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Lucky Dog Poker by Russ Scott

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How to Deal With Opponents Who Just Won't Fold

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Today's new poker players love to gamble, as readers in Texas and Pennsylvania report this week.

Q: I went to the WinStar Casino the other day, just north of Dallas into Oklahoma, and patiently waited out a bunch of cruddy cards in a no-limit cash game. Finally, I got a wired pair of queens. The other guy had A-9 and called my all-in bet! He had nothing until the river gave him an ace for the win. This is just sick! — Paul M. in Forney, Texas.

A: The hand you described is a bummer, Paul. Let's recap the pre-flop action.

With blinds of $1-$2, you open for $10. The player to your left calls with pocket tens, and Mr. A-9 raises to $25. Everyone folds back to you, and you re-raise to $50. Now, the player with pocket tens springs his trap and goes all-in for $80, which Mr. A-9 immediately calls. You push all-in for $150; Mr. A-9 calls that, too, closing all betting.

When the hands are turned up, you see you are way ahead. You have a 58 percent probability of winning the $380 pot, the A-9 has a 23 percent chance, and the pair of tens 18 percent. A harmless flop of 6-4-2 boosts your win percentage to 77 percent, and another four on the turn leaves your queens in total command. With one card to go, you are an 88 percent favorite!

Alas, an ace on the river stole the pot away and left you shaking your head. You wrote: "He called my all-in with nothing! Should I have played it another way?"

I don't think you played the hand terribly, Paul, but many players today love to gamble with A-x. They won't fold without extreme betting pressure against them — and perhaps not even then. Because of this, I now either raise really big pre-flop with pocket kings, queens and jacks, or I see the flop cheaply and make my big bet after the flop if no ace comes.

None of the individual pre-flop bet amounts in this hand — $10, $50, $80 and $150 — were enough to move Mr. A-9 off his hand. Even on your all-in re-raise to $150, he was getting nearly 4.5-1 pot odds to call $70 more. With a 23 percent chance to win, his final call was justified unless you held pocket aces.

As an option, if you had waited until after the flop to move all-in, he would have been just 13 percent to win.
If you'd waited until the turn to push, his chances would have dwindled to just 7 percent and his call there would have been a truly horrible play. With so many loose players out there, however, he still might have called.

Q: I saw your forum online as I was searching for answers to my current dilemma. Rarely does my good play get rewarded. My online account is down to $30, so I'm forced to play low-limit to build it back up, which stinks because of all the rookie players who run me down. Any advice? — Don M. in Philadelphia

A: Don, your "dilemma" is the same as Paul's — the willingness to gamble exhibited by so many newer players today. The frustration in your e-mail stands out:

"I'm practically on tilt. Whatever I do at the table is the wrong decision," you wrote.

Actually, your approach to the game is fine, Don — tight-aggressive style, reading good poker books, able to switch gears as needed and more. Kudos for that!

The standard answer when someone is running bad is that poker has an ever-present element of luck and a built-in math variance that can get out of whack. The accepted cure is to "play through the bad spell" until the math and luck even out.

I don't argue with that, but they're not concrete suggestions of what a player can do — right now — to turn the beats around. Here are some ideas:

— Take a break. You're correct, small-limit games are crapshoots. Since you hold your own much better against good players, consider sitting out until your bankroll allows you to play at limits where the action is more predictable.

— Be honest. Most poker players have selective memory. Try keeping a list of how many actual times you start with the best hand or worst hand, and record whether you win or lose. Maybe things aren't as bad as you think.

— Be selective. Tighten your starting-hand choices. If your online stats box shows you're seeing more than 20 percent of the flops, you probably are playing too many hands.

— Ask a friend. Your bad-luck stretch could be throwing you off your game. It's not always easy to recognize this. Ask your poker buddies if they've noticed anything different.

E-mail your poker questions and comments to russ@luckydogpoker.com for use in future columns. To find out more about Russ Scott and read previous LuckyDog Poker columns, visit www.creators.com or www.luckydogpoker.com.

COPYRIGHT 2008 RUSS SCOTT

DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS SYNDICATE INC.



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Originally Published on Tuesday April 15, 2008

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