Immigration Decline

When Americans learn that fewer Mexican immigrants are coming to the United States, many assume enhanced border enforcement is paying off. Not so fast. A new study suggests that the lower numbers of migrants have more to do with diminished job opportunities in the United States.

When a team of researchers from the Center for Comparative Immigration Studies at the University of California San Diego interviewed more than 1,000 people from a small town in the Mexican state of Yucatan, they found that about 25 percent fewer people are considering crossing this year, compared to a similar study they did three years ago. The researchers also found that 90 percent of those interviewed said it was getting harder to find gainful employment in the United States.

The Mexicans who were interviewed were well aware of the beefed-up border enforcement that the United States has put in place in recent years, including more fencing and more Border Patrol officers.

But they didn't seem to care much about that, according to the research. The same was true in the 2006 findings. Apparently, the necessity to feed one's family still overrides concerns about being nabbed at the border. And those who are nabbed usually try again soon after being returned to Mexico.

Tighter enforcement on the border has had an indirect effect, in that it has caused immigrant smugglers to raise their rates. The price has gone up eight times in the last three years, according to the study. And, because of the recession, many employers are no longer willing to pay the freight for workers as they have in the past.

This study rings true. Still, let's keep in mind that variations in migratory patterns are no substitute for real and comprehensive immigration reform. When the U.S. economy comes back, so will the immigrants.

REPRINTED FROM THE SAN DIEGO UNION-TRIBUNE.

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