's performance. And yet, here's Obama yesterday telling these same citizens that they're nuts to doubt his superior intelligence on health care reform. Pompous, arrogant, disrespectful - is it any wonder so many are beginning to oppose him? [See Rick Moran April2, 2010]
Comment: #6
Posted by: David Henricks
Fri Apr 2, 2010 7:31 AM