Lucky Dog Poker by Russ Scott

There's so much to think about when the tournament money bubble approaches that you almost need a computer to track everything. Let's call it "bubble dynamics" and answer an Illinois reader's question.

Q: Last week in a card room tournament, I was short-stacked on the bubble against six other players. I pushed three times with small and medium aces, but the third time I busted out seventh, one spot out of the money. Where's the line between desperation moves and patience? — Aaron G. in Moline, Ill.

A: Aaron and I were at the same starting table in this no-limit hold 'em event, but I was long gone by the time he was battling to get into the money.

The dynamics of tournament bubble play are tricky, Aaron. Proper strategy depends as much on chip-stack sizes, your betting position each hand and your read on opponents as it does on what cards you're holding.

Before thinking about any of that, you should decide your primary goal. Pros often say their only goal is first place, not just a money finish. To that end, bubble play for them means heavy aggression against those being cautious.

But you're a relatively new player with, from what I saw, a solid game. Until you are more experienced, your best strategy is the one you used — playing to get into the money first, then moving up from there.

With seven players left, 200-400 blinds and a 100 ante, you had less than 10 big blinds (under 4,000) left in chips. "So, I figured if I was dealt an ace, pairs or big cards, I should push," your e-mail said.

"That would be 'conventional wisdom', but I wonder: Should I have been more patient?"

Not necessarily. Pushing all-in pre-flop with any ace when you're desperate for chips is a pretty standard play. However, be careful about making that move with ace-rag from first or second betting position. In this case, five or six players with taller stacks were yet to act behind you, and any one of them could have a better hand.

Next, consider how your opponents are playing. If most of them are protecting their chips, be more inclined to push with all of the hands you mentioned. Conversely, if you think someone will call, then all you can do is pick a reasonable hand and take a stand.

Many players consider 10 big blinds as the breaking point for moving all-in with a short stack, but I've seen players survive the money bubble — and even win tournaments — by waiting much longer. It's nerve-wracking and takes great discipline, but sometimes it pays off.

With just one bust-out to go before making the money, my "rule of thumb," as you put it, is to keep throwing away all truly lousy hands for as long as I can. I'm willing to wait until I'm down to about five big blinds before picking a hand and moving in.

There's another key reason to wait as long as possible to commit your last chips: It increases the chance that an opponent will make a mistake or get unlucky in a big hand and bust out ahead of you, allowing you to cash.

You played well to go that deep, partner, and your bubble strategy was sound. It just didn't work out this time.

E-mail your poker questions and comments to russ@luckydogpoker.com for use in future columns. To find out more about Russ Scott and read previous LuckyDog Poker columns, visit www.creators.com or www.luckydogpoker.com.

COPYRIGHT 2009 RUSS SCOTT

DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS SYNDICATE INC.