Bailout: The Street is Skeptical

Wall Street on Monday rendered its verdict on the government's $700 billion financial rescue plan. Put simply, the Street thinks it's not enough.

The stock market rode a roller coaster. The Dow Jones industrial average was down more than 800 points at one point, pushing it below 10,000 for the first time in four years. It recovered some of that ground as the afternoon proceeded, closing down 370 points or 3.6 percent.

Bonds also lost value as investors worried that solid industrial companies, which have no direct connection to banking, could have trouble paying their debts in months to come.

Investors ran for safety in Treasury bills.

The stock market is a fickle beast. But lately it is reflecting increased concern that the nation is sinking deeper into recession and that no bailout plan can refloat it soon.

There's plenty of reason for that worry. In America, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury are coordinating a monumental effort to recapitalize ailing banks and shore up the financial system against waves of fear that threaten to dry up credit.

The concern has spread to Europe, where banks are beginning to shake and fall. The European Union has no equivalent of the Treasury Department to coordinate a bailout, so individual countries are scrambling to guarantee deposits in an effort to head off runs on their banks.

Trouble abroad could cut U.S. exports and slow U.S.

factories, and exports have been one of the few bright spots in the American economy this year.

The banking debacle is a year old, but until recently it had had only a limited impact on the rest of the U.S. economy. In fact, the economy grew for the first six months of the year, and unemployment numbers were minor by the standards of past recessions.

Now that's starting to change.

Auto companies saw sales drop 16 percent to 33 percent last month in the United States, largely because many buyers can't get loans. "You saw one business after another postponing expansion plans, mainly because they can't get financing," says Joe Terril of Terril & Co, a wealth management firm in Des Peres, Mo.

That's a surefire predictor of a significant recession, and the markets are reflecting it. The price of oil fell another $4.33 to $89.55 per barrel on Monday. Oil is now off nearly 40 percent from its high of last summer; traders are betting that a suffering economy will decrease demand.

Another big indicator of recession: last week's report that 159,000 Americans lost jobs in September.

The Federal Reserve Board and Treasury Department have taken unprecedented steps to halt the panic. The Fed is pumping billions into the credit system to stop it from seizing up, and the Treasury has embarked on a direct bailout of banks.

So far Wall Street is not impressed. The bad economic news has lessened the risk of inflation, and the Fed should consider a cut in short-term interest rates. But at this point, nothing may prevent a significant recession.

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