How Obama Can Win

Is Hillary Clinton bicoastal? Can she win in America's heartland? These questions surface in the wake of her victories in New York-New Jersey-Massachusetts and in California-Arizona and her defeats everywhere else except in her former native state of Arkansas and its two next-door neighbors Tennessee and Oklahoma.

While she was winning the dwellings of America's elite, Obama was sweeping everyplace else, including states where there is virtually no black population. His wins in Utah, Idaho, Minnesota, Illinois, North Dakota, Kansas and Colorado demonstrate an incredible ability to win white votes. And his success in Missouri, Alabama and Georgia show that he continues to dominate Southern states with their large minority population.

Why is Hillary doing so poorly in the heartland? There, away from the bias of the liberal media and the establishment, and away from the immigrant and Latino concentrations on the coasts, she seems at a loss. Voting more for a name than for a person, these recently arrived voters are really supporting the memory of Bill's presidency more than the prospect of a Hillary administration.

The basic fact is that Obama is winning the primaries among younger, better educated, less immigrant populations. Among these groups, the future matters more than the past, and the record of the Bill Clinton administration and the implications of a Hillary presidency are separate and distinct. It is the remembered glory of the '90s for older and less educated voters that is buoying Hillary candidacy.

But the Northeast and California have already voted. Now the race turns to the heartland, where Obama's advantage may come into play, for he is running very well in "flyover country." Over the next two weeks nine states — with as many delegates combined as California — will cast their votes.

Obama should win Louisiana, Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia because of their large black populations. His strength in the Midwest will likely give him victories, as well, in Nebraska and Wisconsin. Washington and Maine could go either way. Hillary's strength among California Asians probably means she'll win Hawaii. But Obama will probably creep up in delegates as February unfolds.

Then come the real heartland primaries on March 4 — Texas and Ohio. Obama's strength in the Midwest augers well for Ohio. Hillary has yet to demonstrate an appeal in this region, while Obama's wins in Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, Missouri and Iowa indicate real strength in the region.

In Texas, the Hispanic vote will be key. Hillary carried California even though Obama won among both blacks and whites! But Hillary prevailed among the third of the vote that was cast by Latinos. To carry Texas, Obama will have to close the gap among Hispanics. His support for drivers licenses for illegal immigrants — which, at latest count, Hillary opposes — will probably be key in any drive to capture their votes.

Hillary continues to run the same campaign she always has based on her inherited experience and her laundry list of proposed new government programs. Obama, meanwhile, is inspiring voters to rally to his cause. As the race moves to middle America, the Illinois senator may have the advantage.

And the super delegates? Obviously, they will tend to vote for Hillary. But only if the popularly elected delegates split fairly evenly do they dare tip the convention in her favor. If they reject the will of the voters and jam Hillary down their throats, they will have hell to pay, just as the Democratic Party elite did in the streets of Chicago in 1968.

So the Democratic race is far from over, and Obama could yet pull it off.

To find out more about Dick Morris and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate web page at www.creators.com.

COPYRIGHT 2008 DICK MORRIS AND EILEEN MCGANN

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