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Dick Morris
Dick Morris
20 Oct 2014
Decision Upholding Texas Photo ID Law Can Help Stop Obama's Plan for a One-Party Nation

Those trying to stop Obama from turning America into a one-party nation should hail Friday's Supreme Court … Read More.

16 Oct 2014
Bad Season for Dems

Can it get much worse for Obama? With the stock market in free fall, Ebola making its way to the United States,… Read More.

15 Oct 2014
Dems Using False Flag Strategy to Steal Senate

Failing to persuade voters to support their discredited agenda, Democrats are now determined to use a false … Read More.

GA and LA Likely GOP Wins

Comment

The odds are that Republicans will have taken the Senate by Election Day. But, if not, likely runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana, one in December and the other in January, are likely to hand the gavel to the Republicans, albeit with some delay.

Independents in both races — Rob Maness in Louisiana and Amanda Swafford in Georgia — are very likely to keep either of the major party candidates below 50 percent of the vote on Nov. 4, necessitating a runoff under state law.

But runoffs in these states are very likely to favor the Republicans. In Louisiana, Congressman Bill Cassidy, the Republican challenger, has consistently led Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu in runoff polling. Most of the vote that is going to tea party candidate Rob Maness will likely side with the GOP in the second round. In this case, the French saying applies: "In the first round, you vote with your heart. In the second, you vote with your head."

In Georgia, Democrat Michelle Nunn's Obamaesque assault on Republican candidate David Perdue over his role in restructuring companies and, allegedly, outsourcing jobs, is giving her new momentum. But no poll has ever had her over 50 percent, so a runoff is quite possible.

Runoffs in southern states almost always feature a sharp tilt toward the Republican Party. Voters in the first round often show up at the polls to vote for local Democratic candidates for sheriff, county judge, and council.

In a remnant of the Democratic "solid South" of yesteryear, these offices are overwhelmingly Democrat and the incumbents have strong bases in their communities.

But, in the runoff, very few of these positions will still be on the ballot, most having been resolved on Nov. 4. Turnout will drop in the runoff and downscale voters — particularly minorities — are much less likely to show up.

Also, the Republicans are likely either to gain a majority on Nov. 4 or to miss it narrowly. The GOP seems assured of pickups in Montana, West Virginia, Arkansas and Alaska. The threat of the Pressler candidacy seems to be diminishing in South Dakota and Republican Mike Rounds should win there as well. That makes five seats.

The sixth could come in Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, or North Carolina where the races are neck and neck.

There is still a chance that misguided voters in Kansas will fall for the false flag strategy of Democrat Greg Orman masquerading as an Independent and defeat GOP incumbent Pat Roberts. But the odds are that the GOP will win a majority on Nov. 4.

If they do, Democratic funding for the Louisiana and Georgia runoffs will tend to dry up and Republican funding will grow accordingly. Even if the GOP falls just short of six seats, the effect of the momentum is likely to carry over.

And, after Election Day, Obama is likely to let the other shoe drop and act to end deportations of illegal immigrants, an action he delayed because of the political fallout. But Latinos will only let him wait so long.

COPYRIGHT 2014 DICK MORRIS AND EILEEN MCGANN

DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS.COM



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