Lucky Dog Poker by Russ Scott

I'll bet you have asked yourself the same question raised this week in a player's e-mail.

Q: How is it that you can know where you are in a hand, manipulate an opponent to get his money in with the worst of it and still end up a loser when it really matters? What else am I supposed to do in these situations? — Tom H., no hometown given.

A: Your question is born from the frustration of losing two key pots recently to bust out of online no-limit hold 'em tournaments. Let's review the hands.

With blinds of 100-200 and a mid-level stack of 3,500 chips, you were in the big blind holding middle one-gap connectors such as 8-6. Two players limped in (didn't raise), and both had you covered in chips.

"The flop was a dream for me," Tom wrote. "It was rainbow (three different suits), and I flopped a well-hidden straight." you didn't specify what cards came on the flop, but let's assume it was 5-7-9, giving you a stranglehold on the hand.

Your lead-out bet of $350 was half the size of the pot. The first limper raised 1,000, driving out the other opponent.

"I had to think the raise meant he had a set (three of a kind). I had just moved to this table, so I had no idea what kind of player he was. I was pretty sure he would not get away from his hand, so with the nuts (best possible hand at the moment), I moved all-in," Tom said in the e-mail.

The opponent called with a suited top pair and top kicker, so let's say it was the A-9 of diamonds. At this point, you were a 91.8 favorite to win. Your opponent needed both the turn and river cards to improve him to at least a flush or a full house. Two diamonds came for the flush.

What else could you have done? Absolutely nothing. You got all your chips in as a 9-to-1 favorite. It doesn't get much better than that!

Remember, you were a new player to him, also, so he couldn't be sure you had the straight.

Top pair-top kicker is plenty good enough for a lot of players to make that call. You just got very unlucky.

The second knockout came in a qualifier offering multiple seats into a million-dollar event. One more elimination, and everyone left would win a seat.

"One player had been pushing the final table around and had half the chips in play," Tom wrote. "I was low stack, but a double-up would put me in second chip position, and I could then relax a little."

On the button with K-K, you watched as Mr. Big Stack, first to act, made his normal raise of five times the big blind. "I re-raised all-in, knowing I was a big favorite and expecting a call. He did not disappoint and turned over A-9 offsuit. An ace on the river took me out on the bubble."

I like your all-in move pre-flop. You were a 70 percent to 80 percent favorite against any hand except pocket aces (71.3 in this instance). If you can't make your big stand with pocket kings, then geez, when can you?

There is another way to play this hand, although it likely would not have worked here.

Because A-x is a very possible holding for a pre-flop raiser, if you know your opponent won't fold, sometimes it's OK to just call the raise to see if the dreaded ace comes on the flop. If it does and you decide you're beat, you fold. If it doesn't, make your move. Most players will give up a weak-ace hand in that spot.

Unfortunately, in this specific circumstance, Mr. Big Stack probably never would have folded. If he wins, the event is over. If he loses, he still has enough chips to survive.

I like your plan to deal with these sad outcomes. I've used it myself. Tom wrote, "I am taking the rest of the month off from poker, just to try to reset my attitude."

E-mail your poker questions and comments to russ@luckydogpoker.com for use in future columns. To find out more about Russ Scott and read previous LuckyDog Poker columns, visit www.creators.com or www.luckydogpoker.com.

COPYRIGHT 2009 RUSS SCOTT

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