Obama's Campaigning Worked

President Obama's last ditch attempt to turn out his voter base worked and changed the 2010 election from a tsunami of epic proportions into a mere catastrophe for the Democrats.

John Zogby's post-election polling reveals that voters who made up their minds about how to vote within the last week voted Democrat by 57 to 31, while those who made up their minds earlier backed the Republican candidate by 53 to 44. Zogby's data indicated that it made no difference whether the voter decided for whom to vote two or three weeks before the election or more than a month before. Both groups backed Republicans by 10 points. But those who decided in the voting booth or in the week immediately before voting backed the Democrat by large margins.

Fortunately for the GOP, only 8 percent of the electorate was late deciders. A full 46 percent was early voters!

These Democratic late deciders were all straight from the party's base:

— Fifteen percent of single voters decided late, and singles voted 64 percent Democrat.

— Fourteen percent of under $25,000 income voters decided late, and voters in this income category voted Democrat by 59 to 36.

— Twenty percent of voters ages 18 to 29 decided late, and this group backed Obama by 56 to 37.

So Obama's appearances on "The Daily Show" and on youth-oriented media worked well to his party's advantage.

Race, age and marital status were the key predictors of how a person would vote.

Racially, the Zogby Poll shows that blacks cast only 10 percent of the vote and Latinos only 8 percent in the 2010 elections. In 2008, they cast 13 percent and 10 percent, respectively.

Obama did well among Latinos. His appeals based on immigration worked. Hispanics voted Democrat by 58 to 37. But, surprisingly, Zogby showed erosion among black voters, who backed the Democrat by only 72 to 24, well below their percentage for Obama himself in 2008.

Age played a key role in determining one's vote:

— Among the youngest voters, 18 to 24, Democrats got 66 percent of the vote.

— More broadly, those ages 18 to 29 voted Democrat 56 to 37.

— Those ages 30 to 49 were split fairly evenly, with Democrats winning 47 percent and Republicans 50 percent.

— Voters 50 to 64, the baby boomers, have shifted to the Republicans, backing them by 54 to 43.

— And, thanks to Obamacare, the over-65 voters backed Republicans by 57-38.

But voters under 30 comprised only 11 percent of the vote, and those 18 to 24 were just 3 percent. The failure of these groups to turn out in larger numbers did much to doom the Democratic candidates.

Marital status continued to be one of the key variables in our politics:

— Married men voted Republican by 60 to 35.

— Married women followed suit by 58 to 40.

— Unmarried men voted Democrat by 50 to 42.

— Unmarried women voted Democrat by 61 to 34.

Oddly, Obama's last-minute appeal seems to have been effective based largely on demographics, not on union membership. The unions are the Democratic Party's financial base, but not their voters. Union members broke evenly with 49 percent backing Democrats and 47 percent voting Republican.

Historically, Democrats "come home" as Election Day approaches and those whose involvement in politics is most marginal — who tend to be poorer, less educated and more Democrat — make late decisions to support Democrats. The 2010 election was no exception to this trend.

I had thought that it would be. Based on the solid Republican trend that continued well into October, I believed that the late deciders would tend to side more with the GOP than usual. I felt that those who normally voted Democrat would stay at home. They didn't. And Obama's last-minute campaigning had a lot to do with it.

Dick Morris and Eileen McGann are authors of the new book "2010: Take Back America — A Battle Plan." To find out more about Dick Morris and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate web page at www.creators.com.

COPYRIGHT 2010 DICK MORRIS AND EILEEN MCGANN

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