creators.com opinion web
Conservative Opinion General Opinion
Mark Shields
Mark Shields
18 Oct 2014
Recognizing Heroes in Our Midst

That terrifying Tuesday morning, now 14 Septembers ago, when terrorists connected to al-Qaida hijacked … Read More.

11 Oct 2014
Truly Right From the Start

In September 2002, before the Bush administration got its green light from a supine Congress and a full six … Read More.

4 Oct 2014
An Obvious Republican Front-runner

Let me admit upfront that I have a real soft spot for people who dare to run for public office. For most of us,… Read More.

A Week Is a Lifetime in Politics

Comment

Back when men still wore hats and ladies wore gloves, my precinct committeewoman made me memorize an iron rule of American politics: A week is a lifetime politically, and three months is an eternity.

That wise maxim has apparently been forgotten by the would-be 2012 Republican challengers to President Barack Obama, not a single one of whom — with quite possibly only 40 weeks remaining before the first, real main event of the 2012 presidential nominating fight, the crucial Iowa caucuses — has yet to declare her or his White House candidacy.

Because our presidential elections are held on November in years divisible by four and because organizing separate presidential organizations simultaneously in several dozen states requires people, money and, most of all, time, a candidate must generally decide to run no later than late winter of the year before the election. That would be now.

The problem is that the decision to challenge or not to challenge an incumbent president is almost always overly influenced by the challenger's judgment of the incumbent president's political strength a year and a half before the actual general election voting.

Consider the late winter of 1983, when President Ronald Reagan's re-election prospects for November 1984 were, to put it bluntly, bleak. When asked by the Gallup Poll, "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronald Reagan is handling his job as president," only 35 percent of the Gipper's constituents gave him a positive grade.

So what happened? Democrats rushed into the race — including Walter Mondale, John Glenn, Gary Hart, Alan Cranston, George McGovern and Jesse Jackson — sure that Reagan was beatable. But if a week is a lifetime politically, then a year and a half is a millennium.

By November 1984, Reagan was getting favorable grades from 60 percent in the Gallup Poll and, more importantly, was carrying 49 of the 50 states while wining a landslide re-election.

In 1988, Reagan's vice president, George H.W. Bush won his own White House race, and as he prepared in 1991 to run for re-election, he looked unbeatable. After Saddam Hussein had invaded and occupied Kuwait, President Bush 41 and his secretary of state, Jim Baker organized a 32-country coalition to drive Saddam from Kuwait, won support for that action from both a Democratic Congress and from the United Nations and then, in a remarkable four-day military offensive, won the first clear-cut American military victory since 1945.

President Bush in the winter of 1991 — a year and a half before his re-election day — stood at an unprecedented 89 percent favorable in the Gallup Poll. One by one, leading Democrats — Dick Gephardt, Al Gore, Lloyd Bentsen, Bill Bradley, Mario Cuomo — who had openly or secretly lusted after the presidency saw Bush as unbeatable and came to the same decision: some variation of, "Rather than run, I choose to spend more time with my family."

Only five Democrats rolled the dice that year —Tom Harkin, Bob Kerrey, Jerry Brown, the late Paul Tsongas and Bill Clinton. By Labor Day of 1992, President Bush's favorable number in the Gallup had plummeted to 29 percent, and he would lose that November to Bill Clinton. A week is a lifetime.

As of today, President Obama looks formidable: a 50 percent favorable rating according to Gallup, no apparent primary challenge and, quite possibly, the nation's first billion dollar campaign treasury. But Republicans should remember 1984 and 1992 before concluding that the race against Obama is impossible. If gasoline goes to six bucks a gallon — not impossible — no incumbent will be safe in 2012. Because a week truly can be a lifetime in politics.

To find out more about Mark Shields and read his past columns, visit the Creators Syndicate web page at www.creators.com.

DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS.COM

COPYRIGHT 2011 MARK SHIELDS



Comments

2 Comments | Post Comment
Yeah Mark, but what I wonder what you would say if five Yale anthropology undergrads were hired before they graduated?
Comment: #1
Posted by: RE Mant
Fri Mar 18, 2011 6:09 PM
With all the 'Republicrats' that have infiltrated the Democratic party, and his own party having completely disempowered Obama, for the first time in my life I'm failing to see how it matters who wins in 2012. Let's put Palin in. At least it might make a quick and clean end of it all. As far as I can see America is over as anything more special than the next Banana Republic down the street. The Republic has fallen, the democratic process has been interrupted and will probably never be reestablished.
Comment: #2
Posted by: GeorgeC
Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:51 AM
Already have an account? Log in.
New Account  
Your Name:
Your E-mail:
Your Password:
Confirm Your Password:

Please allow a few minutes for your comment to be posted.

Enter the numbers to the right:  
Creators.com comments policy
More
Mark Shields
Oct. `14
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
28 29 30 1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31 1
About the author About the author
Write the author Write the author
Printer friendly format Printer friendly format
Email to friend Email to friend
View by Month
Jill Lawrence
Jill LawrenceUpdated 23 Oct 2014
Froma Harrop
Froma HarropUpdated 23 Oct 2014
Jim Hightower
Jim HightowerUpdated 22 Oct 2014

3 May 2014 The Guest of Honor

12 Sep 2009 The End of the "Me" Generation?

22 Jan 2010 Special Elections Can Really Be Special