creators.com opinion web
Liberal Opinion General Opinion
Ben Shapiro
Ben Shapiro
29 Oct 2014
Turn Down for What?

On the way to the airport the other day, my Uber driver, an elderly Russian chap, turned on a Top 40 radio station.… Read More.

22 Oct 2014
Why Republicans Don't Get It

The Republican Party simply doesn't get it. A new poll this week shows 2012 presidential nominee and 2008 … Read More.

15 Oct 2014
A Bowla Ebola Idiocy

On Monday, The Daily Mail reported that NBC's chief medical correspondent, Nancy Snyderman, had a hankering … Read More.

Barack Obama Is a Loser

Comment

What do you call a candidate who wins 90 percent of the African-American vote, between 30 percent and 50 percent of the Hispanic vote and 40 percent of the white vote in a tight Democratic primary race?

A general election loser.

Apply those percentages to the general election, and the candidate will bomb. In 2004, President Bush won 43 percent of the Hispanic vote, 58 percent of the white vote and 11 percent of the African-American vote. That means that John Kerry did better among Hispanics than Barack Obama has done in the Democratic primaries; better among whites than Obama has done in the Democratic primaries; and almost as well among African-Americans. Obama's coalition is Kerry's, but weaker.

In a general election, candidates must appeal to the broadest base of support in order to win. Relying on small coteries of like-raced voters simply will not do it. And the simple fact is that Barack Obama will gain the Democratic nomination by winning intellectual centers, black voters and just enough whites to beat a deeply flawed Hillary Clinton.

This is not a winning coalition. It is, in fact, a recipe for disaster against John McCain.

The black vote counts for a far greater percentage in the Democratic primaries than it does in the general election; McCain can lose virtually the entire black vote and still win handily (Bush did it in 2000 and 2004, Bush's father did it in 1988 and Reagan did it in 1984 and 1980).

McCain will do far better among whites than Hillary did. Obama cut especially into Clinton's main base of support — whites — by exploiting her gender, winning 40 percent of white males in Indiana and 45 percent of white males in North Carolina. McCain is far more appealing to white men than Clinton. Hillary is perceived as a shrew — most men find her unpalatable.

If Obama could not win more than 45 percent of white men in North Carolina running against Clinton, how can he hope to beat that percentage against McCain?

And then there's the Hispanic vote. For a Democrat, Obama is shockingly unpopular among Hispanics — he won just 32 percent of California's Hispanic vote in the Democratic primary. McCain, by contrast, is incredibly popular among Hispanics — he routinely wins 70 percent of the Hispanic vote in his Arizona Senate contests. Such percentages will not translate directly to the general election, of course — there are more registered Hispanic Democrats than Hispanic Republicans. But those percentages bode ill for Obama, who will struggle to overcome racial barriers, as well as an immigration-friendly Republican like McCain, who also shares many family values with Hispanic Catholics.

These numbers are not likely to change significantly before November. This is because Obama has established himself as a candidate — he is a mixed-race Adlai Stevenson carbon copy with better rhetorical skill. His association with Jeremiah Wright will not win him additional white votes; his elitism will not win him additional lower-class votes; his racial appeal does not have the same appeal to Hispanic voters.

This leaves McCain in the unexpected position of November front-runner. He will almost certainly win Florida and Ohio, and he will challenge in Pennsylvania. He will retain the states President Bush won, as well.

Democrats expected a political realignment in 2008, with a strong new coalition led by young voters. Instead, they may end up with 1972 all over again.

Ben Shapiro, 23, is a graduate of UCLA and Harvard Law School. He is the author of the new book "Project President: Bad Hair and Botox on the Road to the White House," as well as the national bestseller "Brainwashed: How Universities Indoctrinate America's Youth." To find out more about Ben Shapiro and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.

COPYRIGHT 2008 CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC.



Comments

1 Comments | Post Comment
Obama, intelligent ? Without a doubt ! Presidential material, sorry " NO WAY "
Comment: #1
Posted by: Gary Hanlon
Tue Jan 28, 2014 1:54 PM
Already have an account? Log in.
New Account  
Your Name:
Your E-mail:
Your Password:
Confirm Your Password:

Please allow a few minutes for your comment to be posted.

Enter the numbers to the right:  
Creators.com comments policy
More
Ben Shapiro
Oct. `14
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
28 29 30 1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31 1
About the author About the author
Write the author Write the author
Printer friendly format Printer friendly format
Email to friend Email to friend
View by Month
Laura Hollis
Laura HollisUpdated 30 Oct 2014
Deb Saunders
Debra J. SaundersUpdated 30 Oct 2014
Jackie Gingrich Cushman
Jackie Gingrich CushmanUpdated 30 Oct 2014

14 Nov 2009 Celebrating Our Veterans

15 Jun 2011 Obama's Misdirection Strategy

26 Mar 2014 Time for Congress to Telecommute