I'm a fan of the evening news but find their reporting about our current economic situation pedestrian at best. Case in point — they continue to refer to the economy as a "roller coaster." Huh? A roller coaster is designed to be fun and exciting. If it's all the same to them, I'd like to get off and get a refund right about now.
Finances today are more akin to a blender running with the lid off. Be it stocks, bonds or commodities, it's all over the walls, and no one's pulling the plug. Just how big the mess will be is anyone's guess. Alan Greenspan's recent report to Congress was clear evidence of that.
Gold — specifically gold coins — is an ideal example. Last week, I responded to a question from a reader asking whether it's time to buy or sell gold. I'm not a psychic, and I don't play one on TV, so I couldn't answer definitively other than suggest to take profits if you need them or don't if you don't.
Given circumstances of the past week, I feel good about my answer. During that time, some friends have asked about buying gold coins. I phoned several dealers who make their living buying and selling gold coins. Right now, their business is primarily buying.
Fact is, gold coins have dried up. Find a dealer who has any to sell, and you've won the lottery. Even major online retailers who have been a key resource for gold owners no longer have gold coins in stock for sale. They post notices saying the coins are "currently not available."
So, what does all this mean? Gold prices have dropped some 30 percent since last March, but demand has skyrocketed for tangible gold coins. Yes, they are available from the U.S. Mint. They had stopped minting them but restarted the process a month or so ago.
One of the dealers with whom I spoke suggested they might be able to get one-ounce gold coins in two to three weeks. But, they would be Canadian Maple Leafs. No U.S. Eagles are available. That's fine. Maple Leafs are 99.999 percent pure gold and internationally recognized. Still, there, too, would be a premium of 8.5 percent over spot for a total of $787 per coin.
All this begs the question of just what's going on? Even with prices low (for now) it's not dissimilar to 1980, when the value of gold and silver skyrocketed to all-time highs. Back then, investors were encouraged to take delivery of gold — not just purchase or hold them "on paper."
It also may speak volumes about the pending election. Will the economy rebound with the new president or not? If so, who's the better bet? That's up to you. I don't play Bill O'Reilly or Al Franken on TV either.
Finally, it also may be a result of the growing strength of the dollar. Six months ago, the U.S. dollar was worth less than the Canadian dollar. Today, the U.S. buck is 28 percent stronger. Is that a result of gold? No. But, gold is certainly reacting to it.
So, where will gold go in the next year or so? Your best bet on that is to study the market, evaluate the election and then flip a coin. If you do, flip it on a roller coaster, and make sure I'm sitting in the seat behind you. And, make it a gold Maple Leaf. It's the only one most can find right now.
Editor's Note: A JPEG visual of a Canadian Maple Leaf gold coin has been sent with this column.
To find out more about Peter Rexford and to read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.
COPYRIGHT 2007 CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC.
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