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Bad Arithmetic: Top Romney Economist Admits 'Jobs Plan' Numbers Don't Compute

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When innocent citizens asked about unemployment last night at the town hall presidential debate on Long Island, would Mitt Romney again tout his plan to create 12 million jobs? Unable to Etch-a-Sketch away that often repeated claim — one that he has hired several conservative economists to endorse — the Republican candidate had little choice. It's up on his campaign website, it's there in his own well-advertised words, and it is the central appeal of his candidacy for the non-billionaire voting bloc.

But there is a serious problem with that promise. It now stands exposed as a complete fraud by Glenn Kessler, the Washington Post fact-checker, who pinned upon it his highest (lowest?) prize of four "Pinocchios."

Here is how Kessler reached that troubling conclusion. After requesting the specific numbers behind Romney's jobs claim, he soon discovered that the citations offered by the campaign made no sense, and, in fact, the attempted deceptions were transparently obvious.

Romney's economic program has three basic elements that he says will produce those 12 million jobs, as outlined in a TV ad quoted by Kessler:

First, my energy independence policy means more than 3 million new jobs, many of them in manufacturing. My tax reform plan to lower rates for the middle class and for small business creates 7 million more. And expanding trade, cracking down on China and improving job training takes us to over 12 million new jobs."

In the studies cited by the Romney campaign, however, those figures practically debunked themselves.

The study that supposedly justifies the 7 million jobs produced by tax reform, written by a Rice University professor, covers a 10-year period — not four years.

The study supposedly proving that his energy program will produce 3 million jobs is a Citigroup report that doesn't even examine Romney's plan; it includes fuel-economy requirements he has criticized and projects an 8-year timeline. And the International Trade Commission report that supposedly shows how an intellectual property crackdown on China will produce those final 2 million jobs is similarly distorted, using outdated employment figures and ridiculous speculation to reach a conclusion that even its authors warn is "unclear."

For the coup de grace, Kessler quoted an email from Romney economic advisor R. Glenn Hubbard confessing that "the 3+7+2 does not make up the 12 million jobs in the first four years (different source of growth and different time period)."

Kessler didn't attempt to estimate what, if anything, those studies might indicate about the results of Romney's plan. There may well be no substance to them at all. But it is possible to estimate a best-case based on a revised timeline, taking 40 percent of the expected tax-reform-related jobs plus 50 percent of the energy-independence-related jobs, which comes to a measly 4.3 million jobs (the China-crackdown jobs are too phony to include at all).

Describing the deficiencies of the Republican program, a famous man once said, "it's arithmetic" — and as usual, the Romney campaign can't seem to add or subtract without cheating.

So much for the "Jobs Plan." What understandably puzzled Kessler — who has never hesitated to pillory Barack Obama — is why the Romney campaign would send out supporting material that can be so easily and simply dismissed as bogus. The answer may be that, with due respect to the Post, they can reasonably expect to get away with such fakery in a media environment where lies usually go unchallenged.

To find out more about Joe Conason, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.

COPYRIGHT 2012 CREATORS.COM



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1 Comments | Post Comment
Sir;... What a lot of republicans do not realize is that Reaganism and the flow of wealth he started in the direction of the wealthy has not ended, and has only grown worse at the expense of balanced budgets... More of the problem is not a part of the solution... The world has changed, and it is time for the republicans to grow up and change with it... We need industry and good jobs to support our government... While cheap imports made with our capital are bleeding wealth out of this land, the rich and the republicans are demanding a larger military to defend our capital abroad... Who in the hell has that kind of money???...
After a while we will be like the old confederacy and devaluing the paper we print minting money... Their rich refused taxation as ours do today, and yet each and everyone demanded defense from the army... The solutions of by gone days will not work... More money pumped into the economy to prime it is soon syphoned off by the rich...
Let the rich demand all the money, that rather than work for profit, all the people with their taxes will pay the rich for doing nothing... How much profit must be guaranteed to those people before they will stay in America and employ people???... They want us to pay them for employing people while they keep all the profit and pay no taxes...
The rich are asking for it; and by God they should get it; but whether the people do Romoneyism like they did Reaganism, or not, we are on a short road with a bridge out...There is still plenty of wealth out there... What it will take to get all the wealth out of the hands of the poor must require their denial of inalienable rights as the price of a meal... What it will take is vast suffering and carnage; but this may be the last chance for the ruling class to actually rule and give full expression to their class avarice... Since I have both a heart and a brain, I don't think the republicans have any good or new ideas; and the old ideas never really worked...
Thanks...Sweeney
Comment: #1
Posted by: James A, Sweeney
Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:54 PM
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