Lucky Dog Poker by Russ Scott

What are the odds of losing a hold 'em hand after flopping top set against a better pocket pair? What's the easiest type of hold 'em tournament to win? Two Illinois players are looking for answers. Let's try to help.

Q: At our weekly no-limit hold 'em tournament, I flopped a set of jacks against my opponent's pocket kings. After all the chips went in, he hit a king on the river to knock me out. What were my odds of losing this hand? — Gordon M. in Kankakee, Ill.

A: On a flop of J-8-3, your trips were a 91 percent favorite with two board cards to come and no flush or straight draws possible. After a blank turn card, your winning odds became 95 percent.

The way this hand played out, Gordon, there was nothing else you could have done.

Your pre-flop bet size brings up several challenging points about playing pocket jacks. With blinds at 100-200, you were under the gun (first to act) and raised to 400 (the minimum). The only caller had pocket kings.

"This was a tight table, but I knew that anyone with a good pair or an ace was going all the way to the river with me. I figured if an ace came on the flop or I got a huge re-raise, I could let the jacks go," you wrote.

"I bet 600 after the flop, he raised all-in, and I snap-called for all my chips," you said.

Clearly, you were happy to shove in your stack with trips, but was your min-raise before the flop correct?

There's nothing wrong with making a small raise pre-flop from early position with J-J, cautiously waiting to see if the flop brings an ace or otherwise threatening cards such as three of the same suit. This play works best at a loose table when you know opponents won't fold any A-x hand. At a tight table, I normally would raise to three or four times the big blind — 600 to 800 in this instance — hoping to chase out weak-ace hands.

Like you, I might fold pre-flop if a tight player re-raises big, fairly confident I was behind.

With a short chip stack, however, I likely would call and hope I was up against A-K instead of A-A, K-K, or Q-Q.

Your opponent, by the way, made a crafty move by just calling your pre-flop raise, thus disguising the strength of his hand. He was setting a trap, but it almost backfired on him.

These variables make J-J the hardest paired hand to play at a full hold 'em table.

Q: Which type of hold 'em tournament is easiest to win? And don't just say "it depends," like I see from many writers! — Mike S. in Moline, Ill.

A: You're making this tough, Mike, but first let's describe the three types of tournaments you mentioned and assume there are 64 players in each.

— Elimination tournaments simply continue until only one player is left. Tables are kept as full as possible by moving players around as seats open.

— A shootout tournament also would start with eight players at each of the eight tables, but no players are moved. Play continues until there is one winner at each table, then those eight advance to the final table.

— In heads-up events, players are paired up for a first round of 32 matches. Then the field is cut in half each subsequent round until two players remain. To win the title, a player must win six straight heads-up matches.

Here's your answer (without once using the word "depends"):

A conservative player should fair best in an elimination event because the blinds come around more slowly and there are more opportunities to pick good hands to play against a constantly changing table lineup.

A versatile player who effectively can shift gears between tight and aggressive play, based on situations, likely would do best in a shootout because he only has to outplay 15 opponents.

An aggressive player stands the best chance of winning a heads-up tournament because both players must post blinds every hand, forcing them to fight for a lot of pots, often with marginal holdings.

E-mail your poker questions and comments to russ@luckydogpoker.com for use in future columns. To find out more about Russ Scott and read previous LuckyDog Poker columns, visit www.creators.com or www.luckydogpoker.com.

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