Which Is Better to Have in a Hand: the Lead or the Odds? by Russ Scott on Creators.com

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Which Is Better to Have in a Hand: the Lead or the Odds?

One reader this week asks me to analyze an interesting hand, while another finds a poker parallel in the recent "American Idol" finale.

Q: I have a running discussion with friends about a recent hand at a home game. It was A-J offsuit against K-Q of clubs. Most feel the K-Q was dominant after the flop came Jc-10c-5d, but some believe the A-J had the edge. Can you analyze this for us? — Michael S., no hometown given.

A: That's an exciting flop, Michael!

It's no wonder the player with A-J moved all-in after flopping top pair of jacks with an ace kicker. I'm a little surprised the player with K-Q hesitated to figure his odds of catching a winning card — most players would have insta-called.

Before calling, the K-Q player took time to count his potential outs (cards that could come on the turn or river to improve his hand into a winner). As far as he knew, there were nine clubs left to complete his flush or straight flush; three additional nines and three more aces to make his straight, plus three remaining kings and three queens that also would beat his opponent's pair of jacks.

So, if all of his outs were live in the 47 remaining unseen cards, that's 21 outs twice (two cards to come), which would make him a 70 percent favorite.

But is calling in this spot always the correct play? To answer that, more elements must be considered.

If you knew your opponent held exactly A-J, then almost every player I know would call. However, the K-Q player must make his decision without knowing for sure what his opponent is holding.

Against A-9 of clubs, for example, the K-Q player would be a 64-36 underdog after the flop. Against Ac-Ah, he'd be a 54-46 underdog.

Against pocket J-J, 10-10, or 5-5, his winning chances would plummet to 30 percent.

The decision to call or not rests on other factors besides math, such as whether this was a tournament or a cash game. If calling and losing knocks you out of a tournament, you might decide to wait for a better spot. In a cash game, the decision to call may be easier because you can buy back into the game if you lose.

The principle is this: If you believe you're behind and the risk is too great, you should fold. Even as a heavy favorite in the hand you described, the K-Q player will lose about one-third of the time.

So, who's right and who's wrong in your poker group's assessment of which hand is better? Based on the math — after the flop with no more bets forthcoming — it's the K-Q. Based on the belief it's better to be ahead in a hand when you move all your chips in, then it's the A-J.

Finally, which hand would I rather have in this situation? Well, I'd like to be holding the A-J, forcing my opponent to hit a card to beat me.

Q: The whole Kris Allen vs. Adam Lambert competition on "American Idol" has a poker analogy to it.

Adam is the guy who dominates the table in the early stages of a poker tournament, building a stack with all guns blazing, intimidating some of the opposition with his obvious prowess, confidence and bravado.

Kris is the quiet, studious guy who plays consistently, showing the occasional flash of poker skills, but who makes few mistakes and knows that the game is won when the blinds and antes get high. The longer the time spent on an even keel, the more one has to bring to the end game.

Do you agree? — Bruce C. in the Illinois Quad-Cities.

A: Heck, yeah. Adam even has his bad-beat scream perfected already!

E-mail your poker questions and comments to russ@luckydogpoker.com for use in future columns. To find out more about Russ Scott and read previous LuckyDog Poker columns, visit www.creators.com or www.luckydogpoker.com.

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