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'Bubble Dynamics' Tricky to Calculate Late in a Tournament
There's so much to think about when the tournament money bubble approaches that you almost need a computer to track everything. Let's call it "bubble dynamics" and answer an Illinois reader's question.
Q: Last week in a card room …Read more.
Reader Believes WSOP Main Event Was Just a 'Luckfest'
Last week's rousing finish at the World Series of Poker main event stirred questions from readers. Let's answer them.
Q: It seems to me that all you have to do to win the WSOP is get your chips in bad and then get lucky. Joe Cada wasn't the best …Read more.
Youth Prevails Again at Record-Setting World Series of Poker Finale
When the cheers finally subsided early Tuesday morning inside the Penn and Teller Theater at the Rio, the poker world was left with an unmistakable message: Youth WILL be served on the game's highest stage.
For the second straight year, the World …Read more.
Ol' LuckyDog Sorts Through World Series Final Table to Pick a Winner
With the highly anticipated World Series of Poker main event final table set to play out Saturday and late Monday, then aired on ESPN Tuesday night, an interesting question arises:
Which of these outcomes would benefit the game most?
— Is it a …Read more.
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Chance to Knock Out Brunson Too Good to Pass UpEven if you are sure your no-limit hold 'em opponent has pocket aces, is it ever correct to risk all of your tournament chips to play the hand? The answer is yes! Ken L. of Pennington, N.J., faced exactly that decision recently in an online tournament at Doyle's Room, a popular poker site with the added attraction of being able to play against poker legend Doyle Brunson, winner of 10 World Series bracelets. The weekly $11 tournament, a recent addition to the site's lineup of games, rewards any player who knocks out "Texas Dolly" with a $1,000 cash bounty, which is about double what you get if you win the event outright. Lesser bounties are available for eliminating other Brunson family members, but if one lucky player KO's them all in one tournament, it's worth a $100,000 jackpot. Ken described what happened: "Wouldn't you know it, but about 20 minutes into the event I was moved to a table with Doyle sitting to my immediate left, and I have him covered in chips. About five hands later, I'm dealt Q-Q in late position. An early position player raises the pot, I re-raise, and Doyle shoves all-in. The early player, who has me covered, also shoves," Ken said. "Now I KNOW Doyle's not messing around here with his all-in bet. He'll only four-bet all-in with the nuts so early on in a tournament. My poker brain is screaming at me to fold," he said. However, Ken further assessed the situation. He knew eliminating Brunson would be worth $1,000, a whopping 100:1 return on his buy-in. At worst, he knew he was about a four-to-one underdog to hit trip queens or better and win. Besides, in an event this size, it's unlikely he'll have another chance to play against Brunson and have him covered. "So I called. Doyle, of course, had A-A, and the early player had A-K offsuit. A flop of A-K-x destroyed me, and I was gone," Ken said. "I know full well that I should've mucked the hand under normal circumstances, and I almost DID fold it," Ken explained. Ken asked: "What's your opinion on this? Was I wrong to call?" No, you weren't wrong, Ken. Although your gut instinct was 100 percent correct about Brunson having pocket aces, your brain was 1,000 percent correct to ultimately make the call — for all of the reasons you cite. Based on the math, you actually would have been correct to call with any pocket pair, even if you knew you were behind both opponents. It's a credit to how you think about the game that you considered folding at all — first, because you KNEW you were behind, and second, because you didn't want to look foolish sitting next to the poker icon. The thing is, if the situation were reversed somehow, Brunson would make the call, too. No question. Ken then posed a variation to the situation. "The major flaw in my logic here seems to be that, provided you're heads-up against Doyle and have him covered, you have to call his all-in bet with any two cards," Ken said. "Can that really be right? Much of the time, the answer still is yes. Other factors should be considered, however. Before playing 7-2 offsuit trying to win a bounty against a likely monster hand, you should ask these questions: Is the tournament near the end? What are your chances of winning the event? Can you remain competitive if you lose the hand? Which would be more satisfying — winning the tournament or knocking out Brunson? If it's late in a tournament and you think you have, say, a 20 percent chance to win the event, then risking a crippling blow to your chip stack as a huge underdog is a mistake. Wait for a better spot to gamble. E-mail your poker questions and comments to russ@luckydogpoker.com for use in future columns. To find out more about Russ Scott and read previous LuckyDog Poker columns, visit www.creators.com or www.luckydogpoker.com. COPYRIGHT 2009 RUSS SCOTT DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS SYNDICATE INC.
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