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Tom Rosshirt
Tom Rosshirt
27 Apr 2013
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The Old (Electoral) College Try

Comment

Ever since their disappointing results in the November elections, Republicans have been doing what any competitor does after a loss: figuring out how to win the next one.

Many of the Republican Party's voices have been calling for a new party that can appeal more widely to women, gays, Hispanics, African-Americans and young people — demographics that now favor Democrats. A less strident tone on gay rights, a higher tax rate on the richest, a comprehensive immigration proposal backed by Republicans — all these are signs of efforts that may broaden the political appeal of the Republican Party.

Yet as the new Republican Party appeared eager to regain power by appealing to the majority, the old Republican Party continued its efforts to wield power with a minority.

The theme is well-established. In 2010, the Supreme Court, in its Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission decision, overturned precedent to allow direct funding of political campaigns by corporations, which benefited the few over the many. In 2012, many states pushed voter ID laws that would make it harder for minorities and young people to vote, to benefit the few over the many. Last week, the Republicans in the Senate retained their right to block action with only 41 votes, which benefits the few over the many. At the same time, an appeals court found President Barack Obama's recess appointments to the National Labor Relations Board unconstitutional.

In combination, the previous two developments ensure that even though the voters put a Democrat in the White House and a Democratic majority in the Senate, the Democratic president can't get the Senate to vote on his nominees if 41 out of 100 say no. These rules, according to The Washington Post, "give the minority more rights than any other legislative body in the world."

The power of the minority was a deep worry of James Madison's. During the Constitutional Convention, Madison, who is known as the "Father of the Constitution," was adamantly opposed to the idea that each state should have the same number of senators, simply because it meant that the few could impose their will on the many. At one point in the convention, he looked ahead to the admission of new states and warned that if new and sparsely populated states were to "have an equal vote ... a more objectionable minority than ever might give law to the whole."

Madison lost that debate, so today Wyoming and Idaho have as much power in the Senate as California and New York.

Concessions to the minority were a price of forming a country. But how much is too much?

In five states that Obama won in November — Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Virginia and Wisconsin — Republicans are proposing a change in the way they apportion electoral votes. Currently, with exceptions in Maine and Nebraska, the presidential candidate who wins the most votes in a state wins all that state's electoral votes. But Republicans in these states are proposing changes that would give more power to fewer people. The Michigan proposal, if it had been in place in November, would have awarded Mitt Romney nine electoral votes and Obama seven, even though Obama won the state. The Virginia plan, if it had been in place in November, would have given Romney nine votes and Obama four, even though Obama won the state.

Republican National Chairman Reince Priebus supports the move, citing "local control."

This is not about local control. It is about minority control. This is about making the person with fewer votes president.

It was traumatic enough last time. If it were to happen again, it would create triple the ill will — because it would be happening again and because it would be happening not because of an archaic quirk in the Constitution but because of an explicit partisan ploy to manipulate the system so the minority could rule.

It could well provoke a constitutional crisis — a new president not seen as legitimate, members of Congress more bitterly divided, animosity between parties far worse. The hostility in Washington would make the debt ceiling debate look like an ad for summer camp.

Last week, the Republican governor of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal, said, "It's time for a new Republican Party that talks like adults." The adults of Jindal's Republican Party should talk right now to the kids at the party and say, "Think it through."

Then Jindal and his fellow adults should start working faster to build a Republican Party that can compete and win without tricks, because either the Republican Party will change its policies to win over a majority or it will rig the system to rule with a minority. If Republicans don't do a good job with the first approach, they're going to intensify their efforts on the second.

Tom Rosshirt was a national security speechwriter for President Bill Clinton and a foreign affairs spokesman for Vice President Al Gore. Email him at tomrosshirt@gmail.com. To find out more about Tom Rosshirt and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.

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Comments

5 Comments | Post Comment
Instead, The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps. There would no longer be a handful of 'battleground' states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in 80% of the states that now are just 'spectators' and ignored after the conventions.

When the bill is enacted by states with a majority of the electoral votes– enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.

The presidential election system that we have today was not designed, anticipated, or favored by the Founding Fathers but, instead, is the product of decades of evolutionary change precipitated by the emergence of political parties and enactment by 48 states of winner-take-all laws, not mentioned, much less endorsed, in the Constitution.

The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for President. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.

In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in recent closely divided Battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR – 80%, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: AZ – 67%, CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.

The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 states with 243 electoral votes. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions with 132 electoral votes - 49% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.

NationalPopularVote
Follow National Popular Vote on Facebook via NationalPopularVoteInc
Comment: #1
Posted by: oldgulph
Fri Feb 1, 2013 2:50 PM
oldgulph,
While I like the idea, one problem I see with this is that every vote would potentially be contested because every vote would be equally important. In the 2000 election, returns were also a mess in New Mexico, as I recall. Why no fight? Because the electoral vote was clear and would not have been changed by the outcome, even if it shifted a few thousand votes one way or another, thus nobody cared. If, on the other hand, the election was being decided by nationwide popular vote, then every vote counts and every precinct with any anomalies will likely be challenged. Precincts where the narrowly loosing candidate was strongly preferred would also be tempted to manipulate the vote in a recount. In a close election, it might be many weeks before the dust settled and then there would still be claims of fraud. The winning candidate would have even less legitimacy than Bush did in 2000. (in the eyes of the Gore voters)
Comment: #2
Posted by: Mark
Fri Feb 1, 2013 8:03 PM
Re: Mark
The current presidential election system makes a repeat of 2000 more likely, not less likely. All you need is a thin and contested margin in a single state with enough electoral votes to make a difference. It's much less likely that the national vote will be close enough that voting irregularities in a single area will swing enough net votes to make a difference. If we'd had National Popular Vote in 2000, a recount in Florida would not have been an issue.

The idea that recounts will be likely and messy with National Popular Vote is distracting.

The 2000 presidential election was an artificial crisis created because of Bush's lead of 537 popular votes in Florida. Gore's nationwide lead was 537,179 popular votes (1,000 times larger). Given the miniscule number of votes that are changed by a typical statewide recount (averaging only 274 votes); no one would have requested a recount or disputed the results in 2000 if the national popular vote had controlled the outcome. Indeed, no one (except perhaps almanac writers and trivia buffs) would have cared that one of the candidates happened to have a 537-vote margin in Florida.

Recounts are far more likely in the current system of state-by-state winner-take-all methods.

The possibility of recounts should not even be a consideration in debating the merits of a national popular vote. No one has ever suggested that the possibility of a recount constitutes a valid reason why state governors or U.S. Senators, for example, should not be elected by a popular vote.

The question of recounts comes to mind in connection with presidential elections only because the current system so frequently creates artificial crises and unnecessary disputes.

We do and would vote state by state. Each state manages its own election and is prepared to conduct a recount.

The state-by-state winner-take-all system is not a firewall, but instead causes unnecessary fires.
“It's an arsonist itching to burn down the whole neighborhood by torching a single house.” Hertzberg

Given that there is a recount only once in about 160 statewide elections, and given there is a presidential election once every four years, one would expect a recount about once in 640 years with the National Popular Vote. The actual probability of a close national election would be even less than that because recounts are less likely with larger pools of votes.

The average change in the margin of victory as a result of a statewide recount was a mere 296 votes in a 10-year study of 2,884 elections.

No recount would have been warranted in any of the nation's 57 previous presidential elections if the outcome had been based on the nationwide count.

The common nationwide date for meeting of the Electoral College has been set by federal law as the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December. With both the current system and the National Popular Vote, all counting, recounting, and judicial proceedings must be conducted so as to reach a "final determination" prior to the meeting of the Electoral College. In particular, the U.S. Supreme Court has made it clear that the states are expected to make their "final determination" six days before the Electoral College meets.
Comment: #3
Posted by: oldgulph
Sat Feb 2, 2013 9:43 AM
Re: MarkThe current state-by-state winner-take-all system of awarding electoral votes maximizes the incentive and opportunity for fraud, coercion, intimidation, confusion, and voter suppression. A very few people can change the national outcome by adding, changing, or suppressing a small number of votes in one closely divided battleground state. With the current system all of a state's electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who receives a bare plurality of the votes in each state. The sheer magnitude of the national popular vote number, compared to individual state vote totals, is much more robust against manipulation.

National Popular Vote would limit the benefits to be gained by fraud or voter suppression. One suppressed vote would be one less vote. One fraudulent vote would only win one vote in the return. In the current electoral system, one fraudulent vote could mean 55 electoral votes, or just enough electoral votes to win the presidency without having the most popular votes in the country.

The closest popular-vote election in American history (in 1960), had a nationwide margin of more than 100,000 popular votes. The closest electoral-vote election in American history (in 2000) was determined by 537 votes, all in one state, when there was a lead of 537,179 (1,000 times more) popular votes nationwide.

For a national popular vote election to be as easy to switch as 2000, it would have to be two hundred times closer than the 1960 election--and, in popular-vote terms, forty times closer than 2000 itself.

Which system offers vote suppressors or fraudulent voters a better shot at success for a smaller effort?
Comment: #4
Posted by: oldgulph
Sat Feb 2, 2013 10:00 AM
Just want to thank oldgulph and Mark for your comments. Food for thought.
Comment: #5
Posted by: morgan
Wed Feb 6, 2013 1:32 PM
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