Did American Eagles Get a Bit Tarnished?

By Peter Rexford

April 25, 2013 5 min read

A visit to the dentist last week proved a bit more painful than usual. It wasn't because of a dental procedure. My pain surfaced in the waiting room. I wasn't alone. The day was equally agonizing to loads more people with dental needs or not. The reason — precious metals, specifically, gold.

As I waited, I checked my smart phone for emails, calls and general info. Top of the list in the info category was the stock market. It was plummeting. By the end of the day, it would be down 265 points. That was going to hurt a lot of people.

As I said, according to news reports, the market collapse was due to gold. The day before, the price of the precious metal had dropped $80 per ounce. In the world of gold, that's big. That didn't hold a candle to my dental day as I watched it plunge another $156 per ounce — the biggest one day drop in price since 2006. Silver didn't fare much better.

As I glanced at what the markets were doing, I also picked up a copy of Smithsonian magazine in the waiting room. The high caliber of people who read it was evident given the number of full-page ads for gold and silver coins. Given the day's price decline, my seeing the ads was serendipitous. One ad claimed "The Silver Rush Is On." Another touted gold and silver as "Wealth Insurance," saying that "Now is the perfect time to add more gold and silver to your investment portfolio."

My favorite ad was one that was selling 1/10-ounce gold American Eagle coins for $176.50 apiece. The price wasn't out-of-line given recent values and premiums. It was the copy that caught my eye. It noted that gold "is predicted by experts to have the explosive upside potential of reaching up to $10,000 per ounce." Really? Would any of those experts care to sign their name to that prediction?

In fairness, I understand the hype. It would be foolish if the ads didn't tout the metal's meteoric rise since 2001. What I don't get is how many "experts" jump on the bandwagon when prices are clearly going in one direction. Anyone can be a psychic for yesterday — even me.

Most amusing were the post-event "predictions" doled out by financial pundits after the collapse. Everyone took credit for knowing it was going to happen. In news stories and blogs, the "pros" were out in force. A few of the headlines read: "Can Gold Plummet to $400/ounce?"; "Gold Trades At Most Oversold Levels On Record"; "Gold In The Crosshairs"; "Looks Like The Gold Bears Were Right"; "Gold: I Hate To Say I Told You So But ..."; and my personal favorite: "Panic On The Gold Titanic". Wow! Where were all these stories and foresights two days earlier?

There were just as many reasons put forward explaining the decline. One cited the situation in Cyprus and the fact that the country is looking to sell off gold in order to pay its obligations.

Domestically, a lack of inflation played into the mix. China was noted, as well. With industrial momentum slowing markedly in the Asian nation, many believed demand for precious metals would fall. Then there is the incidence of self-fulfilling decline. Much gold is purchased on margin (credit). If the market declines, margin calls are made and investors have to infuse cash. If they don't have the cash, they give orders to sell. The more that happens, the more gold is sold and the decline accelerates.

So, what's the answer? A glimpse of it may have come the next day. The stock market rebounded more than 150 points as gold showed signs of beginning to rise again — a modest rise but northward all the same.

There are no functioning crystal balls and yesterday's psychics will always be around to spout that they knew best. Speaking of which, the next day, as the markets perked up quite a few new psychics wrote and blogged about how they see gold stabilizing and climbing back into favor.

I take it all with a grain of salt. What happens will happen no matter what anyone writes. I'm just glad our coveted American Eagle gold coins are far from being tarnished by all of this.

Editor's Note: A JPEG visual of an American Eagle gold coin has been sent with this column.

To find out more about Peter Rexford and features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.

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