Obama's Fall

From Washington, comes the latest variation on the age-old question about the chicken and the egg: Did President Barack Obama lose his way when he lost independent voters? Or did he lose independent voters when he lost his way?

It doesn't matter which came first. This much is clear. Because of both missteps and misplaced policies, Obama has lost the support of independent voters, the largest and fastest-growing segment of the electorate and an irreplaceable part of Obama's winning coalition. And unless he finds a way to stop the bleeding and turn things around, it could cripple his presidency.

According to a Gallup Poll in May, 66 percent of independents approved of Obama's job performance. By August, it was only 49 percent. In a recent CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, 53 percent of independents said they disapprove of how Obama's handling his duties in the White House and only 43 percent approve. That's down 8 points from June.

What happened this summer to sour so many independents? Three words: Health care reform. Or rather, Congress' stab at it, and Obama's arrogant declaration that Democrats would pass a reform package with or without GOP support. That take-it-or-leave-it attitude did not endear the president to independent voters, who have a low tolerance for hyper-partisanship. That's one reason so many independents were drawn to Obama, who was marketed as not just post-racial but also post-partisan.

Let's not forget what Obama said during his address at the 2004 Democratic Convention: "There are no red states; there are no blue states; there is only the United States of America." Independent voters loved it.

Against John McCain, who always did well with independent voters, Obama won that demographic by an 8-point margin. Now those gains have evaporated. That is especially painful for Obama because the number of voters who identify with either party is going down while the number of those who identify as "independent" is going up.

Aside from style, it also hasn't helped the president that he has strayed so far from the center in his policies. In playing to his base on the far left on taxes, the economy and health care, Obama all but ensures that he'll continue to lose the support of the rest of the electorate. According to the CNN poll, nine out of 10 Democrats support his polices but only 15 percent of Republicans do. That's not a recipe for success.

Even Obama's plans next week to give a nationally televised back-to-school address that stresses the importance of working hard, staying in school and achieving goals has caused a backlash and given some voters pause. Maybe the president should instead use the time to remind the children of the importance of working with others, keeping your word and going beyond your comfort zone. Then, Obama can put all that into practice by making peace with the independents and bringing back the person they thought they elected.

REPRINTED FROM THE SAN DIEGO UNION-TRIBUNE.

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