President Barack Obama and the congressional Democratic leadership seem determined to engage in a high-wire act without a net. It might be possible to admire them for their courage in the face of the unpopularity of their cause, and there is no shortage of cheerleaders in the hothouse of Babylon-on-the-Potomac. But it is likely that their contempt for public opinion will backfire on them.
In his terse White House speech followed by no question period last week, the president made it clear that, despite popular opinion and numerous procedural difficulties ahead, he intends to orchestrate a no-holds-barred campaign to get "a final vote on health care reform" before the Easter recess in a few weeks. Although he avoided the dread word "reconciliation," a controversial and divisive procedure to get around a Senate filibuster, it's clear that's how he intends to proceed.
Although the Democrats hold solid majorities in both the House and the Senate, the president is still having problems finding a majority in his own party.
The reasons are simple. The Pollster.com cumulative rating from all national polls has shown a majority of Americans opposed to the health care plans on offer that has held since July. Massachusetts — Massachusetts! — elected a Republican senator largely on the strength of opposition to Obamacare. Tea parties and town halls have shaken the confidence of Obamacare advocates. And politicians don't relish being defeated at the polls.
The president and his people seem to believe further government control over health care — even as European countries experiencing shortcomings are looking to market-oriented reforms — will be seen as an historic achievement rivaling Social Security and winning World War II, so they are willing to sacrifice their party's majority in Congress to get it.
The processes are arcane and there are plenty of favors to hand out to buy votes. So if the public doesn't make its wishes known forcefully, the Democrats just might get there.
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