Liberal> Roger Simon> The Republican Riddle

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The Republican Riddle

The race for the Republican presidential nomination is a muddle. It is clouded by confusion and illuminated only by brief flashes of perplexity.

Rudy Giuliani leads in virtually every national poll but trails in the key states that may decide the nominee.

Mitt Romney leads in key states but continues to rank an anemic fourth in national polls.

Fred Thompson gets terrible opening-night reviews but debuts in second place nationwide.

John McCain, once the front-runner, then written off as dead, now is rebounding — but how far can he go?

Then there is Mike Huckabee. Everybody's choice for vice president, could he actually sneak away with the top spot?

Though I usually rely on my own impeccable judgment in such matters, today I ask three top Republicans for their assessment of the race thus far. They are not aligned with any campaign, which is another sign of just how smart they are.

Whit Ayres is a pollster and consultant who worked in Lamar Alexander's 1996 presidential campaign and in numerous Senate and governor races. He is an expert on Southern politics.

"This is a completely wide-open race, and any of three or four or five candidates can actually win," Ayres says. "The insiders' front-runner is Mitt Romney; the national front-runner is Rudy Giuliani; John McCain needs to continue clawing his way back and get some money; Thompson needs to justify his high-flying numbers; and Mike Huckabee needs millions of dollars in the bank.

"The others have to stop Romney somewhere before Feb. 5 (when more than 20 states will vote). It could be in New Hampshire or Florida. But it has got to be somewhere. The others can't wait until Feb. 5. to defeat him.

"Free media (i.e., news coverage) will be a very important factor in this race. What you guys do has a great effect. It affects the talk, and it affects the donors."

Greg Mueller was a senior adviser to Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes in their presidential campaigns and is an expert on conservative politics.

"The race is very fluid, and I don't think that is going to change until the voting occurs," he says.

"Romney has spent a lot of money in early states and has run a good campaign, but as people see TV ads by other candidates — assuming they can afford it — how solid is Romney's support in Iowa and New Hampshire going to be?

"The national polls will change based on who wins Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney has run a flawless campaign, but how does he sustain it? How does he stay fresh and new?

"Fred Thompson has positioned himself as somewhat of a conservative Washington outsider, mainstream and anti-Washington. But as he starts to debate, as he gets hammered by the talk shows, and as voters ask him very specific questions about issues in Iowa and New Hampshire, how well will he respond and what kind of headlines will that generate?"

Ken Duberstein was Ronald Reagan's chief of staff from 1988 to 1989 and deputy undersecretary of labor for Gerald Ford. Duberstein is very well connected within the Republican Party.

"Rudy is a front-runner, but he has a very tenuous hold on it," Duberstein says. "Fred has not electrified anybody. McCain seems to be having a small bounce, but he has incredible hurdles to overcome. Romney is dealing with being the Kerry of '08, being perceived as a flip-flopper. I don't see anybody breaking from the pack right now.

"Thompson is a place for voters to have a safe landing, but it may be a fleeting landing. A bird lands on a limb and flies away. The limb is safe for the moment, but not a permanent home. And I will be very surprised if Newt (Gingrich) runs.

"Who in the Republican Party can demonstrate that they are the agent of change? Nobody has clarified that. Nobody has been that bold voice, a voice not to repudiate Bush but to say how things will change in the future.

"What unifies us? The unifying force in the Republican Party will be the prospect of Hillary Clinton being the Democratic nominee. Whether you are a moderate, conservative, evangelical or establishment Republican, sooner or later, the Republicans will come together and coalesce around who can beat Hillary.

"Right now, that is very much up in the air."

To find out more about Roger Simon, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.