Stymied about Syria

The Syrian city of Aleppo, Halab in Arabic, centuries ago marked the end of the Silk Road, a trading route through central Asia and Mesopotamia. The city saw a decline, at least in trade, when the Suez Canal was opened in 1869. This was further exacerbated following the fall of the Ottoman Empire after World War I and the emergence of modern-day Turkey.

But Aleppo, Syria's largest city, with a population of 2 million, has always been important, strategically and symbolically.

On Nov. 26, rebels battling the regime of President Bashar al-Assad captured a hydroelectric dam on the Euphrates River in northern Syria, reported Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Loss of the Tishrin dam sharply diminishes the government's control in Aleppo.

The battle for Aleppo is crucial — it may very well determine the victor in the 20-month civil war that has killed more than 40,000 people. Rebel control of the city would bring easier access for weapons and fighters coming south from Turkey. However, an Islamist faction within the rebel movement has declared an Islamic state in Aleppo, so pessimism about the future of the region is well founded.

"I had projected the rise of uprisings in the Arab countries, but also predicted that, as dictators would fall, there would be a race between Islamists and seculars," Walid Phares, adviser to House of Representatives' Anti-Terrorism Caucus, told us.

"And that was what happened in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and in Libya."

Libya, rapidly becoming a hotbed of Islamism since dictator Moammar Gadhafi was ousted and killed, has erroneously been hailed as a template for Western action regarding Syria, particularly with calls for intervention.

"Libya's jihadists, funded by Gulf petrodollars, have been shipping Libyan weapons via Turkey to Syria's Salafists. This is creating a radical Islamist force inside Syria," Mr. Phares told us. "The Obama administration thought that by having Arab allies fund the arming of the opposition and shipping these weapons to Syria's rebels, the [Assad] regime will crumble without direct U.S. involvement."

Internet and mobile phone communication was cut off this week, according to a global monitoring firm. The doomed governments in Egypt and Libya also shut down Internet service.

The West and Israel don't want the conflict to spread in the region, but options are limited and do not serve Western interests. Military intervention could spark a wider war that embroils Turkey, a member of NATO. It's clear the United Nations, particularly because of Russian obstinacy, will not act. But backing an opposition coalition that includes radical Islamists could backfire on the U.S. There is no guarantee about where weapons will wind up after the current regime is ousted.

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