Republicans: Hold the Hubris
I am as delighted as any conservative could be about predictions for Tuesday's election. But the exultation among some on the right is making me nervous. It's not just superstition. The votes haven't even been counted, and yet some are already over-interpreting Republican victories as a thorough repudiation of everything Democratic, socialist, and liberal. The era of big government is over ... again.
As nice as that would be, there are reasons to doubt that the coming election, even if it turns out to be the tsunami of some forecasts, actually conveys quite that message.
Yes, the Republicans have achieved a 50 to 43 percent (WSJ/NBC) or a 51 percent to 41 lead (Gallup) over Democrats in the generic congressional ballot — Gallup's result being the largest gap ever recorded in a midterm election. But, as Rasmussen reports, Democratic Party affiliation still exceeds that of Republicans by a narrow margin. The Democrats have lost ground since 2008, but the disenchanted have moved into the independent column, not toward the Republicans in party affiliation.
Republicans are overwhelmingly likely to regain control of the House and thus ring in the end of the Pelosi regime. They will then be situated to prevent President Obama from doing a whole lot more damage to the nation. But a Republican Congress, even with control of both houses, cannot repeal Obamacare, or FinReg, or even the Lilly Ledbetter "fair pay" act, over Obama's veto. To repeal these damaging laws, and to pass new ones, a new president will be required.
Midterm electorates differ from general election voters. Typically, only about 40 percent of eligible voters show up for midterm elections. In 2008, by contrast, 61.6 percent of voters participated. African-American voters, 65.2 percent of whom voted in 2008, continue to offer 90 percent support to Obama. Historically, African-American turnout in midterm elections has been lower than white turnout, usually significantly so. But in 2012, with Obama again on the ballot, black voters can be expected to show up in force. Some analysts suggest that even with his low standing among white voters, Obama could win a second term if his 2008 margins among Hispanic and Asian voters were to hold.
Even as Republicans have benefited from dissatisfaction with the passage of Obamacare — the symbol of all that is wrong with Democratic governance — some polls suggest that enthusiasm for repeal is mixed. While conservatives long to annul that execrable law and replace it with thoroughgoing free market reforms, the electorate is not so unambiguous. According to an AP poll, while 37 percent of likely voters favor outright repeal of Obamacare, 36 percent want the law modified to do even more. When likely voters were asked whom they trust more as stewards of the health care system, 46 percent cited Democrats and 47 percent cited Republicans — a statistical tie. And those under the age of 30 were most likely to favor expanding the health care law.
A strong majority of likely voters, 56 percent, according to a CBS poll, are optimistic about the next two years of the Obama presidency. And as recently as last month, a larger portion of respondents to an AP poll (68 percent) disapproved of Republicans in Congress as disapproved of Democrats (60 percent).
Republicans and business interests continue to be blamed by a majority of voters for the recession. A Bloomberg poll found that 88 percent pointed to the mortgage industry, and 82 percent to Wall Street and bankers for the economic crisis. Sixty-six percent of respondents blame George W. Bush's stewardship for the poor state of the economy, 57 percent cited Republicans in Congress, and 53 percent named congressional Democrats. Only 32 percent of respondents to a WSJ/NBC poll said that Obama's policies were responsible for the poor economy.
Obama and the Democrats misinterpreted the 2008 results — concluding that the nation's exhaustion with Bush represented a wholesale conversion to aggressive liberalism. Newt Gingrich and the Republicans similarly misread the 1994 election, concluding that rejection of President Clinton's initial policies represented a comprehensive endorsement of a conservative, small-government philosophy.
Wise Republicans will pocket the coming victory but hold the hubris. One in ten Americans is out of a job. Independents are swinging, for now, to the opposition party. But the case for free market reforms — in health care and in other realms — has yet to be made. Republicans are being offered an opportunity to persuade, nothing more.
To find out more about Mona Charen and read features by other Creators Syndicate columnists and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate web page at www.creators.com.
COPYRIGHT 2010 CREATORS.COM 
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It is not A misinterpretation of election results - it is the lack of principles and follow-through by those we elect. Did President Reagan misinterpret the election results? No, and he followed through on why we elected him, and swept to a huge reelection and an election of his VP to President. Not until H.W. Bush abandoned The course Reagan plotted did we lose an election.
Comment: #1
Posted by: Jef
Fri Oct 29, 2010 6:12 AM
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Mona Charen, Good Article! I forwarding the following I just received. As you can see, Taxpayers have had enough of big government, the bailouts and sellouts, and on brink of bankruptcy! For past five (5) decades, incompetent, corrupt, and greedy politicians have destroyed America! Do you supposed America is going to be the next Third World Country? ============================================================================
You may have seen this one before but it certainly bears repeating and some
thought before the Election Day is upon us!
"I'm 63 and I'm Tired" by Robert A. Hall
I'm 63. Except for one semester in college when jobs were scarce and a six-month period when I
was between jobs, but job-hunting every day, I've worked, hard, since I was 18. Despite some
health challenges, I still put in 50-hour weeks, and haven't called in sick in seven or eight years. I
make a good salary, but I didn't inherit my job or my income, and I worked to getwhere I am.
Given the economy, there's no retirement in sight, and I'm tired. Very tired.
I'm tired of being told that I have to "spread the wealth" to people who don't have my work ethic.
I'm tired of being told the government will takethe money I earned, by force if necessary, and
give it to people too lazy to earn it.
I'm tired of being told that I have to pay more taxes to "keep people in their homes." Sure, if they
lost their jobs or got sick, I'm willing to help. But if they bought McMansions at three times the
price of our paid-off, $250,000 condo, on one-third of my salary, then let the left-wing
Congress-critters who passed Fannie and Freddie and the Community Reinvestment Act that
created the bubble help them with their own money.
I'm tired of being told how bad America is by left-wing millionaires like Michael Moore, George
Soros and Hollywood Entertainers who live in luxury because of the opportunities America
offers. In thirty years, if they get their way,the United States will have the economy of Zimbabwe,
the freedom of the press of China , the crime and violence of Mexico , the tolerance for
Christian people of Iran , and the freedom of speech of Venezuela .
I'm tired of being told that Islam is a "Religion of Peace," when every day I can read dozens of
stories of Muslim men killing their sisters, wives and daughters for their family "honor"; of
Muslims rioting over some slight offense; of Muslims murdering Christian and Jews because
they aren't "believers"; of Muslims burning schools for girls; of Muslims stoning teenage rape
victims to death for "adultery"; of Muslims mutilating the genitals of little girls; all in the name of
Allah, because the Qur'an and Shari'a law tells them to.
I'm tired of being told that "race doesn't matter" in the post-racial world of Obama, when it's all
that matters in affirmative action jobs, lower college admission and graduation standards for
minorities (harming them the most), government contract set-asides, tolerance for the ghetto
culture of violence and fatherless children that hurts minorities more than anyone, and in the
appointment of U.S.. Senators from Illinois .
I think it's very cool that we have a black president and that a black child is doing her homework
at the desk where Lincoln wrote the Emancipation Proclamation. I just wish the black president
was Condi Rice, or someone who believes more in freedom and the individual and less
arrogantly of an all-knowing government.
I'm tired of a news media that thinks Bush's fundraising and inaugural expenses were obscene,
but that think Obama's, at triple the cost, were wonderful; that thinks Bush exercising daily was
a waste of presidential time, but Obama exercising is a great example for the public to control
weight and stress; that picked over every line of Bush's military records, but never demanded
that Kerry release his; that slammed Palin, with two years as governor, for being too
inexperienced for VP, but touted Obama with three years as senator as potentially the best
president ever. Wonder why people are dropping their subscriptions or switching to Fox News?
Get a clue. I didn't vote for Bush in 2000, but the media and Kerry drove me to his camp in 2004.
I'm tired of being told that out of "tolerance for other cultures" we must let Saudi Arabia use our
oil money to fund mosques and mandrassa Islamic schools to preach hate in America , while no
American group is allowed to fund a church, synagogue or religious school in Saudi Arabia to
teach love and tolerance.
I'm tired of being told I must lower my living standard to fight global warming, which no one is
allowed to debate. My wife and I live in a two-bedroom apartment and carpool together five
miles to our jobs. We also own a three-bedroom condo where our daughter and granddaughter
live. Our carbon footprint is about 5% of Al Gore's, and if you're greener than Gore, you're green
enough.
I'm tired of being told that drug addicts have a disease, and I must help support and treat them,
and pay for the damage they do. Did a giant germ rush out of a dark alley, grab them, and stuff
white powder up their noses while they tried to fight it off? I don't think Gay people choose to be
Gay, but I damn sure think druggies chose to take drugs. And I'm tired of harassment from cool
people treating me like a freak when I tell them I never tried marijuana.
I'm tired of illegal aliens being called "undocumented workers," especially the ones who aren't
working, but are living on welfare or crime. What's next? Calling drug dealers, "Undocumented
Pharmacists"? And, no, I'm not against Hispanics. Most of them are Catholic, and it's been a few
hundred years since Catholics wanted to kill me for my religion. I'm willing to fast track for
citizenship any Hispanic person, who can speak English, doesn't have a criminal record and
who is self-supporting without family on welfare, or who serves honorably for three years in our
military.... Those are the citizens we need.
I'm tired of latte liberals and journalists, who would never wear the uniform of the Republic
themselves, or let their entitlement-handicapped kids near a recruiting station, trashing our
military. They and their kids can sit at home, never having to make split-second decisions under
life and death circumstances, and bad mouth better people than themselves. Do bad things
happen in war? You bet. Do our troops sometimes misbehave? Sure. Does this compare with the
atrocities that were the policy of our enemies for the last fifty years and still are? Not even close.
So here's the deal. I'll let myself be subjected to all the humiliation and abuse that was heaped
on terrorists at Abu Ghraib or Gitmo, and the critics can let themselves be subject to captivity by
the Muslims, who tortured and beheaded Daniel Pearl in Pakistan, or the Muslims who tortured
and murdered Marine Lt. Col. William Higgins in Lebanon, or the Muslims who ran the
blood-spattered Al Qaeda torture rooms our troops found in Iraq, or the Muslims who cut off the
heads of schoolgirls in Indonesia, because the girls were Christian. Then we'll compare notes.
British and American soldiers are the only troops in history that civilians came to for help and
handouts, instead of hiding from in fear.
I'm tired of people telling me that their party has a corner on virtue and the other party has a
corner on corruption. Read the papers; bums are bipartisan. And I'm tired of people telling me
we need bipartisanship. I live in Illinois , where the "Illinois Combine" of Democrats has worked
to loot the public for years. Not to mention the tax cheats in Obama's cabinet.
I'm tired of hearing wealthy athletes, entertainers and politicians of both parties talking about
innocent mistakes, stupid mistakes or youthful mistakes, when we all know they think their only
mistake was getting caught. I'm tired of people with a sense of entitlement, rich or poor.
Speaking of poor, I'm tired of hearing people with air-conditioned homes, color TVs and two cars
called poor. The majority of Americans didn't have that in 1970, but we didn't know we were
"poor." The poverty pimps have to keep changing the definition of poor to keep the dollars
flowing.
I'm real tired of people who don't take responsibility for their lives and actions. I'm tired of
hearing them blame the government, or discrimination or big-whatever for their problems.
Yes, I'm damn tired. But I'm also glad to be 63. Because, mostly, I'm not going to have to see the
world these people are making. I'm just sorry for my granddaughter.
Robert A. Hall is a Marine Vietnam veteran who served five terms in the Massachusetts State
Senate.
There is no way this will be widely publicized, unless each of us sends it on!
This is your chance to make a difference.
Comment: #2
Posted by: Shirley deLong
Fri Oct 29, 2010 11:36 AM
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Dear Mona:
The concern with misunderstanding the upcoming results are real; as well as the potential of hubris blinding not only the GOP but the Tea Party as well. What I hope and pray for is that real leadership arises in both parties that understands the best interest of the country depends on bipartisan support of reversal in sufficient strength to overcome Obama's veto pen.
Dave Kendall
Comment: #3
Posted by: Dave Kendall
Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:55 PM
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